Virginia just got Democrats four steps closer to flipping the House. So voters just passed a ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional districts. This means that this fall, Virginia will likely go from six Democrats and five Republicans representing the state to ten Democrats and one Republican.
Normally, congressional redistricting happens every ten years after the census to make sure that everyone in the state is fairly represented in Congress. But last year, at Trump’s urging, because he was worried about Republicans losing the House, he convinced Texas to redistrict mid-decade to give Republicans an advantage.
And then everything cascaded from there. Then California responded by passing a ballot measure to give Democrats a five seat advantage, effectively canceling out the Texas gains. And in the past year, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri got in the mix, adding seats for Republicans a total of four between them, while Utah added one for Democrats.
Next week, Florida Republicans will be discussing changing the state’s congressional maps that could add between 1 and 5 seats to Republicans in the House. And in June, the Supreme Court could be issuing a ruling on a voting rights case that could add another 19 seats to Republicans in the South.
You know those majority Black congressional districts in southern states that were drawn to protect Black voters so that they would always have representation in Congress in states that historically disenfranchized them? Well, the Supreme Court could soon say “no more.”
Oh, and the ballot measure that just passed in Virginia yesterday?
Well, the state Supreme Court could still strike it down. But if you take anything away from this video, make it this: It’s not guaranteed that these districts go for Republicans or Democrats. Voters can change their mind. We’re already seeing this in Texas. Latinos are having second thoughts about voting for Trump based on what he’s done around immigration.
It’s not guaranteed that these districts will 100% go Republican or Democrat in the fall. So stay tuned and for updates.
Ben Sheehan is a political commentator and digital creator. He specializes in civics education, which is showcased in his latest book, What Does the Constitution Actually Say?: A Non-Boring Guide to How Our Democracy Is Supposed to Work. Check out his Substack, Politics Made Easy.
