Donald Trump’s latest authoritarian moves signal weakness, not strength

Publisher's Roundup 39

It can be hard to make sense of how American democracy is doing given the incessant stream of autocratic actions by Donald Trump and the over 100 court rulings against him and other pushback. My view is that Trump has been frustrated in the pursuit of his dictatorial ambitions through the use of the ordinary powers of the presidency, including by all of those court orders, and so he has turned to his extraordinary powers. They include improperly pushing his cronies to bring criminal prosecutions of his perceived enemies and deploying the National Guard and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to crack down on peaceful protest–also wrongly.

These dual policing initiatives represent an outrageous overreach—the besetting sin of dictators, and one that often leads to their ouster. Make no mistake, Trump’s abuse of power is a sign of his insecurity and weakness, and it is setting up massive, peaceful, lawful opposition.

That includes more problems for Trump in litigation, recently recognized by The Atlantic as “the anti-Trump strategy that’s actually working”. That article reported on the success of my and my colleagues’ democracy litigation–the over 150 legal cases and matters that you Contrarians make possible through your paid subscriptions.

On the legal front, I wrote with Richard Painter and Virginia Canter this week about Trump’s push to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James with unmerited charges that match the similarly baseless indictment last week of James Comey. Team Trump is, in our view, headed for bumpy judicial waters in both cases, and the three of us have already lodged multiple ethics complaints, with more on the way. We also analyzed Trump’s deployment of the National Guard and his use of ICE and the legal opposition that has occasioned—including no fewer than three court orders stopping various aspects of Trump’s Chicago activities this week.

But his obstacles are deeper than the courts. As readers of this column know, most backsliding democracies make U-turns. The Trump regime is facing mounting opposition in all of the main dimensions that determine whether autocracy becomes permanently entrenched or whether democracy is poised to make a comeback.

I don’t want to sugarcoat the tremendous damage Trump is doing domestically and internationally and the lives that are being destroyed and even lost as a result. And not every backsliding democracy makes a U-turn. But when you look objectively at the landscape, there are ample reasons to believe Trump is not succeeding in his dictatorial ambitions. That goes well beyond the challenges that he is facing in court.

Trump’s Standing in and at the Polls

A majority of the American people do not like the prosecution of Trump’s adversaries, his deployment of the National Guard, his aggressive immigration processes, his role in shutting down the government to tear health care from millions and the rest of the chaos. No wonder Trump is at historic lows in popularity at this early point in his term.

The results at the polls this year have been similarly devastating. Democrats have won or outperformed in 42 of 43 elections this year. That is a reflection, in part, on Trump’s unpopularity–and augurs ill for the future for Trump’s party.

Public Protest

The size, number, and geographic distribution of protests against the Trump regime in 2025 have been off the charts. We have not seen anything like it in decades.

Now, we will have the second iteration of the No Kings protests on Saturday, Oct. 18. The No Kings protests in June saw a massive coast-to-coast turnout, driven by Trump’s initial National Guard and military deployments in Los Angeles. With Trump’s planned deployments in Portland and Chicago and the deployment in Memphis that started Friday, expect millions of Americans to show up, stand up, and speak out.

Political scientist Erica Chenoweth famously found that when 3.5% of the population stands against a tyrannical regime, it cannot continue (Contrarian Editor-in-Chief Jen Rubin argues it would take much less). We are well on our way to that number of peaceful, lawful protesters.

Press Pressure

In this category, I include both old and new media, including independent outlets like The Contrarian. We, of course, saw this coming from Day One and have been outspoken, but, in recent weeks, we have increasingly been joined by traditional media.

That includes perhaps the single most authoritative source in theUnited States, The New York Times, which has broken with its more careful neutrality in recent weeks. A case in point is its banner headline on the James prosecution: “Letitia James Indicted After Trump’s Pressure Campaign.”

Political Leadership

Experts also look at whether there is unified political opposition to a would-be dictator. The strong example initially set by state attorneys general has been followed in recent months by governors stepping up—and now national political leaders are succeeding in doing the same.

In this column last week, I noted that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and national Democrats were winning the shutdown messaging war by making clear that their votes were not available to strip health care from millions of Americans or make it prohibitively expensive. Another week has gone by, and their success has now become evident—recognized in poll after poll and in Republican disarray.

When you add all that up, there is cause for hope. Obviously, it’s too soon to say which path the United States will take and whether we will follow the majority of other democracies that have executed a U-turn following democratic backsliding. Trump and his enablers certainly are not slowing down, and the damage is vast and growing every day.

But if they are not stopping, neither must the friends of democracy—including you, Contrarians. Our rundown of all the week’s stories here at The Contrarian shows that Trump’s “flood the zone” continues to meet “rule of law shock and awe.” See for yourself…

Shutdown & Congress

How long can this last? April Ryan & Paul Osadebe on the true cost of the government shutdown

On a special edition of The Tea, April Ryan sat down with federal worker and organizer Paul Osadebe to talk about the real and worsening harms of the government shutdown. “This is crisis moment, guys.”

Democrats must stay on message with the shutdown

Norman Ornstein examined how congressional Democrats’ undisciplined messaging has hindered their impact in the past — and how the ongoing shutdown offers an opportunity to realign and strengthen their communication strategy. “When the shutdown ends, the responsibility for the healthcare catastrophe will be clear.”

Is Trump’s Overreach Starting to Fail? Senator Mark Warner with Jen Rubin

Sen. Mark Warner joined Jen to unpack the latest on the MAGA government shutdown, Trump’s notice of “armed conflict” to Congress, and the constitutional strength of our military. “The briefings we’ve got from the administration so far are not satisfying.”

