Trump Blew it on Immigration

MAGA discredited itself on an issue Republicans used to own

No issue more defined Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns and two terms than promises surrounding illegal immigration, and no sentiment more defined the MAGA movement than vitriolic xenophobia. Getting a close look at what that means to most people seems to have repulsed Americans, thereby breaking Republicans’ grip on the issue. An enormous survey of nearly 5500 Americans (with a margin of error of only +/- 1.49%) from PRRI shows the extent of Americans’ distaste for mass deportation.

Trump personally has lost the country. Overall, his approval is at a measly 36 percent (with only 28 percent from independents). The pollsters found that:

Just 35% of Americans rate President Donald Trump’s handling of immigration favorably, compared with 61% who rate his actions unfavorably; nearly half (48%) of Americans hold very unfavorable views of his handling of immigration. In March 2025, 48% of Americans approved of the job Donald Trump was doing on immigration.

Since March of 2025, all groups’ approval has slid, with Republicans falling from 90 percent to 78 percent; Democrats, from 13 percent to 5 percent; and independents from 48 percent to 29 percent. The poll is no outlier. Reuters reports Trump’s overall approval dropped to 36 percent; meanwhile, just “35% of Americans approve of the U.S. strikes on Iran, down from 37% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week. Some 61% disapproved of the strikes, compared to 59% last week.”

(Credit: Douglas Rissing)

ICE is also held in low repute. Just 33 percent hold favorable views of ICE, “down 6 points from 39% in September 2025.” It’s not just Democrats who feel as much: “Favorable views of ICE officers have declined across all partisans, with significant drops among Republicans, from 78% to 63%, among independents, from 34% to 26%, and among Democrats, from 10% to 6%,” PRRI reports. The reaction among Hispanics of various religious denominations is also telling: “Hispanic Catholics (79%) are 33 percentage points more likely than white Catholics to hold an unfavorable view of Trump’s handling of immigration. Notably, three-quarters of Hispanic Protestants (74%), a group that supported Trump in the 2024 election, also disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration.”

The specifics get worse for MAGA: 57 percent think ICE surges make communities less safe; only 36 percent (just 29 percent of independents) favor increased funding for ICE; 61 percent (67 percent of independents) oppose agents wearing masks; and 61 percent (63 percent of independents) think immigrants regardless of status should have the right to challenge deportation in court. Republicans, on some issues by large margins, are on the other side of other Americans. (Trump certainly knows his base.)

However, there is bipartisan support in two areas:

Most Americans (72%), including majorities of both Democrats (90%) and Republicans (55%), agree that “We should provide refuge for people who come to the U.S. if they are in serious danger in their home country.”

Most Americans (81%), including majorities of Democrats (93%) and Republicans (65%) oppose “allowing the U.S. government to collect personal data and build a database of Americans who protest government actions.”

All of this suggests Republicans’ reputation for being ‘tough on immigration’ has become (outside the MAGA cult) ‘scary, chaotic, cruel, and ineffective on immigration.’ That suggests Democrats should not be shy about stepping into the leadership vacuum on a number of fronts.

First, Democrats should be clear that for weeks Democrats have been supporting the deal Trump vaguely came around to on Tuesday, namely, funding the rest of DHS while leaving DHS to negotiate separately. The public needs to understand that Trump has not only made a mess of our immigration enforcement system, he has also screwed up air travel (not to mention FEMA in the process). Trump’s utter inability to operate competently and Republicans’ refusal to stand up to him (i.e., waiting for him to realize the Democrats were right all along) explain the chaos and dysfunction of the federal government. Trump cannot govern; Republicans will not govern. The public suffers as a result.

Second, while few regret Kristi Noem’s exit, her replacement as DHS secretary, Markwayne Mullin, will likely be just as bad. Throughout, Stephen Miller remains the architect of the monstrous deportation scheme.

Nevertheless, we hear: “[W]hether they voted for him or not, senators from across the ideological spectrum suggested that they had been encouraged by a characteristic that has been notably lacking in most of President Trump’s other cabinet choices: Mr. Mullin is someone they know well and believe they can work with,” as the New York Times intoned. Good grief. Democrats falling over themselves to applaud the “character” of an election denier with “anger” issues (as Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) observed) beggars belief.

Whatever Mullin says he will do (e.g., obtain judicial warrants, bar arrests at sensitive locations, cooperate with state murder investigation, implement “the training, use-of-force and detention facility standards that were in place under the Biden administration”) is meaningless unless codified and accompanied by a private right of action for individuals to sue if their rights are violated. Moreover, Democrats must emphatically oppose mass arrest and inhumane detention of nonviolent undocumented immigrants. Democrats should not tolerate the regime’s familiar stratagem of changing its rhetoric but not its policies.

As we learned in Noem’s disastrous final hearings, DHS is awash in money, spends it extravagantly on self-promotion, and appears to operate without basic conflict of interest controls. Democrats certainly should demand a “waste, fraud, and abuse” audit before giving it another dime.

Third, Democrats must adamantly oppose any effort to sneak portions of the SAVE Act voter suppression bill into reconciliation. Reconciliation is for tax and spending measures, not major policy changes (let alone voting rights suppression). Threatening states with financial punishment (as appears to be the gameplan) if they do not disenfranchise millions of Americans is as unconstitutional and unacceptable as directly mandating those tactics. (As they did with the big ugly bill, Democrats will need to mount a full-court press in the “Byrd bath” process when the parliamentarian rules on extraneous measures.)

In sum, Trump and Republicans are in a political death spiral with disastrous midterms looming. Democrats should clearly and strenuously define their position: Reopen the non-ICE functions of DHS, demand tough and enforceable reforms to rein in ICE, drain the DHS swamp, reject Trump’s Jim Crow election maneuver, and advance their own immigration reform bill (or reintroduce the same bipartisan bill Trump nixed because he wanted to keep the wedge issue alive in the 2024 election), which secures the border, deports dangerous criminals, and processes asylum claims efficiently — without terrorizing communities, killing people, and wreaking havoc on the economy. To win in November, Democrats, confident that Americans are with them on a humane, sensible immigration policy, must maintain that policy and political advantage on an issue Republicans used to own.