Donald Trump, by endorsing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, helped drive the nail in the coffin of Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn’s long political career. Cornyn was walloped by double digits in Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary runoff. We will have much more to say about that race soon. However, no one should confuse Trump’s belated decision to hop on the MAGA bandwagon with his years of success in bending reality to his will — and then compelling others to operate in his distortion field.
For his entire adult life, Trump has dissembled, exaggerated, and outright lied about everything from his wealth to his poll numbers to the economy to Covid to the 2020 election. Whether it is small, stupid lies (e.g., awards he never won) or cringeworthy stories about invented encounters (the infamous stories that begin: “With tears in his eyes, he came up to me. ‘Sir …’”), or jaw-dropping reversals of reality (blaming not Russia but Ukraine for the war), the pathological narcissist-in-chief creates his own reality, daring followers to question him and sneering at “fake news” that reveals his lies.
Sadly, he has largely succeeded with bluster and fabrication inside the cult of personality where loyalty is measured by eagerness to adopt the most idiotic falsehoods, only sycophants (and dullards) get hired, and the right-wing media runs interference for him 24/7.
But the lies and distortions and excuses only work up to a point. When reality becomes dire enough, Trump can no longer convince even his supporters to disbelieve their lying eyes. And that has been happening a lot lately.
Trump’s approval numbers overall, even among Republicans, are sinking. Reuters reported last week: “Donald Trump’s presidential approval rating fell to nearly its lowest level since he returned to the White House, hit by a drop in support among Republicans, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.” His overall approval plummeted to 35 percent, but most noteworthy is the reality that “Discontent is spreading within Trump’s party, with 21% of Republicans saying they now disapprove of the president’s performance, compared to 5% just after he took office in January 2025.” In addition, “Some 79% of Republicans in the poll said Trump was doing a good job, down from 82% earlier in the month and 91% at the start of his term.” In short, more Republicans refuse to buy his fabrications. They know prices are high; they know they cannot make ends meet. Most know the war is a disaster.
Trump’s inability to bamboozle the public or foreign actors is most evident with regard to his Iran fiasco. Whatever video bombing footage he shows and whatever hyperbole he spouts, the public overwhelmingly believes it’s been a debacle. When he declares victory but previews a deal that signals capitulation, Republicans now raise a ruckus. (He responds by insulting them or introducing a non sequitur — e.g., Arab states’ adoption of the Abraham Accords.)
Trump has been even less successful in snowing the Iranians, who have learned his deadlines are phony, his threats are empty, and his premature declarations of a deal signal panic. Iran is not about to give him a deal to mask his strategic failure; they figured out months ago that the emperor has no clothes.
As the New York Times put it, “[T]he contours of a deal emerging this week to end the war reflected how Mr. Trump’s pressure campaign does not appear to have decisively shifted Iran’s stance on its nuclear program.” Frankly, Trump has not moved the Iranians one iota. As with the staged Gaza deal, Trump apparently is kicking down the road the critical demands (e.g. suspending enrichment) that may have to wait for subsequent negotiations (which could last forever). No wonder Republicans are melting down: The U.S.’s strategic defeat is too obvious to conceal.
Trump’s powers of prevarication don’t work these days with most Senate Republicans. He simply cannot convince them that a slush fund to pay off insurrectionists passes the smell test. Suddenly, Republicans who have been playing along with election denial are outraged: We can’t reward people who attacked police officers!
Most humiliating, Trump cannot convince voters he is the healthiest president ever. Too many trips to Walter Reed, too many episodes of falling asleep in public, too many pictures of discolored hands, and too many boasts about “acing” a cognitive exam have taken their toll. People don’t buy that the lumbering, speech-slurring, sleepy president is in tip-top shape.
Only 40 percent of Americans in a recent ABC-Washington Post poll think he has the “mental sharpness to serve as president, down from 47 percent last September,” the Washington Post reported. Only 44 percent (down 10 points) think he’s physically up for the job. Likewise, a YouGov poll from April found that “35% say Trump is suffering significant cognitive decline, while 13% say he’s suffering modest cognitive decline.”
Frankly, Trump’s proficiency at reshaping reality has been declining for some time. He has been spectacularly unsuccessful, even among Republicans, in convincing people there is nothing to see in the Epstein files. He had to put the kibosh on the phrase “mass deportation” and keep ICE out the headlines because Americans, by gosh, just wouldn’t buy that Renee Good and Alex Pretti were domestic terrorists and that grandmothers, toddlers, and manual labors are the “worst of the worst” who must be deported.
What happened to the master con man? For one thing, as the former reality show star should know, people get bored. The same old Trump shtick gets tiresome; the public’s patience with his excuses wears thin. They have heard all the lies, all the Biden blame-shifting, all the “two weeks away” deadline-shifting. It’s stale.
In addition, Trump’s lack of impulse control has deprived him of any semblance of credibility or normality. Vulgar outbursts (e.g., insulting murdered Rob Reiner, threatening genocide) and loony visuals (portraying the Obamas as apes and himself as Jesus) confirm something is very wrong with him. It does not help him that the legacy media outlets have become more candid about his questionable sanity.
Finally, people may go along with Trump’s bluster and BS when things are going well; but once they cannot pay the grocery bills, average Americans tend to become indignant about politicians lying to their faces. And once they start losing elections, elected Republicans feel less compelled to indulge Trump’s lies.
Trump certainly still has a grip on hardcore cult members. Primary voters will dutifully follow his lead (as they did in trouncing Cornyn) to feed Trump’s ego and exact revenge on his enemies. However, his power to convince the public at large, including Republicans more generally, that prices are low, victory in Iran was complete, his mind has never been sharper, etc., is evaporating. As he grows more frustrated, his angry outbursts will likely multiply, his search for scapegoats will accelerate, and his willingness to burn down every institution and norm to deny his enemies victory will intensify.
None of these antics will soothe the gapping neediness at the core of his being, but as his panic sets in, he will make America more chaotic, violent, and corrupt.
Is the story that “Trump’s backing leads to Paxton victory”? Or is it that “Trump jumps on Paxton bandwagon at last minute”? would Cornyn have won if Trump supported him? I suspect not, after all, this is a Texas Republican primary - the wackiest of the wackos come out to vote.
Democrats need to get to rural areas to spread truth and facts to more people. Rural areas aren’t hearing either and remain in trumps stranglehold.