Reality Counts

Markets Do Not Lie

President in Name Only (PINO) Donald Trump and acting president Elon Musk might be able to bamboozle some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot bamboozle all of the people all of the time (to paraphrase Lincoln). And, hard as they may try, not even Fox News or the rest of the captive MAGA media can hide inflation, layoffs, and consistently bad economic news. That is a problem for a president who misled the voters by campaigning on how easily he would “bring down” prices.

“Trump campaigned relentlessly on the cost of living and made a big (and unrealistic) promise to bring down food prices on day one of his term,” The Guardian’s columnist Arwa Mahdawi reminded us. “Now, it’s clear he has no realistic plan to lower the cost of groceries; eventually, even his most devoted followers are going to figure out that you can’t eat the culture wars.”

It was obvious during the campaign that Trump never had such a plan—and that the plans he did have (e.g., pandering to billionaires that could help him evade sentencing, massive tax cuts for the rich, tariffs…though he’s yet to grasp the definition of the word) would all prove inflationary. It is also true that while some Americans watch rightwing media, far more of them watch prices, and follow them closely.

As a result, “Americans are feeling increasingly anxious about the economy as food prices stay high and policy changes spark worries about continued inflation. Negative sentiment eventually could translate to a pullback in spending,” Barrons reported. “The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index surprised to the downside in February, coming in at 64.7. Economists were expecting the index to tick down to 67.5 from the preliminary reading of 67.8, according to FactSet.”

Musk’s “move fast, break things” chaotic attack on the federal government coupled with Trump’s tariff threats, not to mention the ongoing specter of mass deportation, have rattled consumers. Imagine that. When uncertainty strikes consumers, they usually pull back, deferring purchases. Since consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, a downturn in it may have devastating consequences across the board.

With consumer sentiment on a sharp decline, substantial government layoffs continuing around the country, and a bloated cost of living, be prepared to hear a lot about “stagflation” worries. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz recently told The Guardian that “the uncertainty created by Trump’s on-off tariff plans and the president’s apparent contempt for the rule of law would deter investment.” His reasoning is persuasive:

If you’re a corporat[ion] in the US or in Europe, do you think you have a global market, or do you have just a European market? Where do you locate your factories?.... The government has a huge number of contracts and we’re just tearing them up. How much risk do you want? The US has become, I would say, a scary place to invest.

Stiglitz concludes: “I could certainly see a scenario where we get to stagflation….I just see the global economy suffering so much from the uncertainty that Trump poses.”

And so here we are. Remarkably, we have gone from an economy that was the “envy of the world” to “a scary place to invest” in the brief time the Musk-Trump administration has been in power. “The president had hoped to achieve robust growth and disinflation—a mixture that could help push up stocks and bring down yields,” The Economist explained. “Instead, signs of economic weakness have emerged, with consumers worried about the threat of tariffs, and enormous tax cuts now look unlikely. That is very much not what Mr Trump had in mind.”

The Federal Reserve is not going to be jaw-boned into lowering interest rates as inflation is ticking up. All indications point to the Fed holding interest rates steady at the next Federal Open Market Committee on March 19. By then, it will become clear if Trump is pushing forward with counterproductive tariffs and if the MAGA Congress is prepared to pass a ginormous tax cut, opening an unwieldy spigot of red ink. (In reaction to the House budget passed Tuesday, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget railed: “It’s truly unfathomable that when confronted with multi-trillion-dollar deficits and debt climbing towards record highs, lawmakers’ response is to pass a budget allowing themselves to add trillions more in debt over the next decade. There’s no excuse for that notion to even be entertained, let alone passed on the floor of the House.”)

One could imagine a different scenario, one in which Trump did not set Musk loose, did not threaten tariffs, and did not push for an irresponsible budget. In other words, he could have left the roaring Biden economy alone. Had he done so, in a few months’ time, he could claim the U.S. had the best, most envied economy in the world. And he might have been right!

Unfortunately for the American economy and all of us who rely on it functioning, Trump’s illiteracy on tariffs, lack of management acumen in running the executive branch, and his utter greed (for himself and for his oligarchs, who are all licking their chops over another round of taxes) may well propel our economy into a ditch. If so, not even Trump’s Fox and Friends will be able to disguise who drove us right into it.