Donald Trump’s latest brainstorm — the “double blockade” — makes little sense. “President Trump’s naval blockade of Iran risks further upending a global economy already battered by weeks of war, escalating a regional clash into a worldwide financial shock that could prove more devastating than the fighting itself,” the Wall Street Journal reported. “The U.S. blockade on ships entering or exiting Iranian ports is set to drain more oil from a tight market, prolong the squeeze on other key commodities flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and inject significant uncertainty into the global economy.”
If Trump was calculating that his blockade would pressure Iran to capitulate to his demands, he again misread Iran. As Max Boot explained, “Iran is a dictatorship that has shown it can withstand years of harsh sanctions and brutally repress popular protests when they arise. The United States is a democracy where the rising price of gasoline is raising inflation and sabotaging the Republican Party’s chances in the upcoming midterm election.” Boot asks the same questions Iran must be pondering: “[H]ow long can Trump keep exacerbating the energy crisis before being forced to execute a U-turn?”
Our allies once more take the brunt of Trump’s unilateral schemes, first in going to war and now on this double blockade. “For Gulf states, the damage is shaping up to be the worst in decades — sparking major economic contractions and shattering their reputation as havens for business and tourism,” the Wall Street Journal reported. Europe’s economic growth is grinding to a halt while energy prices skyrocket. Meanwhile, the IMF warns that the war and blockade(s) will fuel inflation, curtail growth, and risk global recession.
Given the damage to some 80 oil facilities, experts predict it may take two years to restore product completely. Unsurprisingly, the Saudis are already squawking about the double blockade, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, cutting off “a Red Sea chokepoint crucial for the kingdom’s remaining oil exports.” Trump has ignored their pleas to end his blockade.
This latest debacle underscores a familiar pattern:
Trump is too lazy and arrogant to learn about important issues and systematically eliminated anyone who might know better and have the temerity to go toe-to-toe with him to avert disasters. We therefore get a stream of impulsive, illogical, and often counterproductive actions. Trump will never admit errors, so blunders pile on top of each other, making bad situations even worse.
Trump never understood that Iran has the will, experience, and capacity to retaliate when threatened. He ran roughshod over weak advisers. A quagmire ensued, whereupon he deepened Iran’s resolve with genocidal threats. Then, seeking a deal any informed presidents would recognize required immense complexity, detail, and technical saavy, he sent in three know-nothings (Vice President JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner), who were ill-equipped to evaluate whether Iran was offering meaningful concessions, taking innocuous positions, or retrenching.
The U.S. side did not understand this was a negotiation, not a time for ultimatums, which Iran (with control of the Strait of Hormuz) would never accept, as outside experts have explained. Unrealistic demands about Iran’s nuclear program with “no face-saving for the Iranian side” inevitably failed.
Likewise, the U.S. made wholly unrealistic demands on the Strait, once more failing to appreciate Iran has the upper hand. “A simple return to the era of free navigation before the war is not in the cards if Iran’s leaders get their way,” Sasan Karimi, the former Iranian deputy vice president for strategy told the New York Times. And yet U.S. negotiations “demand[ed] shared management of the strait.” As we anticipated, the Iranians would never give up what Trump couldn’t win in wartime. “If anything, Iran likely believes that with the strait closed, time is on its side because it can withstand economic pressure better than the rest of the world can,” Nate Swanson observes.
Even in pre-war talks, U.S. negotiators were badly outmatched. Unlike President Obama’s JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal) negotiators, Trump did not send seasoned negotiators and technical experts. One Iranian and one European diplomat from those JCPOA negotiations explained Trump’s folly:
The American team was built around personal and political proximity to Trump rather than subject-matter expertise, and the results reflected it. When that expertise is absent from the table, the consequences are predictable: concessions are misread as provocations, normal diplomatic pacing is interpreted as bad faith, and technical realities that any specialist would recognize are treated as suspicious or incomprehensible.
During talks before the war, for instance, U.S. negotiators interpreted Iran’s refusal to accept an offer of U.S.-supplied nuclear fuel as evidence that Tehran was not serious about a deal … But any negotiator familiar with the history of U.S.-Iranian relations would have understood that this was a long-standing, benign position.
In addition, the Americans failed to recognize Iran’s offer to suspend enrichment (albeit for only 5 years) as a basis for further bargaining; they made frivolous objections because they misunderstood the nature of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Sending the same ignoramuses back to negotiate a ceasefire (with the totally inexperienced Vance) was a recipe for failure. Trump could never, and will never, admit he chose unprepared negotiators.
In sum, an impulsive, ignorant president without heavyweight advisers plunged into a disastrous war, which resulted in ineptly managed negotiations — followed by another impulsive blunder (double blockade!).
Trump’s staggering incompetence and arrogance have resulted in another predictable outcome — twice. He refuses to consult with allies before making inane moves (perhaps he avoids telling them because he fears their critique). Trump thereby loses critical expertise that could prevent fatal errors. Once he leaps into the abyss, allies who got left in the dark naturally refuse to help. Trump did this in launching the war, and again in concocting his double blockade. The Europeans refused to participate in the double-blockade; the Saudis want it ended. The Europeans went so far as to advance a plan — excluding the U.S, Israel, and Iran — to free up the Strait after the war ends. Trump again has left us isolated.
The pattern is familiar: Operating from his “gut,” Trump never learns, never solicits help, and hence, never refrains from international debacles (e.g., trade wars, threatening Greenland, war with Iran). When bullying fails, he is flummoxed and furious.
Recall that Trump was a failed businessman, who merely played a canny real estate mogul on TV. Alas, in the real world there are no editors to wipe away his errors and make sense of his babbling. Frightfully, the real-world disasters he will leave in his wake will inevitably be much more consequential than bankrupt casinos.
As a Philadelphia native whose grandparents had a summer house in Atlantic City and whose father had a colleague financial analyst who was destroyed for publishing that the casino bonds would fail, I can say that Trump’s impulsive stupidity is fueled by the knowledge that he holds the trump card - nukes. He knows he cannot fail. HE MUST BE STOPPED.
Unrealistic demands about Iran’s nuclear program with “no face-saving for the Iranian side” inevitably failed.
I know someone who used to be an attorney and as such did a lot of negotiating. She made the very astute observation that when people believe their ego-- their "face"-- is on the line they will act and negotiate against even their own interests in order to "save face". That's why good negotiators are careful to consider the ego of their opponent and always make sure they get at least a "fig leaf" or ideally some concessions that will let them save face.
Of course, Don the Con knows as much about negotiating as he knows about quantum physics.