Absent from the rationale presented by the minority Leader was that his capitulation allows Republicans and Trump to further evade scrutiny and culpability for their mess
Trump is dismantling the government anyway, and the courts can't move quickly enough to stop him. The only thing that might have shortened the painful period we're in would have been the actual shutdown. As Mr. Ornstein says, the sudden shock and pain of experiencing what it really means not to have a government would have brought severe and unrelenting blowback. Schumer really sold us down the river.
Here are five key points that made me hesitant about fully embracing or applauding the idea of a government shutdown:
1) Trump alone gets to decide which government workers and which federal services are "essential". That would hypercharge the demolition that Trump, Musk and DOGE are carrying out.
2) As far as I know, in the event that a budget deal fails to eventually emerge from Congress, there is NO OBVIOUS OFF-RAMP from a shutdown.
3) It’s unclear whether and to what extent federal courts would continue to operate.
4) Trump and Republicans have a far-stronger megaphone in the right-wing media and blogosphere. There is a strong risk that they could successfully twist the narrative and shift the blame in ways that would be very damaging for Democrats.
5) …moreover, this might well mean Trump could recover from today’s situation, where he is sinking like a rock in the polls. Right now, increasingly many Americans (of all political stripes!) are waking up and blaming Trump and his insane policies for the downward spiral that is negatively impacting their lives. We certainly don’t want that to change.
With regards to #3 above, some writers have claimed the courts would continue to function because they are a separate branch of government and thus not subject to the President’s orders. Judge Howell underscores why the courts’ continued functioning is nonetheless unclear:
. "The judiciary [is] the third branch. We are not the executive branch. We are not subject to this [shutdown] guidance. But our landlord, and all of the federal courthouses around the country is GSA – the General Services Administration. And the people who do the security at our front doors, all across the country in federal courthouses, are DOJ-component employees from the U.S. Marshals Service or court security officers. So they are all executive branch employees."
– Judge Beryl Howell, US District Court for the District of Columbia.
Here are some of Marcy Wheeler’s worries (of EmptyWheel renown):
Among the best arguments I’ve seen against a shutdown, laid out but dropped here by Josh Marshall, is that a shutdown would provide Trump a way to halt legal proceedings by deeming those lawyers non-essential.
Josh Marshall: I was told yesterday that a major driver for Dems was the fear that a shutdown would slow down or stop the various court cases against DOGE. …I was skeptical. But this afternoon I heard it from other key directions.
I can't emphasize your point #2 enough, Arctic. There is no obvious off-ramp from a shutdown, even in "normal" times (when Republicans were just pissy and arrogant, and had not yet metastasized into complete loony-tunes slimebags). Those unfamiliar with the workings of the federal government do not grasp how disruptive shutdowns are, nor how they end. Schumer may have underestimated GOP insanity and cowardice, believing his colleagues would come to their senses. Yet once Speaker Bobblehead dismissed the House, it was clear there would be no negotiation over an extended CR. Schumer was slow to grasp this, but once he did, he realized (correctly, I think) that America was suddenly facing a true Sophie's Choice. Without his sign-on, it's more than possible Sophie would have ended up losing both her children.
The prospect of Social Security, Medicare and/or Medicaid being declared "non-essential services" by these vile, misguided loons is real, more than most of us can imagine. I hate where we are, but perhaps something even worse got stopped --- for a while --- and our federal courts will continue to function.
Yes, precisely, what is to prevent Trump, Musk & Vought from thoroughly exploiting the shutdown, demand their compliant Republican-controlled Congress refuse to compromise – and simply waiting until Democrats cave?
That is actually not correct. They are being pushed back by many judges and rulings, not just a few. Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Services and Social Security still exist. All that would be on the chopping block for the rest of the year. These people intend to destroy the public sector. We've just bought ourselves some time.
You are entitled to your doubts. I had ones as well, but they were more in line with Mr. Ornstein's article and my research. I'm sharing them because I am concerned about the number of Democrats who believe Schumer's dubious scenario. If he was so sure about what would happen, why did he agree to the united Democratic response, that House members bravely upheld, and then secretly cave without telling anyone, betraying all the Congressional Democrats, as well as voters.
A Quinnipiac University poll from the day before showed that 32% of Americans would blame Democrats, but that 31% would blame Republicans, and 22% would blame Trump. If the polling was accurate, we would have been ahead by 20%.
On Wednesday afternoon, why would Jen have sent us a short video urging us to call Schumer and ask him to reverse himself, and vote "NO." There were a number of reasons why, but she also mentioned that if Schumer voted "yes," he would be destroying a critical component of the system of checks and balances: Congress' "power of the purse." I read that it was written into the Constitution to protect the American people from future presidents, like the founders had experienced with the monarchs in England, from abusing their office.
