Ukraine is Trump’s masterclass in how best to be played
Putin stalls. Trump spins.
By Brian O’Neill
On Friday, it will have been one month since President Donald Trump had a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to restart negotiations over Ukraine—an effort to end the war Russia began with its 2022 invasion. One week before that 18 March discussion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to a U.S.-brokered 30-day ceasefire on the hope that it might spark serious talks.
Zelensky kept his word. Putin didn’t. And Trump, despite his grandiose promise to end the war “in 24 hours,” has nothing to show for it.
What we do have: more Russian missile strikes, 19 civilians–including children–dead in Kryvyi Rih, and, last Friday, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff sitting for four hours with Putin in St. Petersburg–all while the Kremlin strings the U.S. along.
Trump has responded with a mix of vague frustration and strategic silence. He told reporters on March 30 he was “pissed off” at Putin, then blamed Zelensky for delaying. And this past Sunday, he echoed a Russian claim that the missile strike on Sumy that killed 34 was “a mistake.”
For a president who insists he’s a brilliant negotiator, the past 30 days have been a masterclass in how to be played. Putin is dragging out talks so he can consolidate gains. Trump is going out of his way not to admit it. And the only thing he’s delivered is confusion—undermining allies, snubbing Zelensky, and allowing Russia to frame the war on its terms.
Zelensky did what Trump asked. He froze offensive operations and re-engaged through U.S. intermediaries. In return, Russia bombed Zelensky’s hometown. Trump, meanwhile, turned inward—ranting online, recycling false claims that the war never would have happened on his watch, and again blaming Zelensky for a war “that should have never been allowed to start.”
In an Oval Office exchange that has since become symbolic, Vice President JD Vance pressed Zelensky on his refusal to offer more concessions. Zelensky didn’t raise his voice. He simply reminded Vance that Putin had violated every ceasefire, including during Trump’s first term. “What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about?” he asked.
The failed diplomacy since the Trump-lauded phone call with Putin has made clear what should have been obvious all along: Putin has no interest in ending the war. His demands—Ukraine disarmed, Western aid cut, territorial losses accepted—are not terms for negotiation. They are preconditions for subjugation.
European allies know this. So does the Pentagon. The only person pretending otherwise is Trump.
Even his allies are running out of ways to spin it. Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, was quoted floating a Berlin-style partition—Russia in the east, NATO in the west. He later backpedaled, claiming he was misquoted. But the message to Moscow was clear: Trump’s team is open to freezing the war on Russian terms—and blaming Ukraine for the impasse.
Trump has shown more interest in Ukraine’s assets than its autonomy. His proposals to backcharge Kyiv for past military assistance or demand concessions in exchange for future support reflect a worldview in which sovereignty is transactional and democracy negotiable. Putin understands that. So do U.S. allies. The only question is whether Trump’s base—or his inner circle—will ever admit it.
This past month, Trump has been slow-walked by Putin, humiliated in public, and forced to watch as the “ceasefire” he praised became a platform for renewed Russian violence. And still, he won’t change course.
To admit failure would require Trump to confront something he can’t: that Putin is not his partner, not his equal, and certainly not under his control.
This is the cost of governing by projection—of believing your own myths long after they’ve expired. For Trump, the illusion persists. But outside the fantasy, the war grinds on, Ukrainians bury their dead, and Putin moves the line forward—one missile at a time.
Even Trump’s own Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, now says he’ll know “in a matter of weeks, not months” whether Putin is serious about peace. It’s a diplomatic way of admitting what the past 30 days have already revealed: Trump has no leverage, no plan, and no idea how badly he’s being played.
The ceasefire is over. The charade should be, too.
Brian O’Neill, a retired senior executive from the CIA and National Counterterrorism Center, is an instructor on strategic intelligence at Georgia Tech.
The smaller the brain (or other organ), the more embedded the insecurity, and the larger the stubbornness of ego.
With trump, who is certainly the most ignorant man ever to hold the presidency, and likely the stupidest, that ego grows and is reinforced with every capitulation by an institution or individual. Whether a fundamentally decent Democratic governor like Gretchen Whitmer, a corrupt Supreme Court, or a pathological billionaire like Jeff Bezos, bending the knee in supplication does no good to the supplicant but worlds of harm to the millions the tyrant can hurt.
That's why I hold every one of the capitulants -- Bezos & Zuckerberg, U of California and Columbia (my alma mater), MSNBC's Morning Joe or CNN/HBO's Bill Maher -- equally guilty of contributing to the neo-nazi takeover of the United States by, literally, the forces of evil.
It's my fondest dream to see the entire administration--from Stephen "Goebbels" Miller to Kristi "Irma Grese" Noem, from Pam Bondi to JD Vance--follow in the footsteps of the Ceaucescus, Muammar Khaddafi, and Saddam Hussein . . . right up the steps to the gibbets.
And the entire world is getting a front row seat seeing how stupid Trump really is -- a total idiot.