Election Day is now less barely a week away, and though it’s too early to begin counting our wins and losses, we can already see some predictive patterns emerging that have historically been good omens for Democratic successes across the country.
In Michigan, for example, over 2.1 million ballots have been requested and more than 986,000 voters have already returned their ballots. This represents roughly 17% more ballot requests and 2% more returned ballots than at this point in 2022 (when Democrats won the trifecta in the state).
Elsewhere, we are seeing very strong turnout in states with early voting. In North Carolina, voter turnout is up 37 percent from 2022, and 46 percent of those votes came from registered Democrats and about 20 percent from the GOP. In Georgia, more than 150,000 voters who either didn’t vote in 2022 or have been newly registered have already voted.
Though we may soon be able to look forward to maintaining essential strongholds and achieving new hard-fought flips, it’s important to understand that these wins will not necessarily all be because the American public has a renewed belief in the Democratic Party. Any “blue wave” that might sweep across the country will occur, in large part, as a reaction to the far-reaching and highly publicized failures of the current administration.
We’ve seen our neighbors getting snatched off our streets, massive swaths of Americans kicked off their health insurance, the instigation of new and costly foreign wars with no end in sight, stagnant job growth, high inflation and gas prices, attempts to repeal landmark civil rights legislation, bad Supreme Court decisions, and more. Americans have had enough.
Democrats around the country are poised for big victories next month. Here in Michigan, Jocelyn Benson and her running mate, state Sen. Winnie Brinks are in an excellent position to win the election for governor and lieutenant governor. Democrats have a strong statewide ticket that includes Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist for secretary of state and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit for attorney general. These two races are not getting the attention of the other races at the top of the ticket and are closer contests than the governor’s race, but both Democrats should win.
The high-profile U.S. Senate race that features Democratic nominee Dr. Abdul El-Sayed has garnered much of the media attention this cycle and will likely also be close. El-Sayed is running a strong campaign with significant support from across the state (and the country). He has energized volunteers and voters from all over Michigan. That Democratic enthusiasm and voter disappointment and anger with Republicans is helping drive support for congressional candidates in districts currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats the opportunity to pick up at least two and perhaps four seats.
What might not be paying close attention to the Michigan legislature, where Democrats are poised to increase their majority in the state Senate and win the state House. The return of the trifecta is in sight.
None of this necessarily means that the Democrats have won back the trust of the voters, or that any of the work required to win in 2028 or succeed legislatively in the interim has been done.
This is not a critique or indictment of candidates or their efforts. Every effort is cumulative. The worry is that when the votes are tallied on election day, some may think that the battle has been won and allow themselves to take their feet off the gas. In reality, 2027 will be just as impactful a year politically as 2026.
In 2027, we have to walk the walk and show voters how and why we aren’t just the “lesser of two evils.” With any new power and control we gain, we must be champions of their safety, civil liberties, and quality of life. We cannot rely entirely on their desire to vote against the current government; to maintain the momentum and build on our midterm success, we have to work on giving voters something to vote for.
It’s also essential that we continue to attend to the left-vs.-center splinter within the Democratic voting body, because it’s the thing the right can exploit most easily to beat us. The moment their candidates are even somewhat competent or appeal to be more center-leaning or common-sense, our coalition is in immediate danger of falling apart. Our policy and messaging should center the most popular issues among all Americans, the things Democrats succeed in most and deliver on consistently: the economy, healthcare, infrastructure, and education. The things that unite us are the best salve we have against their attempts to divide us, and focusing on accomplishing popular policy will benefit all Americans in the process.
I’ll be as excited as anyone to cheer on our successes next Tuesday night, and we should take the time to highlight what went right. But the work continues Wednesday morning. I’ll see you there.
Lavora Barnes is the former chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.
