I don’t get why the following isn’t a good argument for the effort to re-open the government. I don’t know who wrote this. But Please both comment but also let me know if you know who authored this.
"It looks like a key group of Senate Democrats are closing a deal to end the shutdown in return for an agreement from Majority Leader Thune to hold a vote on extending the ACA expanded subsidies in December.
At first glance, this may provoke a "Hunh? What are they thinking?"
But whenever the House or Senate Democrats do anything that doesn't look quite right to me, I dig deeper to figure out the reason for it. Because I don't automatically assume that the Dems are weak or complicit or stupid. I figure there's something deeper at play - and more often than not, I'm right.
And it looks like they could be the case here
Some folks are already melting down and accusing the Dems of caving because they say they get nothing out of a deal that includes
"Everyone knows the vote will fail, so they get nothing!!! Dems caved again!"
But wait - let's do a deeper dive. You will see that that getting that agreement is a brilliant strategic move, even if the vote fails.
Consider:
1. The ACA enhanced subsidies are set to automatically sunset in December if no Congressional action is taken to extend them. If there is no deal before then, they just go away on their own.
2. There was no way in hell the Republicans were going to agree to extend the subsidies, no matter how firmly the Democrats held their ground.
3. If the Democrats insisted on keeping the government closed in order to protect the subsidies, at the end of December, the subsidies would have gone away, the Dems would have gotten nothing, and people would have suffered an extended shutdown without getting anything in return.
And this would have happened without the Republicans having to do anything and bearing no responsibility for the subdidies' disappearance.
4. When the subsidies disappeared in December, people who are affected would have blamed the Democrats, not the Republicans.
5. By exacting an agreement from Thune for a vote to extend the subsidies, the Democrats are now forcing the Republicans to AFFIRMATIVELY end the subsidies rather than just letting them die a natural death. Every Republican will have to go on record, while every Democrat can be on record voting "YES."
6. While it is possible that every Republican will vote no, it is possible that the Dems could peel off enough Republicans to vote to extend the subsidies. It would only take a couple and if they put the pressure on over the next few weeks, that could actually happen.
7. If the Democrats can get enough Republicans votes to save the subsidies, that will be a huge win.
8. If the Republicans stand firm and vote no, THEY will own the expiration of the subsidies, not the Democrats.
The bottom line is that the subsidies were going to end in December, no matter what the Dems did. But now, if this deal goes through, if they do end, it will be because the Republicans voted not to extend them, not because they quietly went away.
And if they can get enough Republicans on board - which is more possible than it was even just a week ago - they will save the subsidies
The vote will ensure that either the subsidies are extended or the Republicans' fingerprints are all over the expiration - neither of which could happen without holding a vote.
So, I think we need to back off of the condemnation and attacks and shift our focus toward what we can do to help the Democrats get the Republican votes they need to extend the ACA enhanced subsidies.
Of course, I could be completely wrong in my analysis. I don't yet know what the underlying reasons are or the ramifications will be.
But drawing the conclusion that the Democrats are operating with a smart strategy is far more logical than assuming they are clueless traitors.
I have more than enough reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.
I think we all should."
Before going ballistic about the reopening you may want to consider this. Remember ... deeeeeeeeeeep breaths..
I don't think Thune will have any such vote in December. Bad faith is a MAGA tenet. Look at the lengthy paid vacation House Republicans got so Johnson didn't have to swear in a Democratic Representative who would vote to release all the Epstein files, and also so the House didn't need to negotiate a potential compromise from the Senate.
I fully expect Trump to issue his marching orders to Thune and Johnson: Do not even consider extending the ACA subsidies. Thune and Johnson will fall all over themselves getting in line. They will find an excuse why the extensions cannot be considered *at this time*. I feel fairly certain they will not be considered before the Democrats take over House and Senate. Without a Democratic super majority in the Senate, the extensions will be DOA, unless they can be included in a Reconciliation bill. Hmmm...! A Reconciliation bill to claw back the ridiculous and budget busting tax cuts for the wealthy -- and to restore the ACA subsidies. It's worth thinking about and fighting for!
You are too kind, this argument given above is very weak.
For one thing, the Senate was in fact already discussing a subsidy extension in September...the Dems fight (supposedly) was to add the extension into the resolution, not a pinky swear the Senate would have a vote...and as you correctly say, there is zero reason to trust the GOP on this.
..and not just that , but there is barely more than a zero chance the House will have any vote at all. Johnson is quite adept and tabling and burying votes on issues that might hurt the GOP .This won't be any different.
This idea that the GOP will 'own this' if they don't approve the subsidies assumes people will be voting on this issue in a year after a million other outrages, and doesn't take into account that the damage will be done in the meantime..
But more than that, and entirely unaddressed in this argument above, is that the white hot anger from across the spectrum of Dem voters will do far more to take the wind out of Democratic voter turnout and enthusiasm that any perceived 'own' by the GOP of just one more outrage among many...
Seeing the Dems capitulate, yet again, is far worse for the Party than some vague perceived idea that the GOP will eventually pay for..pay for what? Getting what they have been offering throughout the shutdown? Since day 1, GOP leaders have said they would discuss subsidies once the government was opened, exactly what is (maybe) happening now...
The argument doesn't mention that in the end, the Dems caused suffering for no reason at all (they might keep claiming otherwise, but this action has nullified that argument), other than this incredibly weak tea argument about getting a 'promise' for a vote that will likely fail if it happens at all..there are a few other relatively small Dem additions to the resolution, that will also likely just be ignored by the GOP... The GOP will now say all the suffering was the Dem’s fault and was totally unnecessary, since in the end the agreement is pretty much what they proposed over a month ago....
One thing that definitely was accomplished is the Democratic leadership in the Senate proved again they have no stomach for a fight, that their tough words and meaningless, and that the GOP never has to even pretend to negotiate with Dems over future budgets, or anything else. This is Schumer saying 'they will screw up' all over again..or even Carville's ‘just play dead' advice.... to do this right when the Dems had so much momentum is all the more galling...now it looks like they were just waiting for Election Day to pass....
The idea posted above that this was a 'brilliant strategic move' is just bafflingly ridiculous. a 'brilliant strategic move' that the GOP is jubilant about, and that has enraged virtually the entire democratic voting base ...
I disagree with Rubin on some issue but she is 100% right on point here.
(ps- everyone hanging their hats on the Epstein files, like this will finally be The Big Thing that topples Trump, are dreaming..those women deserve justice, but to think the GOP will turn against Trump, after all he had already done, is just about laughable)
I agree. This deal isn’t a disaster. It gives Dems the high ground and will force Republicans to actively vote against affordable healthcare. It is easy to sit back comfortably and talk about sacrifices, but then again, I am not a single mother wondering how she is going to feed her kids without SNAP. Or a federal worker going without a paycheck.
It’s not that an off-ramp wasn’t needed. And it’s not like rank and file Democrats didn’t realize things were going nowhere.
But-
The way this was done was demoralizing and damaging to unity. Less than a week after a blue-wave election filled everyone’s sails, these clowns head to wind and luff the sails.
It was ham-handed, their communication sucked and left the clear impression they were caving. And most of the base is smart enough to recognize when they are being manipulated. It looks like a shit sandwich and people don’t like being told how good the shit sandwich is.
They could have sold it better. The could have said- we recognize that this is getting nowhere, so we are extending another 60 days. And if the Republicans don’t restore the ACA tax credits we will keep repeating short extensions and shut down fights until the 2026 election or until the Republicans restore the ACA tax credits, whichever comes first.
But these Senators don’t know how to use the contemporary communication tools available, they didn’t talk to anyone to prepare them for what they were doing, and they let Angus King run around saying things like “standing up to Trump wasn’t working”. That just enrages the base. And nobody believes that the senate minority party whip would be involved in this without Chuck Schumer’s tacit approval and oversight. So this just looks like another Chuck Schumer shitshow- which it is.
They could have spun this as a jujitsu move, pivoting to turn your opponent’s power against themselves. Instead, you have the energy sucked out of the base, and late night comedians widely mocking the fecklessness of Democrats. And that’s why I am so pissed off about this “deal” and why I’ve got so much company
Looks more like an unplanned jibe to me. Swing that boom and throw everyone off. It’s like with all their vaunted experience and seniority they never bothered to learn anything practical.
For those who are demonstratable faithless, when one of your tools is "Claw back," you can sign, say, and do anything and still get what you want. It's like installing systematic policy out of the "Lucy and the Football" playbook. (Or like expecting to get your money back after you have left the casino, or the grocery store, for that matter.)
