What ‘deadline’?

Trump is flailing, and Iranians know it

The “deadline” for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its power plants works like Donald Trump’s “concept of a plan” on healthcare: it’s always two weeks away. Trump surprised no one with his decision Friday to extend the deadline (the second such postponement) until April 6. When that date arrives, Trump almost certainly will punt again. His ever-moving deadline strategy (on healthcare, tariffs, war, etc.) has become his predictable fallback when a pressure tactic (e.g., threats to bomb Iranian power plants or impose tariffs) proves impossible, too expensive, or just pointless.

The New York Times reported that the excuse Trump gave this time was “what he claimed was progress in talks to end the war.” There is no evidence that “talks,” direct or otherwise, have progressed. Savvy observers, including traders on U.S. markets, which reached new lows, rolled their eyes. Trump’s declaration that Iran is “begging” for a deal had all the telltale signs of projection. Trump’s deployment of ground troops — without congressional authorization or public support — suggests “talks” are not progressing much, if at all.

The Iranians understand Trump much better than anyone in the Trump regime (devoid of any Iranian experts) understands them. For decades, Iran has prepared meticulously for what to do if a U.S. president was daft enough to attack: Batten down the hatches, close the Strait of Hormuz, and fire away at Israel and the Gulf allies. Only an ignorant narcissist like Trump could be so willfully blind and ignorant enough to imagine he could wipe out an Iranian regime — ensconced for 47 years in regional warfare — with a few weeks of bombing.

Now, the Iranians can see that Trump is desperate to end the war quickly. (They know enough that Trump’s lie that he “doesn’t care” if a deal is reached actually means he ‘really, really wants a deal.’ The Iranians are watching U.S. financial markets, oil prices, and even Trump’s approval polls. They follow U.S. media reports on rumbling discontent in the MAGA movement. They therefore reasonably can conclude that Trump can be snookered into a deal remarkably accommodating to Iran.

Moreover, the Iranians may be in a stronger position than they would have been under prior U.S. presidents, thanks to asymmetric warfare (e.g., drones, cheaper missiles) that can readily inflict damage, depleting the defenses of more expensive interceptors.

Evidence abounds that Israel and the U.S. are swiftly depleting their supply of interceptors. It’s a matter of math: Iranian drones can be quickly and cheaply replaced; their opponents’ defenses are extremely expensive and limited in number. Israel has already begun to ration interceptors, leading to more direct hits on Israeli towns. On the U.S. side, the “military has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, burning through the precision weapons at a rate that has alarmed some Pentagon officials and prompted internal discussions about how to make more available,” The Washington Post reports. The U.S. military is scrambling to find Tomahawks from other hot spots. This is what happens when impulsive, ignorant men — intoxicated with blowing things up — utterly bungle a war. “The dilemma has laid bare broader concerns in both the Pentagon and Congress about the Trump administration’s war in Iran, its shifting explanations for why the conflict is necessary, and the risks a shortage could pose to the United States as it balances the potential for future conflict in other parts of the world.”

In addition, Israel is coming up against manpower limitations. The Jerusalem Post reports:

The IDF could soon collapse if there is no solution to the shortage of manpower, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir warned in remarks during a security cabinet meeting held on Wednesday.

“I am raising 10 red flags before the IDF collapses into itself,” Zamir said during the cabinet meeting…. IDF sources also told the Post that there is tremendous concern due to the severe manpower shortage, especially amid the ongoing war.

After 2 ½ years of wars on multiple fronts and the Haredi conscription issue unresolved (i.e., approximately 66,000 ultra-religious men claim exemption from service), the IDF’s chief of staff’s warning spurred opposition parties to accuse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of ignoring a looming disaster (a reference to the October 7 debacle) that could amount to “a major security crisis in the country.”

Thus, Trump is under the gun to end his misbegotten war — not only to stave off public anger over gas prices, but to stop the ticking clock counting down to the point at which Iran can penetrate defenses and inflict substantial damage and casualties on depleted U.S. and Israeli forces and munitions. In other words, time is on Iran’s side.

In addition to the limitation on the U.S. and Israel’s ability to wage war indefinitely, another factor may convince the Iranians to hold out for a very favorable deal: Trump’s ability to convince himself that an embarrassing failure is actually a roaring success. Self-delusion makes him an easy target for a lopsided deal when he hungers for the war’s end.

Trump’s predilection for self-deception may enable Iran to pull off a diplomatic coup that offers him empty, unenforceable promises (e.g., Iran won’t export terrorism, Iran won’t build a bomb) in exchange for very tangible benefits (e.g., no Israeli or Gulf attack, lifting of sanctions). Trump will trumpet Iran’s empty words (e.g., it has always denied it was building a bomb) without acknowledging that the war achieved very little at a huge cost.

Certainly, Iran has incentives to end the war. Its devastating domestic damage greatly worsens its pre-existing infrastructure problems (like insufficient water to sustain the population). The regime remains, but it is shaken and diminished. And although widespread domestic discontent may have gone to ground during the fighting, it remains a potent threat. Iran, therefore, cannot be entirely intransigent; it too wants to move on (if only to rebuild and sprint to the development of a bomb).

In sum, Trump did not get regime change or an unconditional surrender. His lack of strategy gave Iran advantages (e.g., control of the Strait of Hormuz, asymmetric missile/drone capacity) that neither he nor his yes men anticipated. He therefore flails about, desperately trying to end this debacle without total humiliation. Thanks to the considerable leverage Trump’s blunders have given them, the Iranians surely expect to avoid Trump’s most draconian demands. They want the war to end, but not at any price.

If only the U.S. had competent negotiators and a sane president, a deal might be reached soon. We don’t. Tragically, more lives will be lost, billions more spent before the war’s end.