And, Jen had said that Schumer's action might destroy the basis of some upcoming lawsuits that Norm et. al had filed because Trump was usurping the budget, which is against the law. But if Congress voluntarily relinquishes their power, it could impact those cases.
On Wednesday night, all the Democratic Senators, but one, said they would vote "No" on the CR. On Thursday, Schumer publicly caved, and spent the next two days doing interviews, in which he put forth his questionable shutdown scenario that was meant to frighten Democratic voters, and called Senators to sway them to his side.
Finally, if Schumer didn't want the shutdown he'd agreed to, why didn't he negotiate? He had almost all the Democratic Senatorial votes in his pocket, and that's the optimum time to do so. Republicans badly needed eight of them, and they couldn't or wouldn't go back to Trump without a win. This is when a leader shows what he/she is made of. And, Schumer quit, without a fight.
His weakness emboldened Trump, humiliated the Democratic party, and infuriated Democratic voters...all because he used the deceitful "scare tactics" Mr. Ornstein described.
When Senator John Thune was interviewed about what happened, he laughed aloud and said, "We gave Democrats nothing, and Schumer still caved." And, Trump publicly thanked Schumer for his bravery, which says it all. If that's the behavior we want in our Minority Leader, we've got it in Schumer. If not, we need to let our senators know.
Just to be clear, I am commenting the dangers of a government shutdown – not defending the way Chuck Schumer handled this. I think his lack of effective messaging to the American people, his failure to fully coordinate with his own Senate caucus and with Jeffries, and his failure to lay a better strategy, was deeply damaging.
Here is a thought from the founder of the Hopium Chronicles:
"To me the most compelling reason to pass the CR and keep the government funded is that WE ARE NOT ADEQUATELY PREPARED for the fight that would have ensued. Simply, Senator Schumer has failed to use these last few months to start forging his team into an effective fighting force."
I apologize if I didn't correctly understand your argument. From the moment I heard that Schumer had caved, I felt so much anger and rage, that I could feel my brain cells dying. I initially thought I agreed with Simon Rosenberg that we are not adequately prepared, and need to "forge an effective fighting force.” But, then I saw videos of Democratic politicians talking with their constituents and others. Yes, Democrat voters want a plan, but they also want their questions answered, and to be heard now!
I saw Bernie Sanders speaking to large crowds in Iowa City, on his Stop Oligarchy tour. They clearly love him, and he spoke to two crowds--one after another-- because there was such an overflow. I saw Chris Murphy speaking to his constituents in Connecticut, and he is a far more animated speaker when he talks to his constituents than when I’ve seen him elsewhere, although he was very good with John Stewart. I saw Mark Kelley and Ruben Gallegos in Arizona. This was possibly where one of the constituents said, “We need to know what to do. If they’re going to take away our healthcare, we need to prepare for that. It would feel like they are burning down our house, with our child inside.” And people cheered.
The only Democrat who cancelled his appearances was Chuck Schumer who was going on a book tour, which was cancelled for security reasons because people hate him. FYI..I just realized that I didn't see any women politicians because their names didn't appear. And, I'm too tired to look further tonight.
I hear your concerns. Let me take them point by point. 1) Trump is already doing this. It's already hypercharged. 2) A budget deal will emerge, because the pain will be intense. We've had shutdowns before, and the longest it lasted was, I believe, around 30 days. 3) with Trump defying the courts right now, it's again already happening. Will the police/military/Secret Service step in to enforce the judge's order? 4) Their megaphone is feeling the stress of such pain as is already being felt. MeidasTouch Network is outperforming both Rogan and Fox News, and there is an increasing number of Trump voters being personally affected by the policies. All the propaganda won't convince them when their own lives are at stake. See your point 5. 5) That wouldn't change if there was a shutdown, it would accelerate.
#2: Whose pain? Certainly not Trump’s! Your assertion that "a budget deal will emerge" is wishful thinking. Nothing assures this, especially if Trump insists the GOP-controlled Congress refuse to compromise.
#3: So far, the Trump regime is largely obeying court orders, at least not defying them wholesale.
#4: Are you seriously claiming MeidasTouch now has more viewers than Fox?? Sorry, right-wing media has a far bigger megaphone, a bigger audience and a far wider reach.
#5: We discount the power of Big Lie propaganda at our own peril. 70% of Republicans believe Biden stole the 2020 election – far more than before January 6th Insurrection.
Pushing the idea that "Democrats" should do more to stop Trump is simply spleen venting. The only people who can stop Trump are the voters and possibly the courts (if Trump abides by court decisions). Expecting the opposition party to "do something" when they hold none of the levers of power other than the filibuster is equivalent to believing in the story of the little Dutch boy who held back a flood by putting his finger in a hole in a dyke. It's a nice story but completely untethered from reality. The Democrats can (and must) improve their messaging to improve their chances of retaking the House and Senate in 2026, but they can't and won't stop Trump until then.