I don't see the explanations and prediction points here at all. And now the whole thing has gotten so complex, "regular persons" get lost at the bakery. They just keep "Neville Chamberlain-ing" theg
Also, the (now called MAGA) Republicans are in the business--NOT of raising health insurance prices, but of telling the American people IN DEED that we all need to just accept that we are priced out of getting health care at all. Period. Here's what they forget:
OF, FOR, AND By the People. Again, FOR the People.
All I see is just another version of Neville Chamberlain, triumphantly getting off the plane and waving that paper signed by Adolph Hitler in the air. Look at the faces of Russell Vought and Stephen Miller--
I see nothing but contempt and hatefulness in these and others who are presently holding the reins of power now, and there is NOTHING they won't do or say to feed the beast.
I agree about the Democrats failure to communicate with the public. Most people don't know who is responsible for their ACA health insurance premiums becoming completely unaffordable.
Graham, you are wrong in almost everything you say. In a few days, when the smoke has cleared, you will be able to learn from your mistakes in this posting. Unfortunately, when liberals lose an argument, they often get outraged and stay home. Then they get Trump as president, as happened in 2016. Or, in olden times, Nixon.
You can ignore that reponse ..you are on point...and so is Jennifer Rubin, as well as the million other commentators out there, spanning the entire ideological spectrum of democratic Party supporters.
Oh, sure. It’s just a matter of ‘messaging’. Nope. This is an actual case of doing something stupid and then whining about it to try to justify your actions. ‘Not working’?? According to WHO? The all-powerful all-seeing senate gawds? We won everything and they just threw us under the bus. Give me a break. These people are so out of touch they are living in the century before the last one.
I really appreciate this analysis of the situation. I am an “outraged” progressive. This felt like a kick in the teeth after delivering an historic Blue Wave election. I hope the thinking was strategic and crafted to correctly put the responsibility for the healthcare increases on the republicans AND get the Epstien Files released. If this comes to pass, our anger will quell.
While I certainly understand all the angst, I'm inclined to agree with you here. The agreement puts health care front and center and will force Republicans to take a stand if they actually schedule a vote as promised. And if they do not, the CR expires at the end of January and we start the shutdown clock again - this time with proof Republican "promises" cannot be trusted and with Agriculture fully funded through the end of FY26 so SNAP recipients cannot be held hostage. Again, while I understand the angst I'm not sure I see much of a downside when I think about it.
“ - this time with proof Republican "promises" cannot be trusted and with Agriculture fully funded through the end of FY26 so SNAP recipients cannot be held hostage”
I agree about the ‘promises’; I am not certain about agriculture being fully funded due to Donald Trump. He routinely disregards congressional funding appropriations if it is in his interest to do so. SNAP recipients can still be hostages if he wants them to be, regardless of what Congress says.
Despite the furious rhetoric emanating from so many, it seems many balls are now in place that don't lend themselves to easily predicted outcomes or snap judgements (pun intended). A non-scripted event once more requires new tactics involving a mixture of both poker and chess.
The GOP is in a terrible position. They've not really "won" anything -- except to go on record as agreeing to Trump's extreme cruelty for the sake of cruelty (if they vote to actively remove ACA subsidies, apart from the Big Ugly Bill that was tied beforehand). What principle or policy is at stake here, other than refusing to feed people, to defend affordable healthcare? Not exactly a crowd-pleaser, to put it mildly.
And contrary to the wishes of Speaker Bobblehead, who was counting on doing nothing at all, while hiding, the House will re-open. A discharge petition to open the Epstein Files will be filed, and will hurt both him and MAGA. It forces them all back to an issue and a dialogue they have absolutely no interest in having.
In the short-run -- a tactical defeat, maybe, yet SNAP benefits do get extended another year, air controllers and tens of thousands of others won't get fired, and will get repaid. For the millions affected by the shutdown, for the country -- those aren't trivial things.
In the longer run, I wouldn't want to be running on any Republican record of "achievement" next year. Current events and the stars are both moving against me. And the country has the opportunity to revisit all of this again at the end of January. Lucky us.
“ yet SNAP benefits do get extended another year, air controllers and tens of thousands of others won't get fired, and will get repaid.”
The above is only true if Donald Trump makes it be true. If he decides that he wants to have SNAP hostages, then funding will be cut regardless of what Congress says. If he and Russell Vaught want to not rehire and not repay people, then they will not be, and as long as Donald Trump has his MAGA followers to intimidate Congress members, Congress will continue to not matter. Donald Trump is the wild card in all of this.
Great assessment! As Kenny Rogers says "you have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them". The Democrats are in the minority but still managed to bloody the Republicans' nose. Thune will either put the ACA subsidy extension up for a vote and expose vulnerable Republicans or choose to renege on his promise and confirm Republican dishonesty. It's a win/win for the Democrats and a huge loss for the Republicans. Also, Grivajlo will now be seated and will force the Epstein file release. The Democrats baited the trap and the Republicans took the bait.
Jon S YOU are correct and thank you for your comment. I don’t like what the 8 Senators did but I’m not “in the room” where they hash these decisions out, but they did what they thought was best. Sen. Durbin has been around a long time and I think he has the experience/judgment as to why he made his decision in this way. Sen. Kaine has some 900,000 federal employees in his state—his vote was for them, not for him. The bitching and blaming these Senators is misdirected—this is exactly what the repugnantcans want Democrats to do and apparently they have succeeded—don’t fall for it🤬
I tend to agree with you. The shutdown position was not successful; some may say it WOULD BE in the future, but I would point out it was turning out to be a Pyrrhic victory. I think it wise that Dems could live to fight another day--with the midterms being the ultimate victory (and no Dems in their right minds will be "weak" or "cowardly" or whatever in regard to that election, I think). So buck up everyone.
I read this article and thought it was an interesting concept. Similar to what you're saying here. I copied and pasted below.
Republicans warned they've trapped themselves 'in a box' with a vote promise on the ACA. Story by Tom Boggioni.
Republicans may have won the battle over the government shutdown after a handful of Democrats and one independent caved because they thought they couldn’t outlast Donald Trump, but they now face losing the war over the Affordable Care Act.
That is the opinion of GOP political strategist Susen Del Percio, who told an MSNBC host that the Republican Party is now trapped by its promise to hold a vote on the ACA, also known as Obamacare, which has the potential to be a loser for them, no matter how the vote turns out.
Speaking with host Anna Cabrera, Del Percio said she was surprised that the eight lawmakers rolled over, but that she also thinks the GOP didn’t get a win they can cash in on — and they know it.
“Susan, what about Republicans?” the MSNBC host prompted her guest. “I mean, what did they get out of all of this? Do they have anything, any win to really point to?”
“They don't have a win,” Del Percio shot back. “And the Democrats — it just surprises me that they couldn't take the win, the win last week that they had at the election box.”
“Like that was big and they could have owned it,” she added. “They could have done the shutdown even towards the end of last week and said, ‘Win, win, win, and we're forcing the Republicans to take a vote on health care subsidies — that is huge.”
“And that's what the Republicans have been afraid of all along, is this vote,” she elaborated. “They're going to have to take in the Senate by, I think, the second week of December. Will they support those subsidies to the Affordable Healthcare Act from expiring at the end of December? That's going to put them in a box.”
“So, if they vote yes, then the Democrats [can] say ‘We won, we pushed it, we got it.’ And if they vote no, they have a great election issue come 2026. So, I think that the Republicans are more or less scratching their heads, saying, ‘Why aren't the Democrats, why are they not taking this as a big win?’ And it's just more reflective of the intra-party fighting in the Democratic Party,” she concluded.
