Is This the Year Texas Republicans Finally Blow It In the Senate?

Thanks to a very public divorce scandal, the must-watch Senate race between incumbent John Cornyn and MAGA favorite Ken Paxton is getting messy. Democrats smell blood.

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If you were worried that Texas politics was getting a little boring, worry no more: The upcoming Republican Senate primary between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is here to inject a full dose of chaos, betrayal, biblical divorce filings, and party-wide panic.

This race has everything: A four-term U.S. senator trying to fend off a scandal-slicked attorney general. Big-money super PACs unloading cash like it’s an oil boom. And the GOP’s favorite kingmaker, Donald Trump, refusing to pick a side just yet — because apparently even he wants to watch the drama unfold before weighing in.

Let’s start with the basics. Cornyn has raised nearly $4 million this quarter and has $8.5 million in cash on hand. He’s got a super PAC that’s hauled in $11 million and a consultant team stacked with senior Trump advisers.

By comparison, Paxton raised $2.9 million in the latest quarter, while a pro-Paxton super PAC took in $1.85 million. Currently, Paxton’s campaign has $2.5 million on hand.

So, financially speaking, Cornyn is loaded and battle-ready.

But here’s the kicker: He’s still trailing Paxton. By 15 points. That’s not a polling gap, that’s a canyon.

And in a plot twist that probably made Cornyn’s campaign staff spit out their coffee, those same polls show that while Paxton is leading in the primary, he’s losing to a generic Democrat in the general election. Meanwhile, Cornyn — establishment, suit-and-tie Cornyn — actually beats the Democrat by seven points.

This has Republicans sweating through their solid gold Trump pins.

Or as one senior GOP Senate aide put it more bluntly to Axios: “The problem is nobody with the necessary gravitas seems to be willing to state the obvious: this is shaping up to be a f***ing disaster.”

Well, someone just did.

Let’s not forget who Paxton is. He’s the guy who was impeached by the Texas House on bribery and corruption charges and then acquitted by the Texas Senate.

And speaking of family values: Angela Paxton, Ken’s wife of 38 years and a state senator, just filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.” If you’re wondering what chapter and verse that comes from, it appears to be somewhere between “Thou shalt not embarrass me on national television” and “Thou shalt not have a mistress during impeachment hearings.”

The timing of her announcement is either divine intervention or brutal campaign strategy (maybe both). Either way, it’s given Cornyn and his allies their first real opening to attack Paxton on something that even MAGA voters might find hard to spin.

The GOP establishment wasted no time. One National Republican Senatorial Committee staffer posted a Bible verse about prostitutes. Cornyn allies posted photos of him with his wife looking like the cover of a Hallmark card. Suddenly, Cornyn isn’t just a senator — he’s a husband who stays. And not a “con man and a fraud”.

But don’t count Paxton out. He’s still pulling in millions and hovering above 50% in some private polls. His base is loud, loyal, and doesn’t seem fazed by little things like 20+ articles of impeachment and a very public ex-mistress, who after the divorce news updated her Instagram bio to read: “You can’t always get what you want. But I can.”

Still, Cornyn’s camp is betting that once they start unloading their war chest — and remind voters that Paxton’s office once handed taxpayer-funded grants to left-wing orgs — they can close the gap. Maybe even get that Trump endorsement.

Speaking of the orange elephant in the room, Trump met with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and reportedly said he’s staying neutral for now. Not that Cornyn hasn’t been trying.

“I’ve talked to him about it a number of times. He is not ready to make that endorsement,” Cornyn told NBC News this week. “I think as we start advertising and closing the gap in the polls, hopefully he’ll see fit to make that endorsement, but we can’t wait.”

(Is it a good sign when your state’s senior senator sounds like he’s refreshing Trump’s texts like a teenager waiting for a “u up?”)

And while Republicans fight among themselves, Democrats are eyeing the wreckage like buzzards spotting roadkill. Colin Allred is in. Terry Virts, a literal astronaut, is in. Beto O’Rourke is circling, because of course he is. (Fun fact: It’s been seven years since Beto made Ted Cruz sweat. In political time, that’s only slightly longer than the average Ken Paxton legal battle.)

Democrats haven’t won a statewide race here since 1994, but this might be their best chance in a generation. Polls show Trump’s approval in Texas slipping into negative territory, and the GOP infighting isn’t helping.

“Trump’s habit of attempting to directly influence state politics and governance has made him a much bigger factor in Texas politics than most of his predecessors (with the possible exception of the presidents from Texas),” according to a report from the Texas Politics Project.

So here we are. A race that should’ve been a Republican layup has turned into a slow-motion implosion. Cornyn’s money might not matter if the base stays glued to Paxton, and Paxton might win a primary only to crash and burn in the general.

And all of us? We get to watch the whole thing like it’s a season finale — one with campaign finance reports, subpoena drama, and a touch of televangelism.

Texas, baby!

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https://thebarbedwire.com/2025/07/18/texas-senate-republican-primary-cornyn-paxton/