Militarization, ICE and Chicago

We Found the ‘Enemy from Within’

Jen Rubin unpacked the unchecked cruelty of Trump’s troop deployments and ICE overreach, which prove daily that the “enemy within” is him and his lackeys. “ICE’s raid on a Chicago apartment building and the ensuing ICE violence against civilians make clear that Trump has initiated an unconstitutional, brutal war against ordinary Americans.”

Trump’s Fundamentally Anti-Democratic Immigration Strategy

On the Contrarian Podcast this week, Rep. Daniel Goldman (D-N.Y.) and immigration expert Aaron Reichlin-Melnick explained why Stephen Miller and ICE are doing anything but making Americans safer.

Dispatch from Chicago: This is not a ‘war zone’

Lorraine Forte shared her time with a local activist in Chicago fighting to restore her city after last week’s shocking military-style apartment raid and offered a look at the mood on the ground as the city braces for a National Guard deployment. “The city is still reeling.”

The Contrarian covers the Democracy Movement

This week we saw courageous, resilient, mad-as-hell anti-ICE protests in Chicago, Portland and more. Nationwide protests are planned for next Saturday, Oct. 18; find one near you here.

The Global View

Jen Rubin and Ilan Goldenberg on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal

Ilan Goldenberg joined Jen Rubin on Thursday for a live discussion of the Gaza ceasefire deal—what’s in it, what’s not in it, and what’s likely to unfold next, along with the case for optimism. “Now is an opportunity.”

The UN and the Peril of Passivity

Roberto Valadéz wrote on the existential crossroads faced by the United Nations as the Trump administration demeans and defunds its vital work. Part of the way forward, he argued, is a stronger PR strategy. “The United Nations is not a failed project; it is an unfinished one.”

The Nobel Prize is about character, not headlines

Brian O’Neill analyzed Trump’s Peace Prize fixation, which reveals far more about him than about peace, and put forward far more deserving (and likely) candidates for this year’s honor. “Facts matter. So do deliverables.”

The Movie Iran Doesn’t Want You to See

Culture columnist Meredith Blake wrote on Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, a film inspired by Panahi’s experiences as a political prisoner that began as secret iPhone footage and has since won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. “With the movie arriving stateside next week and the Iranian regime no doubt closely monitoring its reception overseas, we can only hope the acclaim becomes truly deafening.”

Will the ceasefire hold? Steven Cook on the feasibility of the Hamas-Israel peace deal

Middle East expert Steven Cook joins Jen to discuss the hopeful end of hostilities in a region that hasn’t seen peace in decades. Who knew it would take a transactional, American bully like Trump to convince Netanyahu to finally accept a deal?

Behind the Curtain

The REAL state of the economy & America’s future as an economic powerhouse with Justin Wolfers

Justin Wolfers joined Jen for a must-watch breakdown of the actual health of the economy under Trump—something the administration is doing its best to obfuscate. “We are flying blind right now.”

Trump’s blueprint for tyranny

Austin Sarat analyzed Trump’s “Compact for Excellence in Higher Education” as a blatant attempt to further control universities across the country—and a precedent for further attacks on freedoms far outside academia. “Think what I think. Do what I do. Or, else.”

DOJ & SCOTUS

Cold comfort: The DOJ says it stands with survivors, but words aren’t enough

Jacqueline Kelly and Mimi Rocah wrote on the DOJ’s hollow commitments to anti-trafficking efforts and victims of sexual crimes. By prioritizing political interests over justice, they argued, the Justice Department is jeopardizing the work of law enforcement to protect survivors.

If this isn’t vindictive prosecution, what is? Andrew Weissmann on James Comey criminal charges

Andrew Weissmann joined Jen to break down James Comey’s specious indictment, what his defense team may be planning, and Pam Bondi’s bizarre behavior. “This could blow up.”

Can our courts be reformed?

Lisa Graves, author of Without Precedent, joined Jen for an exposé on Chief Justice Roberts’ Supreme Court and its impact on law, policy, and democracy at large. “If you view this as a hyper-partisan court engaged in hyper-partisan activity for a hyper-partisan president, that’s what’s happening.”

Cartoons & Fun Stuff

This week, our cartoonists took on “the enemy within” (Cold as ICE by Michael de Adder, Standing ground by Nick Anderson), the nihilistic chaos of Republican leadership (Driving blind

by Calder Robinson, All on board by Michael de Adder, The Reaper by RJ Matson), and the AG who sadly isn’t Elle Woods (Legally Bondi by RJ Matson).

Cinnamon Nut Roll Coffee Cake

Jamie Schler graced us with an object lesson in pastry baking. Her cinnamon nut roll coffee cake teaches us a lesson in perseverance, and how to overcome exhaustion, frustration, and despair. With time, order and organization, precision and persistence, we can—and will—finally succeed.

Dolly Parton ‘ain’t dead yet,’ and a weary nation breathes a sigh of relief

Despite rumors to the contrary, Dolly Parton is still alive. As Meredith Blake wrote, the country music icon may be the last thing we can all agree on.

Contrarian Pet of the Week

This week’s pet of the week is the lovely Fettuccine! Fettuccine is a 6-year-old Flame point Siamese who had a proclivity towards WWE fighting her brother, napping on fresh, clean laundry, and begging for wet food like it’s her birthday every day.

That’s it for now, Contrarians—another amazing week of content. We will see you at 9:15 a.m. ET on Monday for Coffee with the Contrarians on Substack. In the meantime, have a wonderful weekend. Warmly, Norm