Epstein Alleged in Emails That Trump Knew of His Conduct
In a message obtained by Congress, the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein wrote that Donald Trump spent hours at his house with one of Mr. Epstein’s victims.
replying to Jon Saxton- I don't think this situation is as obvious as the talking heads make it seem, that includes Dem leaders, not just journalists. I saw Tim Kaine last night explaining why he voted the way he did, and his reasons made sense to me. One thing that no one has talked about that I have heard is air traffic etc. There is NO DOUBT whatsoever in my mind that Sean Duffy is and has been playing MAGA politics with flight cancellations, closing air space, etc. It was going to only get worse. Full Disclosure-my wife is out of the country and returns on 12/22. I certainly wanted the shutdown ended simply so she could be home for Xmas. I just watched Chris Hayes slamming the "cave", and he didn't even mention some of the thoughtful reasons Tim Kaine pointed out that led to his vote. It is 100% true that the Rs were never going to agree to the ACA subsidy extension, not ever. Will Thune allow a vote? I hope so, and if he waffles he should be exiled to some s-hole country forever. The vote will not get any result, but since it is public, it needs to happen. What about the resumption of SNAP payments? Does that not matter? Not a word about that, just endless outrage. This too will pass, and in the end the battle lines that are drawn (S. Stills reference) have not changed. You have intransigent Rs who would rather die than let regular folks have affordable health care, and you have the Ds who don't have the votes to extend the subsidies for the ACA. To me this is just how it is, and the only remedy is to fight the MAGA scammers in court for all election interference, rally the votes once again, and take back the House next year. Donnie D. (for that memory issue) is weak as all get out, he either doesn't realize how preposterous his lies about groceries etc. are, or he is beyond redemption as a serial liar. Soybean prices are still in the tank, below the cost of production, a few farmers might start to rethink their automatic support of our MAGA wannabe dictator.
Regarding #5, the Democrats cannot force Thune to call a vote. You really think Thune will cross Trump by holding a vote. Hence goodbye to the subsidies without Republicans going on record.
I think you are completely forgetting that the House must pass the ACA extension bill as well and Trump must sign it. I believe, after seeing Johnson’s utter depravity in shutting the House down for two months, if he thought he had too many wavering R votes on it, he would refuse to allow a vote, adjourning the House if necessary. And then, of course, there’s the perpetual problem of Trump …
In a sane world, this would be the case, Jon. But we have seen over and over again that if the Felon-in-Chief goaded by Miller and Vought declares "This shall not be", the MAGAs fall down on their bended knees and give homage to his wishes. Let's hope that some of them may have developed a conscience and vote for the people.
I couldn't agree more! It takes cool heads like yours for us to win elections and be in a position to move our agenda for the American people forward toward a more equitable future.
Schumer had the best proposal for ACA and the republicans turned it down. Schumer gave them an off ramp. The legislature needs to fix ACA and stop making it a way for insurance companies to profit. But they can't do that while people are suffering. Extend and fix should be what is going to happen.
While they are at it. Fix medicare and stop paying the amount of money they are giving to insurance companies for Advantage. Yes, you the tax payer are paying $13,000 per Advantage enrollees. That is why Advantage gives you free dental, free eye, free hearing aids and in some cases even send you a check monthly. Money could be saved here or extend these benefits to all medicare enrollees not just for Advantage.
As a long time health policy wonk and corporate strategy consultant I can say very confidently that all models for healthcare delivery/ payment have benefits and drawbacks. That includes
“Medicare for All. “
It all depends on whether you can live with the devil you know or want to trade out for a completely different set of problems. There are no magic bullets.
You're right there are no magic bullets, but I fail to see how continuing the status quo addresses the problem at all. This is a perpetual conundrum in American politics, and no amount of doing nothing different will get us any closer to a solution. We have the ACA no matter how much we don't like it. Without it we have little to no control over our own healthcare when our employers don't provide a plan. Medicare, for all its faults, works.
Any system will work if it is sufficiently funded, coordinated well, and astutely managed. We have 200+ “real world” experiments running at all times all over the world on different ways to fund and deliver health care to a population. Those truisms emerge consistently.
I also happen to be a Medicare beneficiary and the depending on whether you are in Medicare Advantage or traditional Medicare, the program is no better than marginally successful at any of those three. I agree that I’d prefer it to trying to purchase a policy on the individual market (assuming I could find a carrier to sell me one at any price), but it’s not inexpensive for anyone, there is little to no coordination, and program oversight is limited. The program as it currently exists is most definitely not even a marginally acceptable base upon which to build a national health care program.
Again, I agree. The in ACA is government sponsored private insurance. But we don't have anything else available. I remember trying to get a national health plan as long ago as the Clintons, and we still haven't managed to come up with a solution. Damning what we have seems Republicanesque. What do you suggest as a useful model?
We are amazing insular in the country. We seem to assume that we’re the only nation on earth dealing with the problem when in fact it’s a thorny issue everywhere. That’s due in no small part to the fact that demand for health care will always outstrip the available funding unless that demand is constrained in some way. How you constrain it turns out to be the tough part.
Nations that do it best usually rely on hybrid systems which involve private insurers operating under lots of legal guard rails and close government oversight. They also make sure that everybody has to have health insurance—no exceptions. The countries people in my (former) line of work normally point to as getting it closest to right are probably France , Germany, and the Netherlands. For people who are true believers in the power of free markets, Switzerland often gets mentioned—although their system tends to be a bit expensive for my taste.
You can do a search on comparative international health care systems and read about how they all work.
Yes, we need fighters. I see Time Kaine as a fighter. And he was one of the 8. I know my view is unpopular but I think if the shut down had gone on and on that the Dems would have been the one to blame. The pendulum would have swung. Right now it is the MAGA/R's that are clearly to blame. I don't believe that the Dems "caved". The yes votes are forcing the House to return and guarenteeing that those furloughed will get their jobs back with pay. Plus the bill funds SNAP for the following year. What we DO need to do is stop fighting each other. Have a CLEAR message of affordability and stick to it. The Healthcare crisis is not going away. It will be front and center again in December and onward.
In short: Tim Kaine showed “courage” because he feared a hypothetical backlash, and your second point is essentially, “Courage—let’s flee, because war never ends.” That’s quite a mentality. If I remember correctly, Tim Kane wanted to be Vice President. Now it’s clearer why we lost.
He is a fighter only when it costs him nothing. Loosing ACA and power overreach are hurting no one. Is that what you are saying? At the end of the day, it seems that Trump reads the mind of those (cowards) democratic elites perfectly.
Well put Penny, you echoed the same things I commented, but more succinctly. I am seeing more and more agreement about the original post that gives a more balanced and less crazy assessment of what just happened and has everyone in a tizzy.
I do not find this issue of The Contrarian helpful at all. It doesn’t help the Dems situation to heap scorn on elected officials because they didn’t vote “correctly”. I live in No Va and I know Kaine voted the way he did because of the huge number of federal employees here who have lost their jobs or been furloughed indefinitely. How much pain do you expect people to tolerate? The Republicans own this shutdown. They also own healthcare. The mid-terms are coming. I would expect less self praise and deeper analysis with less temper tantrums from you.
I used to believe the mid-terms were coming but now I see the ability for people to vote being drained aways so quickly by this criminal crowd, I now have substantial doubts. I may occur but not so that many people will be able to vote, this to me is the biggest battle.
There is an alternative explanation that I have seen, one byTim Kaine of Virginia (a state which houses many federal workers.) That is the 8 are playing chess, not checkers, and this move is strategic. The political gains from the Republican optics of cruelty with healthcare are already there loud and clear; the public has seen clearly what the R's stand for. There is now the opportunity for a vote on the ACA that will again show where every Senator stands, again the R's lose. The Republicans were never going to negotiate and 42 million Americans have no food. After first following the online vitriol and hand-wringing against the 8 Dems, upon thinking about it, I now believe they did the right thing.
An "opportunity for a vote"? Who are you kidding? It will never get out of the Senate. It is dead. And the voters already know why; remember last Tuesday? The Republicans were being held accountable. That was reflected in polls and in the election results.
Millions will lose insurance and every American already knows whose fault that is. SNAP benefit cases were working their way through the court. At very LEAST, these 8 rogue Senators should have awaited the outcome of the court's decision on SNAP. And in the end, it probably won't matter because the orange one has no intention of releasing SNAP benefits. So not only will millions lose insurance, the people already suffering due to lack of SNAP will more than likely continue to suffer. These ridiculous Senators gave away the whole house! What a slap in the face to everyone who has worked so hard to keep up the fight. What an insult to turn around and blame those who are angry for being devisive. No! The division was caused by these 8 capitulating non-visionary traitors. Where were they when unity was needed in the Senate? They went rogue. It's on them.
We need Senators who will fight, not appeasers. And we need a Senate leader who will actually lead.
Bernard, I see you feel passionate about this. Might I suggest that we all are allies and have differences of opinion on how to go about achieving goals. I don't think the Senators are traitors, I think they are making their best judgments about how to go forward. I don't think it helps for us to call folks on the same side names like ridiculous and traitors.
I assume you are replying to me, and obviously you have misunderstood. When I wrote, "an opportunity to vote" I was not referring to the general election. I was replying to the OP, who wrote, "There is now the opportunity for a vote on the ACA." I thought it would be clear from the context of the discussion what I was referring to.