By voting to advance the CR, Democrats ceded what little legal leverage they had to stop Trump’s lawbreaking and Constitution trashing. And much more importantly, in my judgement, they ceded a considerable amount of the moral high ground as well because it looks to the American people like they have no problem with Trump’s egregious abuses of power.
I fear that this capitulation by Schumer will embolden Trump to abuse his power even more and, as a result, Americans and everyone else will suffer far more over the medium and long term. Trump knows full well that a federal government shutdown and/or Democratic unity against advancing the CR would have hurt him and Republicans politically and it is why he profusely thanked Schumer for voting to advance it.
This is assuming that we will have free and fair elections in 2026. There is some evidence that Musk was able to hack the algorithms of voting machines in swing states in the last election. Trump even let it slip because he can't contain his bragging. This isn't a conspiracy theory. Google Election Truth /alliance.
Richard Wilhelm, on a side note: your namesake’s translation of the I Ching, The Book of Changes, is impeccable! I’ve enjoyed it and made good use of it for almost 50 years.
As noted by others, Trump and Musk are dismantling government regardless, and Democrats appear to be incapable of stopping that, shutdown or not.
But perhaps a larger point is that Democrats are desperate for a leader, a person to rally around - a leader of the resistance to Trump/Musk and a strong, focused, voice of opposition. Schumer had an opportunity to take that mantle, even if temporarily, and provided a focal points for Democratic action. But instead, he defaulted to the procedure and politics of 30 years ago and Democrats continue to wander around leaderless and rudderless, only capable of unorganized reaction rather than implementing any new, bolder, strategy together.
I do not believe a shutdown would accomplish anything except make it easier for Doge. What is missing from this analysis is that unstable people cannot be expected to behave rationally. None of what is outlined in this article would have the effect we would expects from rational players, because they are not rational. Without exception everyone in this administration is behaving exactly like the president. So, a protracted shutdown would not have been an outlandish senario. I think everyone has to come to terms with what we are facing with unstable people running things.
Trump will do his ugly victory dance no matter how many people die. It didn't have anything to do with Chuck Schumer. He's out there now actually claiming Biden's pardons weren't legal, since an autopen was used (somebody notify President Jefferson that those additional copies of the Louisiana Purchase transaction might have been invalid).
It's not a popular thing to say, but Schumer was right on the merits. Had the government shut down (which is what they REALLY wanted), it would have legally enabled President Musk to fire not just tens of thousands of more, but decide for himself (along with his mango sidekick) which parts of government to re-open, which to shut down for as long as they liked. There would have been no judicial recourse whatever
Schumer wasn't thinking about polls, he was thinking about people who would suffer the most should that have happened. It was a true Sophie's Choice, and he did what he thought was best. Other Senators chose not to go along.
We must be smart, not just angry. It's less about 'new leadership' than it is being very, very smart in the face of a very difficult hand to play. I hope we're wise enough to turn what feel like bitter defeats into later victories through hard work and skill.
Have you actually tried to talk with MAGAs about the depredations? They are generally thrilled and I have encountered a number who now see their Trump-caused problems as just the noble sacrifice that Trump has sold it as being. From the interactions I’m having with the neutrals—those who stayed home—they are still shrugging their shoulders because what’s happening to the government still isn’t affecting them enough to care. It remains abstract and the Democrats still sound shrill. I have come to the conclusion that the more suffering at the hands of the Right the better, and the sooner the better. I’ve thought about it a lot and still think AOC, Pelosi, and Schiff were right to be against the CR and right to call out Schumer. He is not rising to the occasion and it’s time for him to go.
I have been saying Schumer is a wuss and needs to be replaced for several years now. He will go down in history as the weakest majority AND minority senate leader.
Allow me to gently push back. Norman, you said "All of which is to say that there would never be a six-month shutdown, much less one lasting an entire year. Of course there would be upheavals and damage. But the Schumer fallacy is to assume or propose that by capitulating, the damage will be less."
Thanks. But why is that fallacious reasoning? Schumer specifically explained that "If government were to shut down, Doge has a plan in place to exploit the crisis for maximum destruction. A shutdown will allow Doge to shift into overdrive. It would give Donald Trump and Doge the keys to the city, state and country. Donald Trump and Elon Musk would be free to destroy vital government services at a much faster rate than they can right now and over a much broader field of destruction that they would render."
Later in the NYT interview he said "A shutdown would shut down all government agencies, and it would solely be up to Trump and DOGE and Musk what to open again, because they could determine what was essential. So their goal of decimating the whole federal government, of cutting agency after agency after agency, would occur under a shutdown.”
