Democrats are hoping for a wave election to give them a comfortable majority in the next Congress. Public support for Republicans has plunged amid high gas prices, the ongoing War in Iran, and a worsening economy. Here are a few key rural races to keep an eye on this November.
A district Democrats could flip for the first time in decades
Many residents in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District are still waiting on federal recovery funds from Hurricane Helene, which ravaged the district in late 2024. Hog farmer Jamie Ager is tapping that frustration — and the negative impact of federal policies like tariffs and the war in Iran — on his agriculture-heavy district.
“Helene families have waited too long for our recovery funds, as the rich get richer,” he said in a recent campaign video.
Ager has a recognizable family name in local politics, and still works his family farm outside Asheville.
Ager is focused on being “a mountain Democrat,” Adam Frisch, director of electoral programs at Center-Left Welcome, told me in August. Welcome endorsed Ager in December. Frisch reportedly told Ager to just “focus on the mountains” until he wins. The Democratic brand, Frisch explains, is a target: “When they beat up on Jamie in the general, it’s not going to be about Jamie’s background [or] about his views — just that he’s part of the national Democratic Party.”
Republicans, meanwhile, have struggled in this R+5 district. Cook Political Report moved the district’s rating to “lean R” in June, two months before incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards withdrew from the campaign following an ethics investigation that found he had inappropriate contact with members of his staff.
Republicans scrambled and found a new candidate, Jennifer Balkcom. A mortgage loan officer and a member of the state’s House of Representatives, she represents a rural part of the district south of Asheville.
A newly blue district Democrats are fighting to hold
Washington’s 3rd Congressional District flipped blue in 2022 after more than a decade in Republican hands. It has received less attention this year because Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez successfully won two close races and improved her margin in 2024. But locally, the expectation is that this could be her toughest race yet.
Gluesenkamp Perez’ popularity was high with her Democratic base in 2024, but in 2026, progressives are furious over many of the votes she’s taken this Congress. There are concerns that progressives will not cast a vote in the House race, rather than back a Democrat they despise.
But a moderate Republican challenger, state Senate Minority Leader John Braun, also poses a challenge with the other side of her coalition. In 2022 and 2024, Gluesenkamp Perez faced a far-right challenger, Joe Kent — who went on to become Trump’s director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center from July 2025 until March 2026. While Braun and Kent share many policy similarities, Kent often focused on hot-button issues while Braun is viewed as more reasonable.
Keenan Harvey, a GOP city councilman in Kelso, Wash., says most local Republicans are more excited about voting for Braun, including many who undervoted or swung to Gluesenkamp Perez when Kent was on the ballot.
Despite this, however, many Braun supporters still had good things to say about Gluesenkamp Perez.
“It’s important, as an elected, to have a keen understanding, to have your finger on the pulse of your constituency and what they want, and I think she does a good job of that,” Harvey told me in August, adding that he is voting for Braun.
“Policy for policy, I would support John’s policy positions more than hers,” he added. “But I do think the CD-3 will still be in a good position if she continues to hold her seat.”
A key Latino district
Moderate GOP Rep. David Valadao held off moderate Democrats in California’s 22nd Congressional District in past years, but the wave of anti-Republican sentiment in 2026 might cost him the seat. He faces progressive Randy Villegas, a political scientist.
“I have been very dismissive of a lot of Democrat attempts to win the Valadao seat for many years,” GOP strategist Mike Madrid told me in early September. Madrid is a former Republican Party Chair in California and an expert on Latino voting trends. “I think you’re going to see Villegas win that seat, and a lot of it has to do with broader demographic trends than the reversion of Hispanic voters — but that’s certainly a part of it.”
CA-22 has the largest number of Mexican Americans represented by a Republican in the U.S., says Madrid. Farmworkers there have been hard hit by immigration raids since Trump took office last year, but Madrid argues it isn’t the top issue motivating Latinos in 2026, pointing out that poverty and poor public schools are bigger concerns right now for Latino voters.
“There’s a much more immediate class concern,” he says, “because we’re all falling behind.”
As a progressive, Villegas is also part of a broader trend Democrats are monitoring to judge whether progressives can flip seats and win big races. But Madrid doesn’t think CA-22 should be a litmus test on how progressive ideology plays with rural Latinos. In focus groups he’s done with Latino voters across California, “they’re saying that the Democratic Party is not much better and almost as corrupt.”
While Latino voters might reject Republicans this November, it doesn’t equate to an embrace of Democrats, he argues.
“To look at it as a move, a rightward shift or a leftward shift, I think misses the entire framework of what is happening. [Rural Latino voters are] moving away from both parties,” Madrid explained.
A long shot
If the blue wave does prove to be a tsunami, a few long-shot districts added to Democrats’ watch lists late in the game — like Texas’s 23rd Congressional District — could be in play.
Rated “likely R” by Cook Political Report, the redrawn district was added to Democrats’ “Red to Blue” list in early August.
The district ticks off a litany of boxes under ‘things that frustrated Republicans this year.’ It has cattle ranchers frustrated that the president imported cheap beef; beloved Big Bend National Park, where President Trump is fighting to build part of his border wall; and a heavily Latino population.
It’s also an open seat plagued by candidate issues. Incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned in April after allegations that he had an affair with an aide, and firearms manufacturer and YouTuber Brandon Herrera became the GOP nominee. He faces Democrat Katy Padilla Stout — an attorney and former teacher — who was endorsed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
But Texas-based GOP consultant Brendan Steinhauser told me in August that Herrera has his own vulnerabilities. Herrera made some videos for his YouTube channel in Nazi and Soviet uniforms that gained attention when he first ran in 2024. He claimed the videos were satire, but received blowback for them.
“I think that the [YouTube] content is what has gotten him a little bit in trouble,” Steinhauser said. “If Herrera loses, let’s say, and the Republicans do well elsewhere, it might be because of the candidate quality.”