There are times when any group needs cohesion--"all hands on deck". This doesn't discount differences of opinion. Sometimes the greater good calls for a relaxation of one's minority opinion. A small *minority* derailed all the grueling efforts of 7 weeks' work. There need to be consequences. These 8 Senators sold us out. They need to be primaried. Isn't it 'convenient' that some of them are retiring and none are up for re-election next year. Coincidence? I don't think so. And we need new leadership. When one is at war and a few on one's side betrays the efforts of the group, it's called traitorous.
STOP shaming the 8! Courageous Senators!! Smell the roses - House Republicans will NEVER pass health care. They will propose all kinds of non-starters. They tried to repeal it 70 times! And Trump still Moana about McCain! In the meantime, the government was shutdown, causing all kinds of pain. SNAP was out, govt workers not paid, govt contractors will never be paid, parks are closed, flights are cancelled, etc. etc etc. Eventually, Dems would also be blamed for the shutdown. This way, if the Dems can capitalize INSTEAD of fighting amongst ourselves, we’ll be the adults in the room. The key is that we need to make a huge stink and get all over the news when they refuse to even discuss health care in the coming weeks. The decision by the 8 was pragmatic, a realization that Republicans will never discuss health care and this way we can reopen the government and highlight that it’s the Republicans who refuse to provide healthcare and then, just maybe Republicans will be backed into a corner and have to pass healthcare if the uproar is widespread enough when they go home for Thanksgiving. Sad state of affairs for sure, but if Dems play it right we can come out on top.
I have been wondering about this and also getting Rep. Grijalva sworn in. I am also thankful for the enormous back lash on the 8 senators. It sends a powerful message all need to hear about the fight we need, want and expect from our leaders in Congress.
Americans need to get off the couch: Sick-ins, work slow downs, blocking traffic like the French did. If all we do is complain on social media, then we aren't providing our elected representatives, who do not control any branch of government, with the support they need to win. I am doubtful Americans have that muscle in them. For one thing, Trump has everyone afraid of the consequences, because he and MAGA have shown themselves to be cruel and ruthless.
Meanwhile, I read today in the NYT that American executives aren't showing up at COP either. Bunch of cowards! Can't wait for the economic boycott (but it's not enough).
So...why is Contrarian not all over the Nov. 18 day of action?
NYT Today. “The end to this government shutdown does not solve [the Republican] affordability problem,” said Amy Walter, the publisher and editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “A deal that included an extension of the subsidies would actually have helped.”
That vulnerability is clear in the actions of Republicans from states like New Jersey and Virginia, which elected Democratic governors by large margins in last week’s off-year elections.
Representatives Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, two Republicans facing competitive races next year, recently sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson telling him that once the government was reopened, Republicans needed to “immediately turn our focus to the growing crisis of health care affordability and the looming expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act (A.C.A.) premium tax credits.”
Your article is forgetting something that seems to be lost in this discussion. The shutdown is decimating the federal workforce and our most vulnerable population of people who rely on federal programs for food, shelter and energy. We are not your sacrifical lambs to slaughter for the greater good. People are not bargaining chips to be used to get the upper hand in neogiations. Both sides do it and it is morally and ethicially WRONG. I am thankful that 6 people were willing to fall on the sword to stop this nonsense. You want to save the ACA? So do I. Let's call, protest, do sit in's, whatever we need to do... and I don't know maybe win elections? A shutdown was never going to work when the GOP never cared about who it was hurting!
To be a contrarian to the current thinking, I recommend Robert Hubbell today and today's citation of Lawrence O'Donnell's take on the cave by the senate democrats. RH: "The consensus in the Comment section of yesterday’s newsletter was that Lawrence O’Donnell’s commentary on Monday evening helped calm the anger of many readers by contextualizing the difficult job of serving as Minority Leader and emphasizing how long Senator Schumer managed to hold the Democratic Caucus together. The commentary by Lawrence O’Donnell is here: Lawrence: With Trump’s shutdown ending, Dems are closer than ever to forcing Epstein files release."
The only problem is that the MAGA followers won't believe anything bad about Dear Leader. They don't care if Trump shoots someone. Or rapes women. Or demeans handicapped reporters. Or talks about grabbing women by the pussy. NOTHING will shake their devotion. Epstein, Shepstein, it doesn't matter. They will back Trump and forgive whatever he does.
I've been loathe to agree with those who think those eight Senators did the right thing. This morning I read a posting by Rachel Bitecofer which was eye-opening, convincing. And the writing was awesome. I'm not sure those senators were pursuing a noble strategy but I think, now, that the outcome might benefit the Democrats more than a continued shutdown might have.
We need to focus on protecting the election apparatus for 2026. We need to evict the MAGA election deniers from the ranks of poll workers and election certification groups across the country. We need for that election to occur on time and to be free and fair and for absentee ballots to be counted.
Election deniers as poll workers? I am an assistant manager at a precinct; we don't know the political persuasion of our fellow poll workers. But it doesn't matter--there are rules and protocols that everyone follows. Deniers on state boards of elections--that's the problem. They want to make voting as difficult as possible. In Georgia, their ideas are untenable--we poll workers would be working 24-hour shifts.
Agreed, I was thinking about the State Boards. I don't understand how retired people can handle the 14-hour election days as it is: 6 AM to 8 PM here. What do we do if ICE shows up at polling stations and actively detains people waiting in line? With access to voter registration files and driver's license photos, they can target Democrats who show up. It would only take a single election worker to call in a complaint to ICE to set off the interference.
From *On Tyranny; Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century
By Timothy Snyder
These guidelines have been incredibly helpful. Sharing in case readers have not seen them. The book and/or YouTube episodes on each lesson explain each in more detail.
If Jennifer was going to be wrong, I'm glad it is with an issue like this. We will all know soon enough that the Decmocrats have won this contest, though I hate like hell to treat it even verbally as if it were a game. Republicans are taking a lambasting. Why? Suppose we have a building on fire. Democrats are the ones trying to put it out by carrying buckets of water from the river while Republicans are standing on the sidelines refusing to turn on the hoses they have exclusive control over. Finally, the Democrats, exhausted, fall to the ground and surrender. The building continues to burn. What do the Republicans do? Well, we shall see.
The Republicans set the building on fire in the first place, it’s no wonder they don’t want to help put it out. What they will do is ignore their inaction and blame Democrats for not putting the fire out. With better messaging on current social media, etc., the Democrats could well explain why they couldn’t put out that fire and why Republicans can if they wanted to, but they don’t. However, Democrats do not message well.
WOW! Strong words, sounds kinda MAGA like. Found it a bit of a turn off. Nothing like taking a chance on causing more chaos in the party such that a unifying cry.is not possible to maintain unity. Rather than send the energy to getting rid of Shumer and all the candidates you deem fit not to serve., is it possible that these 8 gave the Republicans an off ramp about the ACA? Of course if they choose not to take, well then all is squarely on them. A more unifying message is needed right now if we are going to save Democracy. This way doesn't seem right.
I tend to agree with this. We need to watch out for the "Blue Maga" impulse, an equal but opposite reaction to Red Maga. There is a lot of Blue Maga going on in reaction to the end of the shutdown.
The screaming, the pointing, the outraged stampedes of purity ponies, the instant "we're all doomed, it's all over, folks" analyses--these come straight from the amygdala, and while they make us feel good and righteous, they give us no real insight or path forward.
Addendum: I found the original post! It’s by Stephanie Jones. Here it is. Go give her some love and follows! https://open.substack.com/pub/stephaniejones2/p/the-aca-deal-may-be-smarter-than?r=mrvx1&utm_medium=ios
I don’t get why the following isn’t a good argument for the effort to re-open the government. I don’t know who wrote this. But Please both comment but also let me know if you know who authored this.
"It looks like a key group of Senate Democrats are closing a deal to end the shutdown in return for an agreement from Majority Leader Thune to hold a vote on extending the ACA expanded subsidies in December.
At first glance, this may provoke a "Hunh? What are they thinking?"
But whenever the House or Senate Democrats do anything that doesn't look quite right to me, I dig deeper to figure out the reason for it. Because I don't automatically assume that the Dems are weak or complicit or stupid. I figure there's something deeper at play - and more often than not, I'm right.
And it looks like they could be the case here
Some folks are already melting down and accusing the Dems of caving because they say they get nothing out of a deal that includes
"Everyone knows the vote will fail, so they get nothing!!! Dems caved again!"
But wait - let's do a deeper dive. You will see that that getting that agreement is a brilliant strategic move, even if the vote fails.
