Sunday night, Donald Trump announced an Iran ceasefire deal had been reached. In the days to come, we will learn more, but it will be critical to keep an eye on what is NOT in this memorandum and to understand the ceasefire will not curtail, let alone end, Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
Council on Foreign Relations Middle East expert Steven Cook told me that his initial impression of the announcement “is that there is nothing in the agreement on which President Trump can actually claim ‘victory.’” He noted, “Even if there is a return to freedom of navigation in the strait, it is merely a return to the Feb. 27 status quo.” Though we are supposedly going to sit down to talk about the Iranian nuclear program, Cook pointed out, “that is what we were doing before he launched the war.” He asked, “Why did he fight this war? Strategically, the president achieved nothing.”
Several aspects of the “deal” already raise troubling issues.
First, Trump and his bumbling negotiators did not force Iran to end its nuclear program or turn over enriched materials. At most, it appears Trump got an agreement to talk about negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program (a concept of a plan, if you will). Trump officials say the memorandum will “lead to” or be “direct line to” the results they promised because they have not actually attained their objectives.
Trump launched a war to topple Iran’s regime, eliminate its missile program and navy, end its support for terror proxies, and, most important, obliterate (really this time) its nuclear weapons program. He achieved none of those. (Andrew Miller pointed out that Iran still has nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, just shy of weapons grade, and we see no evidence that newer nuclear sites not hit in 2025 were damaged.)
Any initial agreement merely would kick off a 60-day period for Iran to open the strait and the United States to wind down its blockade. However, because Trump has retreated many times after threatening renewed military action, virtually no one — certainly not Iran — thinks Iran would be under a credible threat to complete negotiations within that timeframe. Like his never-delivered healthcare plan, an Iran final deal very likely will perpetually be two weeks away.
After the 60 days expires? The New York Times suggested it is “unclear” what happens then. But there is no mystery. Talks could continue — or not. In either case, Trump almost certainly won’t be any closer to a better version of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Second, be wary of empty catchphrases. Each side has recited its respective catchphrase for decades. U.S. officials’ insistence Iran will “never procure or develop nuclear weapons” offers us nothing new. (When even a CBS interviewer can flummox Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth by pointing out that Iran made the same pledge in the JCPOA, you know how weak that talking point is.) The only difference is a U.S. president desperate enough to take Iran’s empty words at face value. We did not need to fight a war, spend billions, lose 13 Americans, kill thousands of civilians, spike gas prices, and give the Iranian regime a new lease on life to get stale platitudes.
Third, the Strait of Hormuz might open — at some point. Or not. The Hormuz Strait is “OPEN TO ALL,” Trump insisted on Saturday … or maybe it has been open all along. (“We have controlled the straits this entire time!” Hegseth lied). Maybe it will be open. Then again, maybe it does not matter. Trump’s “announcing” Sunday evening that the Strait was open turned out to be another meaningless pronouncement. Comically, just minutes later he declared it would not open until Friday. (He can announce whatever he pleases of course; whether Iran is compelled to agree is another matter.)
More than 100 days after the war began, we still do not know if or how Trump will be able to reverse his jaw-dropping strategic blunder. Whatever benefits Iran reaps (e.g., tolls, blackmailing the world with the threat of future oil shocks) from shutting down transit will be entirely attributable to an ill-conceived war only Trump was dumb enough to start.
Finally, this is not anything resembling an “unconditional surrender.” Trump swore Iran would unconditionally surrender, but unconditional surrenders do not take weeks to negotiate. (By definition, deal points are conditions on ending a war.) Whatever we get won’t bear any remote semblance to an unconditional surrenders (e.g., all substantive wins for the victor, requirement for the vanquished loser to give up ample munitions or pay tribute). This seems closer to a Vietnam War-style negotiated retreat.
Aside from Iran, we should acknowledge unconditional surrenders may be anachronistic. Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman explained,“The United States prosecuted a massive strike campaign against Iran, resulting in significant damage to its naval, missile, drone, and air defense capabilities — not to mention the deaths of regime leaders, including top military brass.” However, tactical triumph did not compel capitulation because Iran’s “deployment of relatively inexpensive drones, mines, and missiles has managed to wreak havoc on one of the world’s most critical waterways, countries throughout the Gulf, and select U.S. military assets.”
In other words, Iran’s anything-but-unconditional surrender underlines the flawed premise of Trump’s delusional foreign policy, namely certitude that major powers can annihilate lesser powers at will. However, when asymmetric warfare enables the latter to avoid defeat (let alone “unconditional surrender”), bullies’ fantasy of military dominance collapses. Instead, dimwitted aggressors who mistakenly think 20th-century military assets like battleships and air power give them unchallenged supremacy wind up stuck in foreign quagmires (whether Iran or Ukraine) and besieged at home.
No one should miss the magnitude of America’s tragedy. Fixated on an unworkable foreign policy rooted in colonialism and spheres of power, Trump discarded the only viable means by which the U.S. could maintain unparalleled superpower dominance and prosperity — a rules-based international order under the auspices of the U.S. and its democratic allies. He traded that in for nonstop chaos and national decline.
The bottom line: Fighting ends for now with Iran’s regime in place, its nuclear materials beyond our reach, and issues like its ballistic missile program and support for proxy groups nowhere in the discussion. Worse, Iran comes away with an ace up its sleeve: its proven prowess in halting freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which it may use to extract fees/tolls or threaten future closure. One big clue as to the magnitude of Trump’s blunder: His junior partner Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israel officials are very displeased.
We will have ongoing coverage as the deal points emerge.
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There is NO written, published, mutually agreed upon Memorandum of Understanding confirming anything Trump claims today. Nothing. Not even the concept of a Memorandum of Understanding. If there were, that’s what all of us would be discussing right now.
The JCPOA negotiated and signed by 5 countries under President Obama in 2015 was hundreds of pages long, negotiated by tens of nuclear physicists (not 2 real estate developers), with details that took three years to hammer out. Its first sentence made clear that Iran was not seeking to develop, build or acquire a nuclear weapon. The Strait of Hormuz was intact. Iran was left with virtually no enrichable uranium.
The Gulf States have already made their side deals with Iran, which translates to hundreds of millions in secret bribes — their standard modus operandi.
As General Mark Hertling said this evening, this is all straight out of “I Dream of Jeannie,” with a scantily-clad Barbara Eden blinking her little eyes and going “yes, Master” to please Larry Hagman.
Pure, made-for-TV fiction, arranged for the 17th time to suit the markets — and his birthday — rather than the peace of the Middle East.
"Sunday night, Donald Trump announced an Iran ceasefire deal had been reached."
Of course he did. He's been announcing this every few days for nearly three months. Even now, when the MSM seems to be giving this announcement more credence, I don't have much confidence. Some sources have called it a "cease fire," And we know what's happened to his previous cease fires; the firing doesn't cease very long, a few days, a week...
But he'll continue to "own" this cease fire or peace plan or whatever it gets called, in contrast to his refusal to own the Iran war. And he'll claim that the date it should be remembered on, henceforth, should be June 14.
The Ancients believed the pursuit of fame was actually a desire for immortality and a fear of death. It's not surprising that this pathetic person would fear his ultimate fate.