Shutting down all government agencies would have far, far more damage in a short period of time than anything Trump has done so far. This, I believe, is the core of Schumer's argument. The "six months" is just a ballpark estimate, not an exact prediction.
It wasn’t a choice between the GOP CR and a shutdown. The Dems had discussed leaving the budget as is for a month while negotiations could take place. Schumer didn’t push for that option and caved like the weasel he’s always been!
The subtitle is "The Dems faced an impossible choice between two evils on the Continuing Resolution. This led to considerable anger. Here we analyze that choice in an attempt to change emotion to reason." Hope this helps!
I’m sorry, but I think those dire consequences are what was called for. What Trump and Musk are doing is still abstract to most. It needs to hit home, and, to my mind, the more severely and quickly the better. Water under the bridge now.
There was no good option and it is impossible to know whether the consequences of a shutdown would be worse than the status quo. We do know that Trump is emboldened and is recognizing no restraints, unlike his previous term. There are very few laws or guidelines governing a shutdown. Other presidents have not taken undue liberties under that circumstance. Can we trust Trump to restrain himself? I think not.
In case you hadn't noticed, Trump and his "congress" are, in charge. Democrats? Damaged and in disarray.
The only way to stop Trump now is legally. And, as I have said before, you had better get cracking on that for shortly he will have that all buttoned up.
We are, at this writing an autocratic Fascist state. Trump will have your democracy and freedom all taken care of. Journalism will only remember how it used to be. Fear will reign supreme!
Schumer’s 180 degree flip on the CR; from a definite “NO” to a Neville Chamberlain capitulation was disheartening to say the least. Words do matter. A visionary leader has the courage to face down the foes of democracy. Schumer has become the Mitch McConnell of the Democratic Party.
So true, Norm! Every word. May I suggest something to my fellow activist Contrarians? If you urged your senators to vote no on the CR and they did vote no, take a minute to thank them with a call to their offices or an email - they need to know when we appreciate them taking a stand so they will be motivated to keep it up!
It wasn’t a choice between the GOP CR and a shutdown. The Dems had discussed leaving the budget as is for a month while negotiations could take place. Schumer didn’t push for that option and caved like the weasel he’s always been!
I don't agree. I think he did not oppose the fire brands in the party and the party is not demoralized. We can demoralize ourselves if we start shooting each other rather than going forward from where we are. Schumer did what he did because he thought it was the right thing. AOC and Bernie and Walz are doing the right thing too. What is demoralizing for me is this attack on our own instead of taking the fight back against Trump and Doge. I still think we would have won had we stuck with Biden and not fallen apart. Trump is a viscous attack dog and his machine will always find the soft spot. We don't have to do the attack ourselves. Just get out and get them where we can and stop shooting ourselves when we don't all agree.
I wholeheartedly agree with most of your comment. However, I’m sorry, but we could not have won with the Biden that showed up to debate Trump.
But even before that, Team Biden’s failure was to not loudly take credit for all of President Biden’s great accomplishments. That needed to be done continuously throughout his entire presidency. Instead, Team Biden allowed Trump & Co to dominate the news with lies, negativity and four years of shit-talking America!
That collective failure of communication was reflected in the polls.
Just more from dreary dinosaurs who drudge about the halls of Congress representing the Doolittle Democratic party. I am so sick to death of these same old, dead-on-the-inside faces scolding their constituents that they know how to play politics. Hello! We have soulless Nazis in complete control of our nation, set on dismantling every aspect of decency let alone democracy and all that America stands for, and has ever stood for. Shumer and his fellow nitwit fossils are standing there telling us to lay down and play dead? He needs to retire! Only a handful of members of our Congress are out there yelling and screaming and telling us the truth, Bernie, Jamie Raskins, Schiff, AOC, Murphy, Walz... If we don't resist, I mean really resist with like a TEN MILLIOM PERSON MARCH ON WASHINGTON, WE'RE FUCKED! The constitutional crisis is now. Trump has ignored two federal judge orders. He's on a roll and the next rule he ignores will be even more blatant. And he's now in communication with Putin about the future of our planet? No, playing politics is not the strategy that is going to stop these people. This is civil war, folks!
I support Schumer's decision, perhaps not the messaging part, if only to keep the courts open. How could we allow our strongest line of defense to be sidelined?
Trump is dismantling the government anyway, and the courts can't move quickly enough to stop him. The only thing that might have shortened the painful period we're in would have been the actual shutdown. As Mr. Ornstein says, the sudden shock and pain of experiencing what it really means not to have a government would have brought severe and unrelenting blowback. Schumer really sold us down the river.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN – my hesitancy
Here are five key points that made me hesitant about fully embracing or applauding the idea of a government shutdown:
1) Trump alone gets to decide which government workers and which federal services are "essential". That would hypercharge the demolition that Trump, Musk and DOGE are carrying out.