Consider:
1. The ACA enhanced subsidies are set to automatically sunset in December if no Congressional action is taken to extend them. If there is no deal before then, they just go away on their own.
2. There was no way in hell the Republicans were going to agree to extend the subsidies, no matter how firmly the Democrats held their ground.
3. If the Democrats insisted on keeping the government closed in order to protect the subsidies, at the end of December, the subsidies would have gone away, the Dems would have gotten nothing, and people would have suffered an extended shutdown without getting anything in return.
And this would have happened without the Republicans having to do anything and bearing no responsibility for the subdidies' disappearance.
4. When the subsidies disappeared in December, people who are affected would have blamed the Democrats, not the Republicans.
5. By exacting an agreement from Thune for a vote to extend the subsidies, the Democrats are now forcing the Republicans to AFFIRMATIVELY end the subsidies rather than just letting them die a natural death. Every Republican will have to go on record, while every Democrat can be on record voting "YES."
6. While it is possible that every Republican will vote no, it is possible that the Dems could peel off enough Republicans to vote to extend the subsidies. It would only take a couple and if they put the pressure on over the next few weeks, that could actually happen.
7. If the Democrats can get enough Republicans votes to save the subsidies, that will be a huge win.
8. If the Republicans stand firm and vote no, THEY will own the expiration of the subsidies, not the Democrats.
The bottom line is that the subsidies were going to end in December, no matter what the Dems did. But now, if this deal goes through, if they do end, it will be because the Republicans voted not to extend them, not because they quietly went away.
And if they can get enough Republicans on board - which is more possible than it was even just a week ago - they will save the subsidies
The vote will ensure that either the subsidies are extended or the Republicans' fingerprints are all over the expiration - neither of which could happen without holding a vote.
So, I think we need to back off of the condemnation and attacks and shift our focus toward what we can do to help the Democrats get the Republican votes they need to extend the ACA enhanced subsidies.
Of course, I could be completely wrong in my analysis. I don't yet know what the underlying reasons are or the ramifications will be.
But drawing the conclusion that the Democrats are operating with a smart strategy is far more logical than assuming they are clueless traitors.
I have more than enough reason to give them the benefit of the doubt.
I think we all should."
Before going ballistic about the reopening you may want to consider this. Remember ... deeeeeeeeeeep breaths..
I don't think Thune will have any such vote in December. Bad faith is a MAGA tenet. Look at the lengthy paid vacation House Republicans got so Johnson didn't have to swear in a Democratic Representative who would vote to release all the Epstein files, and also so the House didn't need to negotiate a potential compromise from the Senate.
I fully expect Trump to issue his marching orders to Thune and Johnson: Do not even consider extending the ACA subsidies. Thune and Johnson will fall all over themselves getting in line. They will find an excuse why the extensions cannot be considered *at this time*. I feel fairly certain they will not be considered before the Democrats take over House and Senate. Without a Democratic super majority in the Senate, the extensions will be DOA, unless they can be included in a Reconciliation bill. Hmmm...! A Reconciliation bill to claw back the ridiculous and budget busting tax cuts for the wealthy -- and to restore the ACA subsidies. It's worth thinking about and fighting for!
Then the end of the subsidies will be the GOP's responsibility.
You are too kind, this argument given above is very weak.
For one thing, the Senate was in fact already discussing a subsidy extension in September...the Dems fight (supposedly) was to add the extension into the resolution, not a pinky swear the Senate would have a vote...and as you correctly say, there is zero reason to trust the GOP on this.
..and not just that , but there is barely more than a zero chance the House will have any vote at all. Johnson is quite adept and tabling and burying votes on issues that might hurt the GOP .This won't be any different.
This idea that the GOP will 'own this' if they don't approve the subsidies assumes people will be voting on this issue in a year after a million other outrages, and doesn't take into account that the damage will be done in the meantime..
But more than that, and entirely unaddressed in this argument above, is that the white hot anger from across the spectrum of Dem voters will do far more to take the wind out of Democratic voter turnout and enthusiasm that any perceived 'own' by the GOP of just one more outrage among many...
Seeing the Dems capitulate, yet again, is far worse for the Party than some vague perceived idea that the GOP will eventually pay for..pay for what? Getting what they have been offering throughout the shutdown? Since day 1, GOP leaders have said they would discuss subsidies once the government was opened, exactly what is (maybe) happening now...
The argument doesn't mention that in the end, the Dems caused suffering for no reason at all (they might keep claiming otherwise, but this action has nullified that argument), other than this incredibly weak tea argument about getting a 'promise' for a vote that will likely fail if it happens at all..there are a few other relatively small Dem additions to the resolution, that will also likely just be ignored by the GOP... The GOP will now say all the suffering was the Dem’s fault and was totally unnecessary, since in the end the agreement is pretty much what they proposed over a month ago....
One thing that definitely was accomplished is the Democratic leadership in the Senate proved again they have no stomach for a fight, that their tough words and meaningless, and that the GOP never has to even pretend to negotiate with Dems over future budgets, or anything else. This is Schumer saying 'they will screw up' all over again..or even Carville's ‘just play dead' advice.... to do this right when the Dems had so much momentum is all the more galling...now it looks like they were just waiting for Election Day to pass....
The idea posted above that this was a 'brilliant strategic move' is just bafflingly ridiculous. a 'brilliant strategic move' that the GOP is jubilant about, and that has enraged virtually the entire democratic voting base ...
I disagree with Rubin on some issue but she is 100% right on point here.
(ps- everyone hanging their hats on the Epstein files, like this will finally be The Big Thing that topples Trump, are dreaming..those women deserve justice, but to think the GOP will turn against Trump, after all he had already done, is just about laughable)
Exactly.
I agree. This deal isn’t a disaster. It gives Dems the high ground and will force Republicans to actively vote against affordable healthcare. It is easy to sit back comfortably and talk about sacrifices, but then again, I am not a single mother wondering how she is going to feed her kids without SNAP. Or a federal worker going without a paycheck.
It appears that DJT and the Rs keep asking the courts to deny SNAP. It's making headlines, and I hope people are paying attention!
It’s not that an off-ramp wasn’t needed. And it’s not like rank and file Democrats didn’t realize things were going nowhere.
But-
The way this was done was demoralizing and damaging to unity. Less than a week after a blue-wave election filled everyone’s sails, these clowns head to wind and luff the sails.
It was ham-handed, their communication sucked and left the clear impression they were caving. And most of the base is smart enough to recognize when they are being manipulated. It looks like a shit sandwich and people don’t like being told how good the shit sandwich is.
They could have sold it better. The could have said- we recognize that this is getting nowhere, so we are extending another 60 days. And if the Republicans don’t restore the ACA tax credits we will keep repeating short extensions and shut down fights until the 2026 election or until the Republicans restore the ACA tax credits, whichever comes first.
But these Senators don’t know how to use the contemporary communication tools available, they didn’t talk to anyone to prepare them for what they were doing, and they let Angus King run around saying things like “standing up to Trump wasn’t working”. That just enrages the base. And nobody believes that the senate minority party whip would be involved in this without Chuck Schumer’s tacit approval and oversight. So this just looks like another Chuck Schumer shitshow- which it is.
They could have spun this as a jujitsu move, pivoting to turn your opponent’s power against themselves. Instead, you have the energy sucked out of the base, and late night comedians widely mocking the fecklessness of Democrats. And that’s why I am so pissed off about this “deal” and why I’ve got so much company
As a sailor I love your analogy that the sails were filled and they headed to wind and luffed the sails. Perfect description!
Changing tack takes planning, timing and a certain amount of skill and they blew it- luffed the sails and stalled
Nautical terms and analogies work really well for explaining the moment
is sinking a nautical term ?
Looks more like an unplanned jibe to me. Swing that boom and throw everyone off. It’s like with all their vaunted experience and seniority they never bothered to learn anything practical.
For those who are demonstratable faithless, when one of your tools is "Claw back," you can sign, say, and do anything and still get what you want. It's like installing systematic policy out of the "Lucy and the Football" playbook. (Or like expecting to get your money back after you have left the casino, or the grocery store, for that matter.)
I don't see the explanations and prediction points here at all. And now the whole thing has gotten so complex, "regular persons" get lost at the bakery. They just keep "Neville Chamberlain-ing" theg
Also, the (now called MAGA) Republicans are in the business--NOT of raising health insurance prices, but of telling the American people IN DEED that we all need to just accept that we are priced out of getting health care at all. Period. Here's what they forget:
OF, FOR, AND By the People. Again, FOR the People.
