Joyce, I am a fan and a subscriber of yours. I am also a long-time fan of diagrams and graphics as part of presentations. I have to confess I don't understand the graphics in this Contrarian feature. Whichever thermometer-thing I click on takes me to the same place, where most of the information bubbles are the same as when I click on a different thermometer-thing. The text inside the bubbles can tend to repeat some of the text in the non-graphic written part. No disrespect - I like the Democracy Index, and I really want to like this graphic thingy better, and am trying my best to make a constructive comment. But I don't get it.
Thanks, Bruce. I, too, am a fan and subscribe to both Civil Discourse and the Contrarian. But I am baffled by the graphics and have not been able to understand what they mean or what they add to the text. Joyce, I know you’ve written that you worked hard on this, so please shine a bit of light on it.
Today, all I get for clicking on the Index graphic is the full-screen image of the Index graphic without any functionality. To the left of this image there is a "<" control which if I click it gets me to the pic of Mike with the baby. To the right of that image there is a ">" control which gets me back to the Index graphic. This is the situation both when I access the Index via a link in an email and when I go into the Contrarian on SubStack on my laptop and select the Index from there.
In the past I have gotten something interactive.
My sentiments are the same as those of Bruce Bender, but the interactive Index never made sense to me either.
Democratic Strategy Amid Authoritarian Drift: The Question of Party Switching and Congressional Continuity
Given the growing authoritarianism of the Trump Administration, are leading Democrats actively trying to encourage Republican Congresspersons who care about the rule of law and their constitutional role in preserving the Republic to change their party affiliation, particularly in exchange for Democratic support in future elections such as 2026? This question takes on greater urgency in light of concerns about the effective functioning of government and continued U.S. food, medical, and humanitarian assistance abroad—especially for Republicans representing districts won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
Lack of Coordinated Democratic Recruitment of Republicans
As of mid-2025, there is no publicly documented, coordinated effort by Democratic Party leadership to recruit Republican members of Congress to switch party affiliation in exchange for becoming Democratic candidates in the 2026 elections. While individual cases of party-switching have occurred, they are rare and typically driven by personal or local political calculations rather than any national strategy.
One notable exception is former Republican Congressman David Jolly, who announced his candidacy for Florida governor in 2026 as a Democrat. Jolly, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, left the Republican Party in 2018 and later registered as a Democrat, citing deep concerns about the party's authoritarian drift.
Barriers to Party Switching Among Republicans
Several interlocking factors help explain why more Republican lawmakers have not switched parties or publicly broken with Trump, despite grave concerns about democratic erosion:
Fear of Retaliation
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has stated bluntly: "We're all afraid," acknowledging the risk of political retaliation for opposing Trump.
Representative Eric Swalwell (D-California) noted that GOP colleagues are "terrified" of crossing Trump, citing fears of harassment, threats to personal safety, and attacks on family members.
Political Calculations
Trump remains dominant within the GOP base. Crossing him risks primary challenges, donor withdrawal, loss of committee assignments, and electoral defeat.
Lack of Incentives
Democrats have offered no public guarantees of institutional support, resources, or favorable committee placements to potential defectors. Without tangible benefits, the personal and professional costs of switching remain prohibitive.
Ideological Gaps
Even anti-Trump Republicans may diverge sharply from the Democratic platform on issues such as taxation, environmental policy, labor rights, and regulation.
In short, the risks of defection—both political and personal—appear to outweigh the perceived rewards, even in increasingly unstable times.
Congressional Deaths and Democratic Losses Since 2024
Since the 2024 congressional elections, several sitting Democratic members of the House have passed away, creating temporary vacancies and shifting the balance of power. Below is an updated overview:
Rep. Gerry Connolly (D–VA-11)
Date of Death: May 21, 2025 (Esophageal cancer)
Background: Senior member and top Democrat on House Oversight.
Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election scheduled for Sept. 9, 2025.
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D–AZ-7)
Date of Death: March 13, 2025 (Complications from cancer treatment)
Background: Progressive stalwart from southern Arizona.
Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election set for Sept. 23, 2025.
