Voters Reject the GOP’s Chaos, Corruption, and Rising Costs
Trump and his merry band of MAGA Republicans are underwater in districts across the country.
By Brooke Butler
Voters in Michigan’s 35th Senate District sent a clear message earlier this month: They are tired of the chaos, corruption, and rising costs happening under Donald Trump and his Republican Party. Chederick Green, the Democratic nominee, outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin by 19 points in a swing seat — the kind of district we need to win to take back the majority. Being from the Midwest, I know first-hand the importance of building back Democratic support in former “blue wall” states; Democrats’ path to a House Majority runs through Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and my home state, Ohio.
Voters in America’s heartland are not the only ones souring on Republicans’ disastrous agenda; this spring, voters in Florida’s 87th House District — which includes Mar-a-Lago — flipped a Trump +11 district blue. In special elections across the country, Democrats are running laps around Republicans, showing that they can compete in politically ‘tough’ districts across the country. Historical trends and candidate quality validate this belief.
To be clear: Special elections are special. But Democrats have overperformed in nearly all of the more than 200 special elections since January 2025, proving that voters disapprove of Republicans’ disastrous agenda and are making their voices heard at the ballot box.
We are following these results closely because special election overperformance average in midterm elections since 2018 tracked closely to the final House election results. Over the past two years, Democrats have been overperforming in special elections by almost 13 percent. If history holds, supposedly “safe” seats, including MN-01 (R +12), OH-07 (R +11.0), and AZ-02 (R +15.0), will be competitive, despite political pundits saying otherwise. Just look back to the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey governors’ races, where our candidates, laser-focused on lowering costs, overperformed and carried all of our in-play districts in those states.
Though trends are important and point to Democrats having an advantage, candidate quality is key, and our real edge is the quality of candidates we have running across the map.
Democrats know we need candidates who can articulate a clear contrast between their forward-looking vision for the country and the trail of broken promises left by the Republicans they are facing. Our incumbents are on the front line of defense against extremists who will back the reckless policies that have driven up gas and grocery prices. Elected leaders like Marcy Kaptur, a Toledo native who has beaten back every rigged district Republicans have thrown at her, know their districts and take that fight to Congress every day. And when they are reelected, Democrats protect and expand access to healthcare, defend our democracy, and lower costs by holding corporate price-gougers accountable.
And we don’t just have stellar members of Congress to protect. We have been intentional this cycle in recruiting candidates who truly fit the district they hope to represent –we have faith leaders, farmers, local law enforcement, union members and leaders, and veterans who are seeking to flip Republican-held seats blue across the map. Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer running in NC-11, exemplifies a candidate who has a unique connection to the district. When Hurricane Helene decimated Western North Carolina, Ager opened his home and donated food from his farm to North Carolinians who needed help. His opponent, Chuck Edwards, was nowhere to be found.
Even as we are confident in our path to taking back the House, we are not taking any vote for granted. We started communicating directly to voters of color in May 2025, and the DCCC is making historic investments to engage with constituencies across America, including a dedicated program focused on engaging rural voters across our map and a first-of-its-kind rural engagement ad campaign highlighting Iowa Republicans’ votes to gut Medicaid and defund rural hospitals.
Trump and his merry band of MAGA Republicans are underwater in districts across the country — rural, urban, and suburban — for their failed economic agenda. Democrats are offering voters a forward-looking alternative with candidates who understand the challenges facing their districts, are driven to public service, and are laser-focused on addressing the kitchen table issues voters care about most.
Brooke Butler is national political director of the DCCC.