All I see is just another version of Neville Chamberlain, triumphantly getting off the plane and waving that paper signed by Adolph Hitler in the air. Look at the faces of Russell Vought and Stephen Miller--
I see nothing but contempt and hatefulness in these and others who are presently holding the reins of power now, and there is NOTHING they won't do or say to feed the beast.
You bet! No sailor likes to hear it though!
I agree about the Democrats failure to communicate with the public. Most people don't know who is responsible for their ACA health insurance premiums becoming completely unaffordable.
Graham, you are wrong in almost everything you say. In a few days, when the smoke has cleared, you will be able to learn from your mistakes in this posting. Unfortunately, when liberals lose an argument, they often get outraged and stay home. Then they get Trump as president, as happened in 2016. Or, in olden times, Nixon.
Yeah well- as the Big Lebowski said “Like- that’s just your opinion man!”
Plus- I feel like my read on the situation really ties everything together
You can ignore that reponse ..you are on point...and so is Jennifer Rubin, as well as the million other commentators out there, spanning the entire ideological spectrum of democratic Party supporters.
You nailed it Graham.
Snide little brats can't resist what they think is comeuppance.
Not this time.
Oh, sure. It’s just a matter of ‘messaging’. Nope. This is an actual case of doing something stupid and then whining about it to try to justify your actions. ‘Not working’?? According to WHO? The all-powerful all-seeing senate gawds? We won everything and they just threw us under the bus. Give me a break. These people are so out of touch they are living in the century before the last one.
It's absolutely true that it caught everyone with their pants down.
I really appreciate this analysis of the situation. I am an “outraged” progressive. This felt like a kick in the teeth after delivering an historic Blue Wave election. I hope the thinking was strategic and crafted to correctly put the responsibility for the healthcare increases on the republicans AND get the Epstien Files released. If this comes to pass, our anger will quell.
While I certainly understand all the angst, I'm inclined to agree with you here. The agreement puts health care front and center and will force Republicans to take a stand if they actually schedule a vote as promised. And if they do not, the CR expires at the end of January and we start the shutdown clock again - this time with proof Republican "promises" cannot be trusted and with Agriculture fully funded through the end of FY26 so SNAP recipients cannot be held hostage. Again, while I understand the angst I'm not sure I see much of a downside when I think about it.
“ - this time with proof Republican "promises" cannot be trusted and with Agriculture fully funded through the end of FY26 so SNAP recipients cannot be held hostage”
I agree about the ‘promises’; I am not certain about agriculture being fully funded due to Donald Trump. He routinely disregards congressional funding appropriations if it is in his interest to do so. SNAP recipients can still be hostages if he wants them to be, regardless of what Congress says.
Despite the furious rhetoric emanating from so many, it seems many balls are now in place that don't lend themselves to easily predicted outcomes or snap judgements (pun intended). A non-scripted event once more requires new tactics involving a mixture of both poker and chess.
The GOP is in a terrible position. They've not really "won" anything -- except to go on record as agreeing to Trump's extreme cruelty for the sake of cruelty (if they vote to actively remove ACA subsidies, apart from the Big Ugly Bill that was tied beforehand). What principle or policy is at stake here, other than refusing to feed people, to defend affordable healthcare? Not exactly a crowd-pleaser, to put it mildly.
And contrary to the wishes of Speaker Bobblehead, who was counting on doing nothing at all, while hiding, the House will re-open. A discharge petition to open the Epstein Files will be filed, and will hurt both him and MAGA. It forces them all back to an issue and a dialogue they have absolutely no interest in having.
In the short-run -- a tactical defeat, maybe, yet SNAP benefits do get extended another year, air controllers and tens of thousands of others won't get fired, and will get repaid. For the millions affected by the shutdown, for the country -- those aren't trivial things.
In the longer run, I wouldn't want to be running on any Republican record of "achievement" next year. Current events and the stars are both moving against me. And the country has the opportunity to revisit all of this again at the end of January. Lucky us.
“ yet SNAP benefits do get extended another year, air controllers and tens of thousands of others won't get fired, and will get repaid.”
The above is only true if Donald Trump makes it be true. If he decides that he wants to have SNAP hostages, then funding will be cut regardless of what Congress says. If he and Russell Vaught want to not rehire and not repay people, then they will not be, and as long as Donald Trump has his MAGA followers to intimidate Congress members, Congress will continue to not matter. Donald Trump is the wild card in all of this.
Great assessment! As Kenny Rogers says "you have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them". The Democrats are in the minority but still managed to bloody the Republicans' nose. Thune will either put the ACA subsidy extension up for a vote and expose vulnerable Republicans or choose to renege on his promise and confirm Republican dishonesty. It's a win/win for the Democrats and a huge loss for the Republicans. Also, Grivajlo will now be seated and will force the Epstein file release. The Democrats baited the trap and the Republicans took the bait.
And in that vote the Dems are giving a lot of $$$$ to Repugs.
Buried near the end.
Jon S YOU are correct and thank you for your comment. I don’t like what the 8 Senators did but I’m not “in the room” where they hash these decisions out, but they did what they thought was best. Sen. Durbin has been around a long time and I think he has the experience/judgment as to why he made his decision in this way. Sen. Kaine has some 900,000 federal employees in his state—his vote was for them, not for him. The bitching and blaming these Senators is misdirected—this is exactly what the repugnantcans want Democrats to do and apparently they have succeeded—don’t fall for it🤬
I tend to agree with you. The shutdown position was not successful; some may say it WOULD BE in the future, but I would point out it was turning out to be a Pyrrhic victory. I think it wise that Dems could live to fight another day--with the midterms being the ultimate victory (and no Dems in their right minds will be "weak" or "cowardly" or whatever in regard to that election, I think). So buck up everyone.
Check out Trumpepstein.
I read this article and thought it was an interesting concept. Similar to what you're saying here. I copied and pasted below.
Republicans warned they've trapped themselves 'in a box' with a vote promise on the ACA. Story by Tom Boggioni.
Republicans may have won the battle over the government shutdown after a handful of Democrats and one independent caved because they thought they couldn’t outlast Donald Trump, but they now face losing the war over the Affordable Care Act.
That is the opinion of GOP political strategist Susen Del Percio, who told an MSNBC host that the Republican Party is now trapped by its promise to hold a vote on the ACA, also known as Obamacare, which has the potential to be a loser for them, no matter how the vote turns out.
Speaking with host Anna Cabrera, Del Percio said she was surprised that the eight lawmakers rolled over, but that she also thinks the GOP didn’t get a win they can cash in on — and they know it.
“Susan, what about Republicans?” the MSNBC host prompted her guest. “I mean, what did they get out of all of this? Do they have anything, any win to really point to?”
“They don't have a win,” Del Percio shot back. “And the Democrats — it just surprises me that they couldn't take the win, the win last week that they had at the election box.”
“Like that was big and they could have owned it,” she added. “They could have done the shutdown even towards the end of last week and said, ‘Win, win, win, and we're forcing the Republicans to take a vote on health care subsidies — that is huge.”
“And that's what the Republicans have been afraid of all along, is this vote,” she elaborated. “They're going to have to take in the Senate by, I think, the second week of December. Will they support those subsidies to the Affordable Healthcare Act from expiring at the end of December? That's going to put them in a box.”
“So, if they vote yes, then the Democrats [can] say ‘We won, we pushed it, we got it.’ And if they vote no, they have a great election issue come 2026. So, I think that the Republicans are more or less scratching their heads, saying, ‘Why aren't the Democrats, why are they not taking this as a big win?’ And it's just more reflective of the intra-party fighting in the Democratic Party,” she concluded.
BREAKING NEWS
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Epstein Alleged in Emails That Trump Knew of His Conduct
In a message obtained by Congress, the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein wrote that Donald Trump spent hours at his house with one of Mr. Epstein’s victims.