Rep. Sylvester Turner (D–TX-18)
Date of Death: March 5, 2025 (Natural causes)
Background: Newly elected after serving as Houston’s mayor.
Successor: Seat vacant; special election scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D–TX-18)
Date of Death: July 19, 2024 (Pancreatic cancer)
Successor: Erica Lee Carter (D), elected Nov. 2024, served remainder of term.
Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D–NJ-10)
Date of Death: April 24, 2024 (Heart attack)
Successor: LaMonica McIver (D), elected Sept. 2024, sworn in Sept. 23, 2024.
Implications
These vacancies have temporarily diminished Democratic numbers in the House, exacerbating the already narrow partisan divide and complicating the party's ability to counteract authoritarian moves by the executive branch. Timely special elections, succession planning, and strategic outreach to principled Republicans remain vital to safeguarding democratic governance.
It seems as though the fantasy of Dante’s Inferno has become reality as the nation spirals ever faster downward aided by a cabal of witless SCOTUS justices and spineless Republican politicians. How else to explain a decision by SCOTUS to allow the DOGE team continued access to Social Security data when they have proven demonstrably inept at analysis or verifying their publicized savings, yet deny the public access to DOGEs internal records!!!
Mike Johnson would be the last person that would get to hide behind my baby. The GOP is a non party. They don’t have the moral compass to call Trump or any of his minions out. The voters will have to get rid of them.
I think it’s a very rich statement that Vought made about how long he and others have been in the “salt mines” with administrations and is so grateful that this one is basically giving them the right to override everything we’ve ever known! An embittered little man who says Congress is divorced from reality when actually it is he and the other wealthy jerks.
The damage has happened and just keeps on happening....."We rely on our allies’ intelligence for our own security; but other countries will not be willing to share sensitive information if they do not trust us. That is why Ukraine’s decision to keep the American intelligence community in the dark about this operation beforehand is so troubling — evidently, they no longer see the United States as a safe, reliable partner." Maybe we should all refuse to pay our federal income taxes until this regime is expelled.
I have had that thought many times. Our government isn't planning on spending our money to help us - why continue to pay them to pad their own pockets now?
I really think "Project 2025" is an incorrect moniker. It's really "Project 1984" by George Orwell. And it seems this is what the GOP has wanted all along. Will the SCOTUS rejoice when the DOGE boys publish their passwords to their bank accounts? That's what they think of democracy?
Re: Travel bans/ National security — If this or any other admin was truly interested in national security - which includes minimization of crime - improved gun laws wd enacted, as more Americans kill & threaten each other than any immigrants — and certainly not students speaking their mind! As it is, a ‘politicization of everything!’ abounds, Trump & admin have shown a willingness weaponize all available levers of govt. - the King has officially gone mad / rogue.
Trump’s thrashing about with various anti-immigration actions based on almost zero supporting crime stats demonstrates his racist / white supremacist bona fides — as you say “the *dehumanization of the “other” at the heart of the order remains the same.” But this also gives him an opportunity to establish a police state — the most worrying aspect of increasingly brutal ICE actions.
How much his actions against immigrants are a play to his racist base & ‘fulfilling his promises’ vs a power play shoring up his credibility after a disastrous overall performance in his first 5 months in office is anyone’s guess (think tariffs & international alienation).
Already it is being said that his over-the-top 50% tariffs on steel were a result of Trump’s thin-skinned response to being referred to as TACO Don, another drastic example of him shoring up his ego at the expense of many jobs & the industry/ economy the tariffs are supposedly in service of.
Meanwhile ongoing ‘Dem conversations’, naval gazing and advice abounds. “it’s not enough to just not be Trump/ Republican!’ some say, and ‘But Biden!’ continues unabated, even in these substacks.
If anyone else can see how the last 5 months cd lead to ‘expanding his base’ I’m all ears. It really *should be enough ‘just not to be Republican’ even now — let alone when all the chickens come home to roost 3.5 yrs from now. 🙄
Joyce, I am a fan and a subscriber of yours. I am also a long-time fan of diagrams and graphics as part of presentations. I have to confess I don't understand the graphics in this Contrarian feature. Whichever thermometer-thing I click on takes me to the same place, where most of the information bubbles are the same as when I click on a different thermometer-thing. The text inside the bubbles can tend to repeat some of the text in the non-graphic written part. No disrespect - I like the Democracy Index, and I really want to like this graphic thingy better, and am trying my best to make a constructive comment. But I don't get it.
