After Tuesday’s primary, Iowa joins the list of red states with competitive U.S. Senate races. The race was not on either party’s list of tight races several months ago, but that dramatically changed as Donald Trump’s ratings plunged and his failed policies delivered body blows to Iowa’s economy. Democrats now have a highly electable Democratic state representative, Josh Turek, who defeated by a healthy margin progressive Zach Wahls, with the help of a nearly $10 million VoteVets ad buy. He will go up against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in November.
Trump-endorsed Hinson, who just acknowledged that the Iran war is a drag on Republicans, is no longer considered a slam dunk, even in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats in party registration by over 8 points. As The Daily Beast reported, “Iowa constituents have been hit particularly hard by Trump’s war, which has claimed the lives of six Army Reserve soldiers from the Des Moines-based 103rd Sustainment Command who were killed in an Iranian strike on a facility in Kuwait.”
With Iowa’s farm economy in extreme distress, “Iowa Democrats see an opening, especially as one of the states where recent special elections have seen notable shifts towards Democrats even as voters have soured on the national party’s brand,” NPR reported.
Disastrous MAGA policies have handed Democrats a compelling batch of campaign issues. First and foremost, the rural healthcare system is collapsing, creating a health and economic disaster accelerated by Republicans’ draconian Medicaid cuts. Turek’s personal health struggles and reliance as a child on Medicaid make him particularly effective on the issue.
High tariffs, another self-destructive Trump gambit, cut off Iowans’ access to critical overseas markets, spread economic distress, and may lead to more farm bankruptcies. Trump’s trade war with China has crushed soybean farming in Iowa (the No. 2 state for soybeans after Illinois.) As Bloomberg News reported, “US-China flows were halted for months and some Chinese buyers turned to South American producers.” Exports plunged from $12.6 billion in 2024 under President Biden to just $3.1B billion in 2025 under Trump, improving only marginally this year.
Trump’s Iran war debacle compounded that economic shock. “Trump’s war with Iran and the restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping lane in the Middle East — has also sent fertilizer prices surging just as planting season is beginning,” Bloomberg noted. Fertilizer prices are expected to jump by about a third, to the highest level since Russia launched the Ukraine war. Adding to their economic woes, Iowans now pay (on average) $4.65 per gallon for diesel, up from $2.73 last year.
Turek, a 4-time Paralympic Games basketball player who was born with spina bifida, was savvy enough to capitalize on this assortment of affordability issues during the primary campaign. Claiming prairie populist Sen. Tom Harkin as his political inspiration and mentor, he refused to be categorized as a left-winger. He advocated for “a living wage, affordable housing, healthcare and public education — all while rooting out corruption.” Pointing to his record in winning a Republican-leaning state (rather than vowing to take down Democratic leadership, as his opponent Wahls did), he has argued, “This is not a red state. This is a common-sense state that has masqueraded as more red than we are.”
Iowa’s problems did not spring up overnight. Under one-party GOP governance, Iowa’s economy is in decline. With the state ranking 46th in growth, younger, better-educated people are fleeing the state. “In 2008, 47% of Iowa’s college students planned to stay in the state after graduation. That dropped to 41% in 2024,” Iowa Public Radio reported recently. “That’s a big concern in a state where many businesses are already seeing a worker shortage.”
An Iowa think tank, the Common Sense Institute Iowa, explained, “Iowa’s economy [loses] an estimated $4.5 million in total gross nominal earnings over the working life of each out-migrating, college-educated Iowan age 25-29.” Moreover, the cost of out-migration amounts to “an astounding $6.1 billion in lost gross domestic product (GDP) over the working life of those who leave.”
Something is not working for average people, and those who remain in Iowa face a gloomy forecast unless something changes dramatically. Turek has put the state’s long- and short-term economic woes in the context of a political system rigged by the oligarchy’s growing power and wealth. Arguing that it is “nearly impossible” for young people to find careers, he describes scenes of desolation, as if “a vacuum has come through and just sucked it out of there, just because we have policies in place that have only benefited billionaires and multinational corporations.” His answer to this problem? Elect leaders “who are going to actually fight for the middle class and fight for our workers, and fight for small businesses and for rural communities.”
Turek makes the case that Hinson and the policies she has supported have contributed to the burdens weighing down average people. “Ashley Hinson is Joni [“Well we are all going to die”] Ernst 2.0, arguably worse,” he said. “She is someone who voted for the Big, Beautiful Bill ... just to give tax breaks to billionaires.” He adds: “She’s also someone who has voted four times in favor of the Trump tariffs, which has led us to lead the nation in farm foreclosures. It’s absolute ‘farmageddon’ for our farmers. She’s not looking out for Iowans or the middle class.”
That might remind you of Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico’s populist message: “The biggest divide in politics is not right vs. left, but top vs. bottom.” That is no coincidence. In both Iowa and Texas, Democrats have found a receptive audience for the classic Democratic message that they will stand up for the little guy and gal against the rich and powerful, who rig the system in their favor at ordinary Americans’ expense.
Turek and Talarico will test the proposition that Democrats with an effective message centered on the economy and corruption can win in the heartland. We would experience a sea change in national politics if articulate, compelling Democratic candidates break through with a populist message in states Trump won comfortably in 2024.
If Democrats prevail, they should recognize that victories like these would never have been possible without Trump’s grotesque corruption, war on average workers, and utter indifference to rural Americans’ pain. And it will be rubber stamps — such as Hinson — who will pay the price for sycophancy in service of a president concerned only about himself.
For so long, I've heard that people "aren't ready" for progressive politics, but time and time again, we're seeing that progressive politicians actually fair better with people who are sick of the current system, which is an increasingly large number of people. The democrats need to embrace this perspective, rather than trying to bury it.
That is extremely hopeful. We need gerrymandering to backfire as well