I just read that article; well well well. This is going to complicate Mr. Johnson‘s life quite a bit, to say nothing of Donald Trump.
replying to Jon Saxton- I don't think this situation is as obvious as the talking heads make it seem, that includes Dem leaders, not just journalists. I saw Tim Kaine last night explaining why he voted the way he did, and his reasons made sense to me. One thing that no one has talked about that I have heard is air traffic etc. There is NO DOUBT whatsoever in my mind that Sean Duffy is and has been playing MAGA politics with flight cancellations, closing air space, etc. It was going to only get worse. Full Disclosure-my wife is out of the country and returns on 12/22. I certainly wanted the shutdown ended simply so she could be home for Xmas. I just watched Chris Hayes slamming the "cave", and he didn't even mention some of the thoughtful reasons Tim Kaine pointed out that led to his vote. It is 100% true that the Rs were never going to agree to the ACA subsidy extension, not ever. Will Thune allow a vote? I hope so, and if he waffles he should be exiled to some s-hole country forever. The vote will not get any result, but since it is public, it needs to happen. What about the resumption of SNAP payments? Does that not matter? Not a word about that, just endless outrage. This too will pass, and in the end the battle lines that are drawn (S. Stills reference) have not changed. You have intransigent Rs who would rather die than let regular folks have affordable health care, and you have the Ds who don't have the votes to extend the subsidies for the ACA. To me this is just how it is, and the only remedy is to fight the MAGA scammers in court for all election interference, rally the votes once again, and take back the House next year. Donnie D. (for that memory issue) is weak as all get out, he either doesn't realize how preposterous his lies about groceries etc. are, or he is beyond redemption as a serial liar. Soybean prices are still in the tank, below the cost of production, a few farmers might start to rethink their automatic support of our MAGA wannabe dictator.
Regarding #5, the Democrats cannot force Thune to call a vote. You really think Thune will cross Trump by holding a vote. Hence goodbye to the subsidies without Republicans going on record.
I think you are completely forgetting that the House must pass the ACA extension bill as well and Trump must sign it. I believe, after seeing Johnson’s utter depravity in shutting the House down for two months, if he thought he had too many wavering R votes on it, he would refuse to allow a vote, adjourning the House if necessary. And then, of course, there’s the perpetual problem of Trump …
In a sane world, this would be the case, Jon. But we have seen over and over again that if the Felon-in-Chief goaded by Miller and Vought declares "This shall not be", the MAGAs fall down on their bended knees and give homage to his wishes. Let's hope that some of them may have developed a conscience and vote for the people.
That's not happening. They don't give a rat's ass about "the people."
When they fall down on bended knee to Trump I don't think its to give homage, I think its something more gross.
I think it is easy to sit back in a warm home with food in the frig and make de
I couldn't agree more! It takes cool heads like yours for us to win elections and be in a position to move our agenda for the American people forward toward a more equitable future.
Schumer had the best proposal for ACA and the republicans turned it down. Schumer gave them an off ramp. The legislature needs to fix ACA and stop making it a way for insurance companies to profit. But they can't do that while people are suffering. Extend and fix should be what is going to happen.
While they are at it. Fix medicare and stop paying the amount of money they are giving to insurance companies for Advantage. Yes, you the tax payer are paying $13,000 per Advantage enrollees. That is why Advantage gives you free dental, free eye, free hearing aids and in some cases even send you a check monthly. Money could be saved here or extend these benefits to all medicare enrollees not just for Advantage.
Medicare for all. It's both the most radical and the most sensible reform for our broken health care system.
As a long time health policy wonk and corporate strategy consultant I can say very confidently that all models for healthcare delivery/ payment have benefits and drawbacks. That includes
“Medicare for All. “
It all depends on whether you can live with the devil you know or want to trade out for a completely different set of problems. There are no magic bullets.
You're right there are no magic bullets, but I fail to see how continuing the status quo addresses the problem at all. This is a perpetual conundrum in American politics, and no amount of doing nothing different will get us any closer to a solution. We have the ACA no matter how much we don't like it. Without it we have little to no control over our own healthcare when our employers don't provide a plan. Medicare, for all its faults, works.
Any system will work if it is sufficiently funded, coordinated well, and astutely managed. We have 200+ “real world” experiments running at all times all over the world on different ways to fund and deliver health care to a population. Those truisms emerge consistently.
I also happen to be a Medicare beneficiary and the depending on whether you are in Medicare Advantage or traditional Medicare, the program is no better than marginally successful at any of those three. I agree that I’d prefer it to trying to purchase a policy on the individual market (assuming I could find a carrier to sell me one at any price), but it’s not inexpensive for anyone, there is little to no coordination, and program oversight is limited. The program as it currently exists is most definitely not even a marginally acceptable base upon which to build a national health care program.
Again, I agree. The in ACA is government sponsored private insurance. But we don't have anything else available. I remember trying to get a national health plan as long ago as the Clintons, and we still haven't managed to come up with a solution. Damning what we have seems Republicanesque. What do you suggest as a useful model?
That's wishful thinking! They won't do that in a million years.
We are amazing insular in the country. We seem to assume that we’re the only nation on earth dealing with the problem when in fact it’s a thorny issue everywhere. That’s due in no small part to the fact that demand for health care will always outstrip the available funding unless that demand is constrained in some way. How you constrain it turns out to be the tough part.
Nations that do it best usually rely on hybrid systems which involve private insurers operating under lots of legal guard rails and close government oversight. They also make sure that everybody has to have health insurance—no exceptions. The countries people in my (former) line of work normally point to as getting it closest to right are probably France , Germany, and the Netherlands. For people who are true believers in the power of free markets, Switzerland often gets mentioned—although their system tends to be a bit expensive for my taste.
You can do a search on comparative international health care systems and read about how they all work.
Yes, we need fighters. I see Time Kaine as a fighter. And he was one of the 8. I know my view is unpopular but I think if the shut down had gone on and on that the Dems would have been the one to blame. The pendulum would have swung. Right now it is the MAGA/R's that are clearly to blame. I don't believe that the Dems "caved". The yes votes are forcing the House to return and guarenteeing that those furloughed will get their jobs back with pay. Plus the bill funds SNAP for the following year. What we DO need to do is stop fighting each other. Have a CLEAR message of affordability and stick to it. The Healthcare crisis is not going away. It will be front and center again in December and onward.
In short: Tim Kaine showed “courage” because he feared a hypothetical backlash, and your second point is essentially, “Courage—let’s flee, because war never ends.” That’s quite a mentality. If I remember correctly, Tim Kane wanted to be Vice President. Now it’s clearer why we lost.
People and communities were hurting because of thr shutdown. Kaine represents a state with a lot of federal employees who support local businesses.
He is a fighter only when it costs him nothing. Loosing ACA and power overreach are hurting no one. Is that what you are saying? At the end of the day, it seems that Trump reads the mind of those (cowards) democratic elites perfectly.
Well put Penny, you echoed the same things I commented, but more succinctly. I am seeing more and more agreement about the original post that gives a more balanced and less crazy assessment of what just happened and has everyone in a tizzy.
I do not find this issue of The Contrarian helpful at all. It doesn’t help the Dems situation to heap scorn on elected officials because they didn’t vote “correctly”. I live in No Va and I know Kaine voted the way he did because of the huge number of federal employees here who have lost their jobs or been furloughed indefinitely. How much pain do you expect people to tolerate? The Republicans own this shutdown. They also own healthcare. The mid-terms are coming. I would expect less self praise and deeper analysis with less temper tantrums from you.
I used to believe the mid-terms were coming but now I see the ability for people to vote being drained aways so quickly by this criminal crowd, I now have substantial doubts. I may occur but not so that many people will be able to vote, this to me is the biggest battle.
I agree that’s a huge problem.
There is an alternative explanation that I have seen, one byTim Kaine of Virginia (a state which houses many federal workers.) That is the 8 are playing chess, not checkers, and this move is strategic. The political gains from the Republican optics of cruelty with healthcare are already there loud and clear; the public has seen clearly what the R's stand for. There is now the opportunity for a vote on the ACA that will again show where every Senator stands, again the R's lose. The Republicans were never going to negotiate and 42 million Americans have no food. After first following the online vitriol and hand-wringing against the 8 Dems, upon thinking about it, I now believe they did the right thing.
An "opportunity for a vote"? Who are you kidding? It will never get out of the Senate. It is dead. And the voters already know why; remember last Tuesday? The Republicans were being held accountable. That was reflected in polls and in the election results.
Millions will lose insurance and every American already knows whose fault that is. SNAP benefit cases were working their way through the court. At very LEAST, these 8 rogue Senators should have awaited the outcome of the court's decision on SNAP. And in the end, it probably won't matter because the orange one has no intention of releasing SNAP benefits. So not only will millions lose insurance, the people already suffering due to lack of SNAP will more than likely continue to suffer. These ridiculous Senators gave away the whole house! What a slap in the face to everyone who has worked so hard to keep up the fight. What an insult to turn around and blame those who are angry for being devisive. No! The division was caused by these 8 capitulating non-visionary traitors. Where were they when unity was needed in the Senate? They went rogue. It's on them.
We need Senators who will fight, not appeasers. And we need a Senate leader who will actually lead.