Thanks, Bruce. I, too, am a fan and subscribe to both Civil Discourse and the Contrarian. But I am baffled by the graphics and have not been able to understand what they mean or what they add to the text. Joyce, I know you’ve written that you worked hard on this, so please shine a bit of light on it.
Today, all I get for clicking on the Index graphic is the full-screen image of the Index graphic without any functionality. To the left of this image there is a "<" control which if I click it gets me to the pic of Mike with the baby. To the right of that image there is a ">" control which gets me back to the Index graphic. This is the situation both when I access the Index via a link in an email and when I go into the Contrarian on SubStack on my laptop and select the Index from there.
In the past I have gotten something interactive.
My sentiments are the same as those of Bruce Bender, but the interactive Index never made sense to me either.
Sorry
Hi Joyce and friends,
I would love to hear your reaction to:
A Vital Topic for D+1 Day (i.e. June 7)
Democratic Strategy Amid Authoritarian Drift: The Question of Party Switching and Congressional Continuity
Given the growing authoritarianism of the Trump Administration, are leading Democrats actively trying to encourage Republican Congresspersons who care about the rule of law and their constitutional role in preserving the Republic to change their party affiliation, particularly in exchange for Democratic support in future elections such as 2026? This question takes on greater urgency in light of concerns about the effective functioning of government and continued U.S. food, medical, and humanitarian assistance abroad—especially for Republicans representing districts won by Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
Lack of Coordinated Democratic Recruitment of Republicans
As of mid-2025, there is no publicly documented, coordinated effort by Democratic Party leadership to recruit Republican members of Congress to switch party affiliation in exchange for becoming Democratic candidates in the 2026 elections. While individual cases of party-switching have occurred, they are rare and typically driven by personal or local political calculations rather than any national strategy.
One notable exception is former Republican Congressman David Jolly, who announced his candidacy for Florida governor in 2026 as a Democrat. Jolly, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, left the Republican Party in 2018 and later registered as a Democrat, citing deep concerns about the party's authoritarian drift.
Barriers to Party Switching Among Republicans
Several interlocking factors help explain why more Republican lawmakers have not switched parties or publicly broken with Trump, despite grave concerns about democratic erosion:
Fear of Retaliation
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has stated bluntly: "We're all afraid," acknowledging the risk of political retaliation for opposing Trump.
Representative Eric Swalwell (D-California) noted that GOP colleagues are "terrified" of crossing Trump, citing fears of harassment, threats to personal safety, and attacks on family members.
Political Calculations
Trump remains dominant within the GOP base. Crossing him risks primary challenges, donor withdrawal, loss of committee assignments, and electoral defeat.
Lack of Incentives
Democrats have offered no public guarantees of institutional support, resources, or favorable committee placements to potential defectors. Without tangible benefits, the personal and professional costs of switching remain prohibitive.
Ideological Gaps
Even anti-Trump Republicans may diverge sharply from the Democratic platform on issues such as taxation, environmental policy, labor rights, and regulation.
In short, the risks of defection—both political and personal—appear to outweigh the perceived rewards, even in increasingly unstable times.
Congressional Deaths and Democratic Losses Since 2024
Since the 2024 congressional elections, several sitting Democratic members of the House have passed away, creating temporary vacancies and shifting the balance of power. Below is an updated overview:
Rep. Gerry Connolly (D–VA-11)
Date of Death: May 21, 2025 (Esophageal cancer)
Background: Senior member and top Democrat on House Oversight.
Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election scheduled for Sept. 9, 2025.
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D–AZ-7)
Date of Death: March 13, 2025 (Complications from cancer treatment)
Background: Progressive stalwart from southern Arizona.
Successor: Seat currently vacant; special election set for Sept. 23, 2025.
Rep. Sylvester Turner (D–TX-18)
Date of Death: March 5, 2025 (Natural causes)
Background: Newly elected after serving as Houston’s mayor.
