A good analysis, Mr. Kalb. At this point Putin is on very thin ice despite appearances on TV. Our Russian experts in the State Department must be thinking who will replace Putin. That is if there is anyone left in the State Department.
You mentioned the Cold War and Khrushchev's "harebrained" policy in Cuba. Yes that was one of the reason's for Khrushchev's fall. Think back to those days, and to Stalin before and Brezhnev after. What American president wouldn't have wanted to capitalize on a Russian (or Soviet) leader who made a blunder the likes of Putin's harebrained Ukraine invasion? And what does Trump do? As you say, throw him a life line. David DeRosa
Mr. Kalb, I hope you are right about Putin. The day can't come soon enough for him and his clique to lose power. It might be too much to hope for. And what will come after him? Let's all hope it's someone who has a shred of human decency and doesn't get rid of rivals by throwing them out of high windows.
Except that various commentators on Russian affairs over the past few years all seem to feel that all of the likely successors to Putin are just as bad, if not worse. We should wish for his whole clique to be defenestrated.
Good article. Putin intended Trump to be an agent of chaos who would undermine and weaken the US. I do not think he intended Trump to be his political savior or economic lifeline. It is a good perspective to remember this because it underlines the fact that Putin is not all-powerful if he must depend on dum-dum Trump.
Having spent a lot of time in Russia over the last 35 years and speaking the language, I can attest that most Russians, especially younger ones, are not ideologically invested in Putin's expansionist schemes. They just want to live normal lives and have a reasonably secure financial situation. Putin's war is interfering with that. Many in the middle class miss the cosmopolitan freedom they had for an all-too-brief period, freedom to travel and be accepted without censure in other countries. There are also many Russian-Ukrainian family ties, a legacy of their previous long and close relationship. And they are just as pissed about inflation and low wages as Americans.
Russians have always had a well-justified, healthy skepticism about their government, which the current barrage of pro-war patriotic propaganda has eroded but not erased. The question is whether the established oligarchic system can adapt, post-Putin. They do have enormous incentive to re-join the global economic system.
P.S. There is also the complication that Putin's domestic machine has become so extensive, with legions of propagandists who monitor and influence social media, local activities, the media, etc. Dismantling this could entail some dislocations. Consider the suddenly unemployed STASI guy from the German movie "The Lives of Others." Putin has done a lot to recreate the old Soviet social structure, with an overlay of corrupt crony capitalism..
Don’t see any of this in the corporate media which, despite all else, still portrays Putin as a great leader. Putin’s leadership has left Russia a failed state, with an economy one tenth of the European Union and less than some American states. His only success has been Trump, and through Trump he knows all of America’s intelligence gathered to date. But, what exactly can he do with it?
While Putin my have sown the seed of his political (and perhaps actual) demise with his ham-handed invasion of Ukraine and his prosecution of the war since, it's not clear to me that a post-Putin Russia would be any less threatening to the west and to international order, or any less a threat to its neighbors, especially if a fanatic takes control.
Which players are in the background, positioning themselves to seize the reins should Putin be forced out? What are the chances that he is replaced by an even more right wing or hard line fanatic? Who would be the power brokers in that country in a post-Putin vacuum?
Mr. Kalb's decades of experience covering the State Department add gravitas to his observations about Russia. I thank him for continuing to share his intelligence.
Letting the world know that we are about to pick up our toys and go home is a gift to Putin. He has essentially told both Netanyahu and Putin that he is not going to go to bat for Ukraine or Gaza. They can do as they wish.
Frankly I think both situations were more difficult than he anticipated and he is afraid of losing face, so he is going to cut and run. According to his campaign bragging, both should have been solved at about three months ago.
Recruitment and pay incentives are one thing; living to enjoy them is something else, and though the economy isn't good, Russian people who might consider enlisting in this thing that they don't call a war may be having second thoughts.
If Putin is indeed heading for thin ice, he may be forced to de-escalate to save himself.
Although…….shudder to think what might replace Putin in Russia! It would be nice if they would decide to be a cooperating citizen-country of the world…..
And let the American Fuhrer who ties himself to Putin sink under the weight of both of them..
We can hope Trump is even a shorter timer!