2) As far as I know, in the event that a budget deal fails to eventually emerge from Congress, there is NO OBVIOUS OFF-RAMP from a shutdown.
3) It’s unclear whether and to what extent federal courts would continue to operate.
4) Trump and Republicans have a far-stronger megaphone in the right-wing media and blogosphere. There is a strong risk that they could successfully twist the narrative and shift the blame in ways that would be very damaging for Democrats.
5) …moreover, this might well mean Trump could recover from today’s situation, where he is sinking like a rock in the polls. Right now, increasingly many Americans (of all political stripes!) are waking up and blaming Trump and his insane policies for the downward spiral that is negatively impacting their lives. We certainly don’t want that to change.
With regards to #3 above, some writers have claimed the courts would continue to function because they are a separate branch of government and thus not subject to the President’s orders. Judge Howell underscores why the courts’ continued functioning is nonetheless unclear:
. "The judiciary [is] the third branch. We are not the executive branch. We are not subject to this [shutdown] guidance. But our landlord, and all of the federal courthouses around the country is GSA – the General Services Administration. And the people who do the security at our front doors, all across the country in federal courthouses, are DOJ-component employees from the U.S. Marshals Service or court security officers. So they are all executive branch employees."
– Judge Beryl Howell, US District Court for the District of Columbia.
Here are some of Marcy Wheeler’s worries (of EmptyWheel renown):
Among the best arguments I’ve seen against a shutdown, laid out but dropped here by Josh Marshall, is that a shutdown would provide Trump a way to halt legal proceedings by deeming those lawyers non-essential.
Josh Marshall: I was told yesterday that a major driver for Dems was the fear that a shutdown would slow down or stop the various court cases against DOGE. …I was skeptical. But this afternoon I heard it from other key directions.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2025/03/14/democrats-have-to-stop-making-political-decisions-with-an-eye-towards-2026/
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-kabuki-cave
And here is Gabe Fleisher
https://www.wakeuptopolitics.com/p/how-a-shutdown-could-empower-trump?triedRedirect=true
I can't emphasize your point #2 enough, Arctic. There is no obvious off-ramp from a shutdown, even in "normal" times (when Republicans were just pissy and arrogant, and had not yet metastasized into complete loony-tunes slimebags). Those unfamiliar with the workings of the federal government do not grasp how disruptive shutdowns are, nor how they end. Schumer may have underestimated GOP insanity and cowardice, believing his colleagues would come to their senses. Yet once Speaker Bobblehead dismissed the House, it was clear there would be no negotiation over an extended CR. Schumer was slow to grasp this, but once he did, he realized (correctly, I think) that America was suddenly facing a true Sophie's Choice. Without his sign-on, it's more than possible Sophie would have ended up losing both her children.
The prospect of Social Security, Medicare and/or Medicaid being declared "non-essential services" by these vile, misguided loons is real, more than most of us can imagine. I hate where we are, but perhaps something even worse got stopped --- for a while --- and our federal courts will continue to function.
Yes, precisely, what is to prevent Trump, Musk & Vought from thoroughly exploiting the shutdown, demand their compliant Republican-controlled Congress refuse to compromise – and simply waiting until Democrats cave?
They're doing it anyway.
That is actually not correct. They are being pushed back by many judges and rulings, not just a few. Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans Services and Social Security still exist. All that would be on the chopping block for the rest of the year. These people intend to destroy the public sector. We've just bought ourselves some time.
You are wrong. We need to completely clean house. The Dem party has no more leadership. We’ve needed to clean house for years.
You are entitled to your doubts. I had ones as well, but they were more in line with Mr. Ornstein's article and my research. I'm sharing them because I am concerned about the number of Democrats who believe Schumer's dubious scenario. If he was so sure about what would happen, why did he agree to the united Democratic response, that House members bravely upheld, and then secretly cave without telling anyone, betraying all the Congressional Democrats, as well as voters.
A Quinnipiac University poll from the day before showed that 32% of Americans would blame Democrats, but that 31% would blame Republicans, and 22% would blame Trump. If the polling was accurate, we would have been ahead by 20%.
On Wednesday afternoon, why would Jen have sent us a short video urging us to call Schumer and ask him to reverse himself, and vote "NO." There were a number of reasons why, but she also mentioned that if Schumer voted "yes," he would be destroying a critical component of the system of checks and balances: Congress' "power of the purse." I read that it was written into the Constitution to protect the American people from future presidents, like the founders had experienced with the monarchs in England, from abusing their office.