Successor: Seat vacant; special election scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D–TX-18)
Date of Death: July 19, 2024 (Pancreatic cancer)
Successor: Erica Lee Carter (D), elected Nov. 2024, served remainder of term.
Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D–NJ-10)
Date of Death: April 24, 2024 (Heart attack)
Successor: LaMonica McIver (D), elected Sept. 2024, sworn in Sept. 23, 2024.
Implications
These vacancies have temporarily diminished Democratic numbers in the House, exacerbating the already narrow partisan divide and complicating the party's ability to counteract authoritarian moves by the executive branch. Timely special elections, succession planning, and strategic outreach to principled Republicans remain vital to safeguarding democratic governance.
It seems as though the fantasy of Dante’s Inferno has become reality as the nation spirals ever faster downward aided by a cabal of witless SCOTUS justices and spineless Republican politicians. How else to explain a decision by SCOTUS to allow the DOGE team continued access to Social Security data when they have proven demonstrably inept at analysis or verifying their publicized savings, yet deny the public access to DOGEs internal records!!!
It's all about feeding Palantir.
Mike Johnson would be the last person that would get to hide behind my baby. The GOP is a non party. They don’t have the moral compass to call Trump or any of his minions out. The voters will have to get rid of them.
I think it’s a very rich statement that Vought made about how long he and others have been in the “salt mines” with administrations and is so grateful that this one is basically giving them the right to override everything we’ve ever known! An embittered little man who says Congress is divorced from reality when actually it is he and the other wealthy jerks.
The damage has happened and just keeps on happening....."We rely on our allies’ intelligence for our own security; but other countries will not be willing to share sensitive information if they do not trust us. That is why Ukraine’s decision to keep the American intelligence community in the dark about this operation beforehand is so troubling — evidently, they no longer see the United States as a safe, reliable partner." Maybe we should all refuse to pay our federal income taxes until this regime is expelled.
I have had that thought many times. Our government isn't planning on spending our money to help us - why continue to pay them to pad their own pockets now?
I really think "Project 2025" is an incorrect moniker. It's really "Project 1984" by George Orwell. And it seems this is what the GOP has wanted all along. Will the SCOTUS rejoice when the DOGE boys publish their passwords to their bank accounts? That's what they think of democracy?
Re: Travel bans/ National security — If this or any other admin was truly interested in national security - which includes minimization of crime - improved gun laws wd enacted, as more Americans kill & threaten each other than any immigrants — and certainly not students speaking their mind! As it is, a ‘politicization of everything!’ abounds, Trump & admin have shown a willingness weaponize all available levers of govt. - the King has officially gone mad / rogue.
Trump’s thrashing about with various anti-immigration actions based on almost zero supporting crime stats demonstrates his racist / white supremacist bona fides — as you say “the *dehumanization of the “other” at the heart of the order remains the same.” But this also gives him an opportunity to establish a police state — the most worrying aspect of increasingly brutal ICE actions.
How much his actions against immigrants are a play to his racist base & ‘fulfilling his promises’ vs a power play shoring up his credibility after a disastrous overall performance in his first 5 months in office is anyone’s guess (think tariffs & international alienation).
Already it is being said that his over-the-top 50% tariffs on steel were a result of Trump’s thin-skinned response to being referred to as TACO Don, another drastic example of him shoring up his ego at the expense of many jobs & the industry/ economy the tariffs are supposedly in service of.
Meanwhile ongoing ‘Dem conversations’, naval gazing and advice abounds. “it’s not enough to just not be Trump/ Republican!’ some say, and ‘But Biden!’ continues unabated, even in these substacks.
If anyone else can see how the last 5 months cd lead to ‘expanding his base’ I’m all ears. It really *should be enough ‘just not to be Republican’ even now — let alone when all the chickens come home to roost 3.5 yrs from now. 🙄
i think you are right. musk is throughout our systems.
Is the democracy index being updated?
We must go to the root of this political problem:
https://open.substack.com/pub/arthurbeckman/p/we-must-go-to-the-root-of-this-political?r=n828x&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false