How Trump’s Turn on Ukraine Led to His Iran Isolation
Many European leaders praised the U.S.-Israeli action but avoided direct involvement.
President Trump lashing out at Europe is nothing new, but his latest rants show the high stakes of wrecking alliances. A global shift is underway involving defense, tens of billions of dollars in spending, and two ongoing wars.
“Trump still furious about NATO,” read a Fortune headline. It quoted the president describing the alliance as “useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!” In an interview with The Telegraph, Trump threatened to quit NATO over its lack of support for his war in Iran. He’s threatened to pull the United States out of NATO before, dating back to his first term.
Yet in a BBC interview, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte described Europe as “absolutely supportive” of the war. In a news conference, he cited Iran’s nuclear and missile threat. “What the United States is doing now is degrading that capability. And yes, I applaud it.”
Rutte is not alone. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “We are supporting the United States and Israel to get rid of this terrible terrorist regime.” Poland has openly supported the war as well, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) noted. “Similar voices of support have come from other parts of Eastern Europe, including the Baltics, the Czech Republic, and Romania.” Of course, Europe is far from monolithic. Spain is its loudest critic of the war.
In some ways, the continent is helping more than Trump’s complaints let on. “Europe Is Quietly Playing a Crucial Role in the Iran War,” a Wall Street Journal headline said. “U.S. bombers, drones and ships have been fueled, armed and launched via bases in the U.K., Germany, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece, officials say,” the article explained.
Still, the war has remained, officially, the work of the United States and Israel. For insight, I turned to Andrew Fox, a fantastic military analyst with the Henry Jackson Society. In the latest episode of They Stand Corrected, my podcast and newsletter fact checking the news, Fox explained that though reports have noted the unpopularity of this war among Europeans, there’s another big factor the media has largely failed to grasp: the pivotal role of Ukraine.
“If you want Allied help, you have to work those allies up to it,” he said. “I don’t think the Trump administration did any of that.” Using what he called “British understatement,” Fox noted that, “Some of Mr. Trump’s comments, I think, were perhaps undiplomatic.”
Since taking office again, Trump has been “systematically alienating everyone in Europe,” Fox said. “I can’t really emphasize just how hated Trump is over here.” Survey figures show only a sliver of Europeans hold a favorable opinion of the U.S. president. “And we’ve just had a year of being told by Washington that our own security is our own problem — which actually I agree with, that we should take the lead on Ukraine. We have, very much so. American funding stopped completely.”
He’s referring to new funding. The United States previously delivered tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, and some aid promised in 2024 is “still in the pipeline,” the CFR reported. (Trump paused aid at one point last year but soon proceeded.) No new major appropriations bills have been passed for additional support to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
“Europe has almost offset the collapse in US support,” according to the Kiel Institute, an independent German think tank. Last week, the Pentagon warned that “future military support for Ukraine cannot depend on the United States,” Politico reported.
That war has been far deadlier than many people realize. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that Russia suffered between 275,000 and 325,000 fatalities, and Ukraine suffered between 100,000 and 140,000 by the end of December.
“We have to consider our own defenses against Russia,” Fox said. “So to then ask us to redirect our forces to the Gulf — we can’t do both. And what would we actually add?” He noted the United States’ exceptionally high defense spending. “Your military is so capable,” and official involvement by Europe would only lend “a diplomatic veneer,” he added.
NATO does have expertise in minesweeping, an area in which the United States has lagged. Europe is considering efforts to minesweep the Strait of Hormuz. “If Trump had done the groundwork, he could have had those minesweepers ready to go when he launched the operation,” Andrew said.
It’s not just European leaders who have praised the war effort. The leaders of Canada and Australia did so, too. But turning statements of support into actions takes diplomacy — anathema to Trump’s M.O.
Josh Levs is host of They Stand Corrected, the podcast and newsletter fact-checking the media. Find him at joshlevs.com.
Thanks for running this column with my latest episode, The Contrarian. Reality is virtually always more complex than legacy media lets on in two-dimensional reporting. Folks - you can weigh in, ask questions, etc. by joining me over at https://theystandcorrected.substack.com/. 👊
If you are going in for a military venture and you want allies’ support, it is useful to ask for it and secure a commitment before the shooting starts. If you are going in for a military venture and you want allies’ support, it is useful not insult them, arbitrarily impose tariffs on them and otherwise attack their economies before the shooting starts.