And, Jen had said that Schumer's action might destroy the basis of some upcoming lawsuits that Norm et. al had filed because Trump was usurping the budget, which is against the law. But if Congress voluntarily relinquishes their power, it could impact those cases.
On Wednesday night, all the Democratic Senators, but one, said they would vote "No" on the CR. On Thursday, Schumer publicly caved, and spent the next two days doing interviews, in which he put forth his questionable shutdown scenario that was meant to frighten Democratic voters, and called Senators to sway them to his side.
Finally, if Schumer didn't want the shutdown he'd agreed to, why didn't he negotiate? He had almost all the Democratic Senatorial votes in his pocket, and that's the optimum time to do so. Republicans badly needed eight of them, and they couldn't or wouldn't go back to Trump without a win. This is when a leader shows what he/she is made of. And, Schumer quit, without a fight.
His weakness emboldened Trump, humiliated the Democratic party, and infuriated Democratic voters...all because he used the deceitful "scare tactics" Mr. Ornstein described.
When Senator John Thune was interviewed about what happened, he laughed aloud and said, "We gave Democrats nothing, and Schumer still caved." And, Trump publicly thanked Schumer for his bravery, which says it all. If that's the behavior we want in our Minority Leader, we've got it in Schumer. If not, we need to let our senators know.
Just to be clear, I am commenting the dangers of a government shutdown – not defending the way Chuck Schumer handled this. I think his lack of effective messaging to the American people, his failure to fully coordinate with his own Senate caucus and with Jeffries, and his failure to lay a better strategy, was deeply damaging.
Here is a thought from the founder of the Hopium Chronicles:
"To me the most compelling reason to pass the CR and keep the government funded is that WE ARE NOT ADEQUATELY PREPARED for the fight that would have ensued. Simply, Senator Schumer has failed to use these last few months to start forging his team into an effective fighting force."
– Simon Rosenberg
I apologize if I didn't correctly understand your argument. From the moment I heard that Schumer had caved, I felt so much anger and rage, that I could feel my brain cells dying. I initially thought I agreed with Simon Rosenberg that we are not adequately prepared, and need to "forge an effective fighting force.” But, then I saw videos of Democratic politicians talking with their constituents and others. Yes, Democrat voters want a plan, but they also want their questions answered, and to be heard now!
I saw Bernie Sanders speaking to large crowds in Iowa City, on his Stop Oligarchy tour. They clearly love him, and he spoke to two crowds--one after another-- because there was such an overflow. I saw Chris Murphy speaking to his constituents in Connecticut, and he is a far more animated speaker when he talks to his constituents than when I’ve seen him elsewhere, although he was very good with John Stewart. I saw Mark Kelley and Ruben Gallegos in Arizona. This was possibly where one of the constituents said, “We need to know what to do. If they’re going to take away our healthcare, we need to prepare for that. It would feel like they are burning down our house, with our child inside.” And people cheered.
The only Democrat who cancelled his appearances was Chuck Schumer who was going on a book tour, which was cancelled for security reasons because people hate him. FYI..I just realized that I didn't see any women politicians because their names didn't appear. And, I'm too tired to look further tonight.
He's doing it anyway!
I hear your concerns. Let me take them point by point. 1) Trump is already doing this. It's already hypercharged. 2) A budget deal will emerge, because the pain will be intense. We've had shutdowns before, and the longest it lasted was, I believe, around 30 days. 3) with Trump defying the courts right now, it's again already happening. Will the police/military/Secret Service step in to enforce the judge's order? 4) Their megaphone is feeling the stress of such pain as is already being felt. MeidasTouch Network is outperforming both Rogan and Fox News, and there is an increasing number of Trump voters being personally affected by the policies. All the propaganda won't convince them when their own lives are at stake. See your point 5. 5) That wouldn't change if there was a shutdown, it would accelerate.
#1: We ain’t seen hypercharged yet!
#2: Whose pain? Certainly not Trump’s! Your assertion that "a budget deal will emerge" is wishful thinking. Nothing assures this, especially if Trump insists the GOP-controlled Congress refuse to compromise.
#3: So far, the Trump regime is largely obeying court orders, at least not defying them wholesale.
#4: Are you seriously claiming MeidasTouch now has more viewers than Fox?? Sorry, right-wing media has a far bigger megaphone, a bigger audience and a far wider reach.
#5: We discount the power of Big Lie propaganda at our own peril. 70% of Republicans believe Biden stole the 2020 election – far more than before January 6th Insurrection.
I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell.
Pushing the idea that "Democrats" should do more to stop Trump is simply spleen venting. The only people who can stop Trump are the voters and possibly the courts (if Trump abides by court decisions). Expecting the opposition party to "do something" when they hold none of the levers of power other than the filibuster is equivalent to believing in the story of the little Dutch boy who held back a flood by putting his finger in a hole in a dyke. It's a nice story but completely untethered from reality. The Democrats can (and must) improve their messaging to improve their chances of retaking the House and Senate in 2026, but they can't and won't stop Trump until then.