A good analysis, Mr. Kalb. At this point Putin is on very thin ice despite appearances on TV. Our Russian experts in the State Department must be thinking who will replace Putin. That is if there is anyone left in the State Department.
You mentioned the Cold War and Khrushchev's "harebrained" policy in Cuba. Yes that was one of the reason's for Khrushchev's fall. Think back to those days, and to Stalin before and Brezhnev after. What American president wouldn't have wanted to capitalize on a Russian (or Soviet) leader who made a blunder the likes of Putin's harebrained Ukraine invasion? And what does Trump do? As you say, throw him a life line. David DeRosa
Rubio is showing his true self and it is pretty horrible.
Mr. Kalb, I hope you are right about Putin. The day can't come soon enough for him and his clique to lose power. It might be too much to hope for. And what will come after him? Let's all hope it's someone who has a shred of human decency and doesn't get rid of rivals by throwing them out of high windows.
Except that various commentators on Russian affairs over the past few years all seem to feel that all of the likely successors to Putin are just as bad, if not worse. We should wish for his whole clique to be defenestrated.
If the day comes, Trump will claim credit and say that Zelensky had nothing to do with it.
Good article. Putin intended Trump to be an agent of chaos who would undermine and weaken the US. I do not think he intended Trump to be his political savior or economic lifeline. It is a good perspective to remember this because it underlines the fact that Putin is not all-powerful if he must depend on dum-dum Trump.
Having spent a lot of time in Russia over the last 35 years and speaking the language, I can attest that most Russians, especially younger ones, are not ideologically invested in Putin's expansionist schemes. They just want to live normal lives and have a reasonably secure financial situation. Putin's war is interfering with that. Many in the middle class miss the cosmopolitan freedom they had for an all-too-brief period, freedom to travel and be accepted without censure in other countries. There are also many Russian-Ukrainian family ties, a legacy of their previous long and close relationship. And they are just as pissed about inflation and low wages as Americans.
Russians have always had a well-justified, healthy skepticism about their government, which the current barrage of pro-war patriotic propaganda has eroded but not erased. The question is whether the established oligarchic system can adapt, post-Putin. They do have enormous incentive to re-join the global economic system.
P.S. There is also the complication that Putin's domestic machine has become so extensive, with legions of propagandists who monitor and influence social media, local activities, the media, etc. Dismantling this could entail some dislocations. Consider the suddenly unemployed STASI guy from the German movie "The Lives of Others." Putin has done a lot to recreate the old Soviet social structure, with an overlay of corrupt crony capitalism..
Don’t see any of this in the corporate media which, despite all else, still portrays Putin as a great leader. Putin’s leadership has left Russia a failed state, with an economy one tenth of the European Union and less than some American states. His only success has been Trump, and through Trump he knows all of America’s intelligence gathered to date. But, what exactly can he do with it?
While Putin my have sown the seed of his political (and perhaps actual) demise with his ham-handed invasion of Ukraine and his prosecution of the war since, it's not clear to me that a post-Putin Russia would be any less threatening to the west and to international order, or any less a threat to its neighbors, especially if a fanatic takes control.
Which players are in the background, positioning themselves to seize the reins should Putin be forced out? What are the chances that he is replaced by an even more right wing or hard line fanatic? Who would be the power brokers in that country in a post-Putin vacuum?
Mr. Kalb's decades of experience covering the State Department add gravitas to his observations about Russia. I thank him for continuing to share his intelligence.
Letting the world know that we are about to pick up our toys and go home is a gift to Putin. He has essentially told both Netanyahu and Putin that he is not going to go to bat for Ukraine or Gaza. They can do as they wish.
Frankly I think both situations were more difficult than he anticipated and he is afraid of losing face, so he is going to cut and run. According to his campaign bragging, both should have been solved at about three months ago.
.
Recruitment and pay incentives are one thing; living to enjoy them is something else, and though the economy isn't good, Russian people who might consider enlisting in this thing that they don't call a war may be having second thoughts.
If Putin is indeed heading for thin ice, he may be forced to de-escalate to save himself.
Also relevant: https://dekleptocracy.substack.com/p/trumps-untapped-trump-card-a-sanction
I pray you are right! 🙏
Although…….shudder to think what might replace Putin in Russia! It would be nice if they would decide to be a cooperating citizen-country of the world…..