At an August primary night speech in downtown Vancouver, WA, Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp slid in a dig at Washington’s liberal state legislature.
“As we face an aimless war in Iran, gas and grocery prices driven up by politicians in Olympia and D.C., ordinary people cannot afford business as usual,” she said, referencing Washington’s state capital.
Democrats across the country are hurrying to capitalize on Republicans’ low favorability among American voters due to high gas prices, an unpopular war in Iran, and drastic cuts to health care. But a cadre of red-district Democrats in blue states like Gluesenkamp Perez are still fighting the unpopularity that has chased Democrats for the last few years.
In Washington and California, for example, rural communities face some of the highest gas prices in the nation, following recent gas tax hikes. The average gas price in California as of yesterday was $6.20; in Washington it was $5.55, according to data from AAA. The national average is now $4.47.
Washington State Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad argues that voters in her state effectively endorsed the gas tax when they voted against a 2024 ballot measure repealing the state’s climate legislation. But while voters statewide rejected the repeal by 62 percent, it received far more support in Washington’s third Congressional district (CD-3), passing in red, rural Cowlitz and Lewis Counties. Even in Clark County, CD-3’s most populous (with the lion’s share of its Democratic vote), opposition to the repeal was 5 percent lower than the statewide average, and 17 percent lower than the county that includes Seattle.
Republicans have spent a lot of money on ads tying Gluesenkamp Perez to Seattle Democrats and accusing the Democratic incumbent of “staying silent” while Olympia hiked taxes — including an income tax on millionaires that passed earlier this year, and which voters will consider repealing on November’s ballot.
Rep. Adam Grey in California’s Central Valley, Rep. Janelle Bynum in the suburbs of Portland, OR, Gluesenkamp Perez, and a handful of incumbents and challengers in New York state are a sampling of the Democrats who must work overtime to demonstrate how they differ from the more progressive (and often unpopular) Democrats surrounding them.
“[These candidates are] in blue states…where people are upset at their governor, they’re upset at their state government, they’re upset at the Democratic control of their state, and they want to take it out on their member of Congress,” DNC Deputy Finance Chair Liz Minnella said in a post on Instagram this week, after attending a meeting with six of these frontline incumbents.
Recent polling by the Public Policy Institute of California, for example, found that only 48 percent of likely voters approve of the job their state legislature is doing. In deep-blue Oregon, a poll of 600 likely voters shows a GOP challenger leading unpopular Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek by two percentage points (though within the margin of error) in this year’s gubernatorial race.
“When you get into these rural areas of the state, even the liberals feel like the liberals in downtown Seattle or downtown Olympia don’t understand how they’re living their lives and paying their bills,” said Adam Frisch, director of electoral programs at The Welcome Party, a center-left political action committee that focuses on competitive districts, especially those won by Trump.
Republicans are leaning into these arguments, running attack ads against Democratic Rep. Adam Grey in California for his vote for California’s climate legislation — which included a gas tax — when he was in the state legislature.
“They’ve been victims of very intense messaging by the right to their constituents about how they’re radical or they’re socialists, and their seats are in jeopardy,” Minnella said about these frontline candidates in her social media post this week, calling on Democratic voters to continue to donate to these campaigns.
In New York, Democratic strategist Jack O’Donnell claims that the recent success of Democratic Socialists — some backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani — exacerbates existing distrust for Democrats among the state’s more conservative or right-leaning voters. “Democratic Socialists winning [their] primaries…The threat of that is certainly impacting people in more moderate races,” said O’Donnell.
Minnella pointed to Reps. Laura Gillen in NY-04 and Josh Riley in NY-19 as incumbents in danger because of their districts’ frustration with Democrats. As a result, Republicans are pushing hard to tie them and Rep. Tom Suozzi in NY-03 to Mamdani and Hochul.
“I’m fed up with career politicians like Kathy Hochul and Tom Suozzi who sold us out and left us behind,” Republican Mike LiPetri said in a recent ad.
“My constituents know me, and they know my record, and they like it,” Gillen responded when I asked her about this on Capitol Hill in mid-September.
Republicans may see a further bump in turnout from ballot measures on wealth taxes and the participation of transgender girls or women in sports. In blue states like California, Colorado, and Washington, these could motivate conservatives to turn out despite frustration with their own party.
“I think it probably is motivating some of the Republican base,” Conrad acknowledged. Her state (WA) is considering both a new income tax on millionaires and restrictions on girls’ sports this November. She argued, however, that Republicans pushed for such measures because, when it comes to increasing turnout, “it’s kind of all they have.”