Lawrence,
By voting to advance the CR, Democrats ceded what little legal leverage they had to stop Trump’s lawbreaking and Constitution trashing. And much more importantly, in my judgement, they ceded a considerable amount of the moral high ground as well because it looks to the American people like they have no problem with Trump’s egregious abuses of power.
I fear that this capitulation by Schumer will embolden Trump to abuse his power even more and, as a result, Americans and everyone else will suffer far more over the medium and long term. Trump knows full well that a federal government shutdown and/or Democratic unity against advancing the CR would have hurt him and Republicans politically and it is why he profusely thanked Schumer for voting to advance it.
This is assuming that we will have free and fair elections in 2026. There is some evidence that Musk was able to hack the algorithms of voting machines in swing states in the last election. Trump even let it slip because he can't contain his bragging. This isn't a conspiracy theory. Google Election Truth /alliance.
Richard Wilhelm, on a side note: your namesake’s translation of the I Ching, The Book of Changes, is impeccable! I’ve enjoyed it and made good use of it for almost 50 years.
As noted by others, Trump and Musk are dismantling government regardless, and Democrats appear to be incapable of stopping that, shutdown or not.
But perhaps a larger point is that Democrats are desperate for a leader, a person to rally around - a leader of the resistance to Trump/Musk and a strong, focused, voice of opposition. Schumer had an opportunity to take that mantle, even if temporarily, and provided a focal points for Democratic action. But instead, he defaulted to the procedure and politics of 30 years ago and Democrats continue to wander around leaderless and rudderless, only capable of unorganized reaction rather than implementing any new, bolder, strategy together.
I do not believe a shutdown would accomplish anything except make it easier for Doge. What is missing from this analysis is that unstable people cannot be expected to behave rationally. None of what is outlined in this article would have the effect we would expects from rational players, because they are not rational. Without exception everyone in this administration is behaving exactly like the president. So, a protracted shutdown would not have been an outlandish senario. I think everyone has to come to terms with what we are facing with unstable people running things.
Trump will do his ugly victory dance no matter how many people die. It didn't have anything to do with Chuck Schumer. He's out there now actually claiming Biden's pardons weren't legal, since an autopen was used (somebody notify President Jefferson that those additional copies of the Louisiana Purchase transaction might have been invalid).
It's not a popular thing to say, but Schumer was right on the merits. Had the government shut down (which is what they REALLY wanted), it would have legally enabled President Musk to fire not just tens of thousands of more, but decide for himself (along with his mango sidekick) which parts of government to re-open, which to shut down for as long as they liked. There would have been no judicial recourse whatever
Schumer wasn't thinking about polls, he was thinking about people who would suffer the most should that have happened. It was a true Sophie's Choice, and he did what he thought was best. Other Senators chose not to go along.
We must be smart, not just angry. It's less about 'new leadership' than it is being very, very smart in the face of a very difficult hand to play. I hope we're wise enough to turn what feel like bitter defeats into later victories through hard work and skill.
Have you actually tried to talk with MAGAs about the depredations? They are generally thrilled and I have encountered a number who now see their Trump-caused problems as just the noble sacrifice that Trump has sold it as being. From the interactions I’m having with the neutrals—those who stayed home—they are still shrugging their shoulders because what’s happening to the government still isn’t affecting them enough to care. It remains abstract and the Democrats still sound shrill. I have come to the conclusion that the more suffering at the hands of the Right the better, and the sooner the better. I’ve thought about it a lot and still think AOC, Pelosi, and Schiff were right to be against the CR and right to call out Schumer. He is not rising to the occasion and it’s time for him to go.
I have been saying Schumer is a wuss and needs to be replaced for several years now. He will go down in history as the weakest majority AND minority senate leader.
Allow me to gently push back. Norman, you said "All of which is to say that there would never be a six-month shutdown, much less one lasting an entire year. Of course there would be upheavals and damage. But the Schumer fallacy is to assume or propose that by capitulating, the damage will be less."
Thanks. But why is that fallacious reasoning? Schumer specifically explained that "If government were to shut down, Doge has a plan in place to exploit the crisis for maximum destruction. A shutdown will allow Doge to shift into overdrive. It would give Donald Trump and Doge the keys to the city, state and country. Donald Trump and Elon Musk would be free to destroy vital government services at a much faster rate than they can right now and over a much broader field of destruction that they would render."
Later in the NYT interview he said "A shutdown would shut down all government agencies, and it would solely be up to Trump and DOGE and Musk what to open again, because they could determine what was essential. So their goal of decimating the whole federal government, of cutting agency after agency after agency, would occur under a shutdown.”
Shutting down all government agencies would have far, far more damage in a short period of time than anything Trump has done so far. This, I believe, is the core of Schumer's argument. The "six months" is just a ballpark estimate, not an exact prediction.
It wasn’t a choice between the GOP CR and a shutdown. The Dems had discussed leaving the budget as is for a month while negotiations could take place. Schumer didn’t push for that option and caved like the weasel he’s always been!
Following up on this, I've taken the time to write an article that attempts to analyze this contentious issue. See "Part 1. Chuck Schumer and the Democrats' Impossible Choice" at https://analyticalactivist.substack.com/p/part-1-chuck-schumer-and-the-democrats
The subtitle is "The Dems faced an impossible choice between two evils on the Continuing Resolution. This led to considerable anger. Here we analyze that choice in an attempt to change emotion to reason." Hope this helps!
I’m sorry, but I think those dire consequences are what was called for. What Trump and Musk are doing is still abstract to most. It needs to hit home, and, to my mind, the more severely and quickly the better. Water under the bridge now.
There was no good option and it is impossible to know whether the consequences of a shutdown would be worse than the status quo. We do know that Trump is emboldened and is recognizing no restraints, unlike his previous term. There are very few laws or guidelines governing a shutdown. Other presidents have not taken undue liberties under that circumstance. Can we trust Trump to restrain himself? I think not.
There are arguments for and against what Schumer did. How about a Contrarian debate with two experts?
In case you hadn't noticed, Trump and his "congress" are, in charge. Democrats? Damaged and in disarray.
The only way to stop Trump now is legally. And, as I have said before, you had better get cracking on that for shortly he will have that all buttoned up.
We are, at this writing an autocratic Fascist state. Trump will have your democracy and freedom all taken care of. Journalism will only remember how it used to be. Fear will reign supreme!
Schumer’s 180 degree flip on the CR; from a definite “NO” to a Neville Chamberlain capitulation was disheartening to say the least. Words do matter. A visionary leader has the courage to face down the foes of democracy. Schumer has become the Mitch McConnell of the Democratic Party.
So true, Norm! Every word. May I suggest something to my fellow activist Contrarians? If you urged your senators to vote no on the CR and they did vote no, take a minute to thank them with a call to their offices or an email - they need to know when we appreciate them taking a stand so they will be motivated to keep it up!
It wasn’t a choice between the GOP CR and a shutdown. The Dems had discussed leaving the budget as is for a month while negotiations could take place. Schumer didn’t push for that option and caved like the weasel he’s always been!
I don't agree. I think he did not oppose the fire brands in the party and the party is not demoralized. We can demoralize ourselves if we start shooting each other rather than going forward from where we are. Schumer did what he did because he thought it was the right thing. AOC and Bernie and Walz are doing the right thing too. What is demoralizing for me is this attack on our own instead of taking the fight back against Trump and Doge. I still think we would have won had we stuck with Biden and not fallen apart. Trump is a viscous attack dog and his machine will always find the soft spot. We don't have to do the attack ourselves. Just get out and get them where we can and stop shooting ourselves when we don't all agree.
I wholeheartedly agree with most of your comment. However, I’m sorry, but we could not have won with the Biden that showed up to debate Trump.
But even before that, Team Biden’s failure was to not loudly take credit for all of President Biden’s great accomplishments. That needed to be done continuously throughout his entire presidency. Instead, Team Biden allowed Trump & Co to dominate the news with lies, negativity and four years of shit-talking America!
That collective failure of communication was reflected in the polls.
Just more from dreary dinosaurs who drudge about the halls of Congress representing the Doolittle Democratic party. I am so sick to death of these same old, dead-on-the-inside faces scolding their constituents that they know how to play politics. Hello! We have soulless Nazis in complete control of our nation, set on dismantling every aspect of decency let alone democracy and all that America stands for, and has ever stood for. Shumer and his fellow nitwit fossils are standing there telling us to lay down and play dead? He needs to retire! Only a handful of members of our Congress are out there yelling and screaming and telling us the truth, Bernie, Jamie Raskins, Schiff, AOC, Murphy, Walz... If we don't resist, I mean really resist with like a TEN MILLIOM PERSON MARCH ON WASHINGTON, WE'RE FUCKED! The constitutional crisis is now. Trump has ignored two federal judge orders. He's on a roll and the next rule he ignores will be even more blatant. And he's now in communication with Putin about the future of our planet? No, playing politics is not the strategy that is going to stop these people. This is civil war, folks!
I support Schumer's decision, perhaps not the messaging part, if only to keep the courts open. How could we allow our strongest line of defense to be sidelined?