Bernard, I see you feel passionate about this. Might I suggest that we all are allies and have differences of opinion on how to go about achieving goals. I don't think the Senators are traitors, I think they are making their best judgments about how to go forward. I don't think it helps for us to call folks on the same side names like ridiculous and traitors.
We are allies and we need to start recruiting and vetting candidates for Senate seats that will be open in the next election.
And can we please stop the "there won't be elections" talk? It isn't helpful .
I assume you are replying to me, and obviously you have misunderstood. When I wrote, "an opportunity to vote" I was not referring to the general election. I was replying to the OP, who wrote, "There is now the opportunity for a vote on the ACA." I thought it would be clear from the context of the discussion what I was referring to.
There are times when any group needs cohesion--"all hands on deck". This doesn't discount differences of opinion. Sometimes the greater good calls for a relaxation of one's minority opinion. A small *minority* derailed all the grueling efforts of 7 weeks' work. There need to be consequences. These 8 Senators sold us out. They need to be primaried. Isn't it 'convenient' that some of them are retiring and none are up for re-election next year. Coincidence? I don't think so. And we need new leadership. When one is at war and a few on one's side betrays the efforts of the group, it's called traitorous.
STOP shaming the 8! Courageous Senators!! Smell the roses - House Republicans will NEVER pass health care. They will propose all kinds of non-starters. They tried to repeal it 70 times! And Trump still Moana about McCain! In the meantime, the government was shutdown, causing all kinds of pain. SNAP was out, govt workers not paid, govt contractors will never be paid, parks are closed, flights are cancelled, etc. etc etc. Eventually, Dems would also be blamed for the shutdown. This way, if the Dems can capitalize INSTEAD of fighting amongst ourselves, we’ll be the adults in the room. The key is that we need to make a huge stink and get all over the news when they refuse to even discuss health care in the coming weeks. The decision by the 8 was pragmatic, a realization that Republicans will never discuss health care and this way we can reopen the government and highlight that it’s the Republicans who refuse to provide healthcare and then, just maybe Republicans will be backed into a corner and have to pass healthcare if the uproar is widespread enough when they go home for Thanksgiving. Sad state of affairs for sure, but if Dems play it right we can come out on top.
I have been wondering about this and also getting Rep. Grijalva sworn in. I am also thankful for the enormous back lash on the 8 senators. It sends a powerful message all need to hear about the fight we need, want and expect from our leaders in Congress.
I'll try calling Durbin's office again today to demand he step down. Of course you can never get through because of the high number of calls.
Americans need to get off the couch: Sick-ins, work slow downs, blocking traffic like the French did. If all we do is complain on social media, then we aren't providing our elected representatives, who do not control any branch of government, with the support they need to win. I am doubtful Americans have that muscle in them. For one thing, Trump has everyone afraid of the consequences, because he and MAGA have shown themselves to be cruel and ruthless.
Meanwhile, I read today in the NYT that American executives aren't showing up at COP either. Bunch of cowards! Can't wait for the economic boycott (but it's not enough).
So...why is Contrarian not all over the Nov. 18 day of action?
NYT Today. “The end to this government shutdown does not solve [the Republican] affordability problem,” said Amy Walter, the publisher and editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “A deal that included an extension of the subsidies would actually have helped.”
That vulnerability is clear in the actions of Republicans from states like New Jersey and Virginia, which elected Democratic governors by large margins in last week’s off-year elections.
Representatives Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, two Republicans facing competitive races next year, recently sent a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson telling him that once the government was reopened, Republicans needed to “immediately turn our focus to the growing crisis of health care affordability and the looming expiration of the enhanced Affordable Care Act (A.C.A.) premium tax credits.”
Not to mention Trumpepstein.
Your article is forgetting something that seems to be lost in this discussion. The shutdown is decimating the federal workforce and our most vulnerable population of people who rely on federal programs for food, shelter and energy. We are not your sacrifical lambs to slaughter for the greater good. People are not bargaining chips to be used to get the upper hand in neogiations. Both sides do it and it is morally and ethicially WRONG. I am thankful that 6 people were willing to fall on the sword to stop this nonsense. You want to save the ACA? So do I. Let's call, protest, do sit in's, whatever we need to do... and I don't know maybe win elections? A shutdown was never going to work when the GOP never cared about who it was hurting!
To be a contrarian to the current thinking, I recommend Robert Hubbell today and today's citation of Lawrence O'Donnell's take on the cave by the senate democrats. RH: "The consensus in the Comment section of yesterday’s newsletter was that Lawrence O’Donnell’s commentary on Monday evening helped calm the anger of many readers by contextualizing the difficult job of serving as Minority Leader and emphasizing how long Senator Schumer managed to hold the Democratic Caucus together. The commentary by Lawrence O’Donnell is here: Lawrence: With Trump’s shutdown ending, Dems are closer than ever to forcing Epstein files release."
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/lawrence-with-trump-s-shutdown-ending-dems-are-closer-than-ever-to-forcing-epstein-files-release-251756613516
The only problem is that the MAGA followers won't believe anything bad about Dear Leader. They don't care if Trump shoots someone. Or rapes women. Or demeans handicapped reporters. Or talks about grabbing women by the pussy. NOTHING will shake their devotion. Epstein, Shepstein, it doesn't matter. They will back Trump and forgive whatever he does.
But that is never going to change, so, you almost need to ignore them in your planning. They are a fixed variable.
I've been loathe to agree with those who think those eight Senators did the right thing. This morning I read a posting by Rachel Bitecofer which was eye-opening, convincing. And the writing was awesome. I'm not sure those senators were pursuing a noble strategy but I think, now, that the outcome might benefit the Democrats more than a continued shutdown might have.
https://open.substack.com/pub/thecycle/p/reality-bites?r=h0feb&utm_medium=ios
Yep, that’s worth a read. Thanks for the link.
We need to focus on protecting the election apparatus for 2026. We need to evict the MAGA election deniers from the ranks of poll workers and election certification groups across the country. We need for that election to occur on time and to be free and fair and for absentee ballots to be counted.
Election deniers as poll workers? I am an assistant manager at a precinct; we don't know the political persuasion of our fellow poll workers. But it doesn't matter--there are rules and protocols that everyone follows. Deniers on state boards of elections--that's the problem. They want to make voting as difficult as possible. In Georgia, their ideas are untenable--we poll workers would be working 24-hour shifts.
Agreed, I was thinking about the State Boards. I don't understand how retired people can handle the 14-hour election days as it is: 6 AM to 8 PM here. What do we do if ICE shows up at polling stations and actively detains people waiting in line? With access to voter registration files and driver's license photos, they can target Democrats who show up. It would only take a single election worker to call in a complaint to ICE to set off the interference.
From *On Tyranny; Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century
By Timothy Snyder
These guidelines have been incredibly helpful. Sharing in case readers have not seen them. The book and/or YouTube episodes on each lesson explain each in more detail.
1. Do not obey in advance.
2. Defend institutions.
3. Beware the one-party state.
4. Take responsibility for the face of the world.
5. Remember professional ethics.
6. Be wary of paramilitaries.
7. Be reflective if you must be armed.
8. Stand out.
9. Be kind to our language.
10.Believe in truth.
11.Investigate.
12.Make eye contact and small talk.
13.Practice corporeal politics.
14.Establish a private life.
15.Contribute to good causes.
16.Learn from peers in other countries.
17.Listen for dangerous words.
18.Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.
19.Be a patriot.
20.Be as courageous as you can.
*Source: Copyright 2017 Crown, an imprint of Random House.
I have his book & keep it on my coffee table for quick reference.
If Jennifer was going to be wrong, I'm glad it is with an issue like this. We will all know soon enough that the Decmocrats have won this contest, though I hate like hell to treat it even verbally as if it were a game. Republicans are taking a lambasting. Why? Suppose we have a building on fire. Democrats are the ones trying to put it out by carrying buckets of water from the river while Republicans are standing on the sidelines refusing to turn on the hoses they have exclusive control over. Finally, the Democrats, exhausted, fall to the ground and surrender. The building continues to burn. What do the Republicans do? Well, we shall see.
The Republicans set the building on fire in the first place, it’s no wonder they don’t want to help put it out. What they will do is ignore their inaction and blame Democrats for not putting the fire out. With better messaging on current social media, etc., the Democrats could well explain why they couldn’t put out that fire and why Republicans can if they wanted to, but they don’t. However, Democrats do not message well.
WOW! Strong words, sounds kinda MAGA like. Found it a bit of a turn off. Nothing like taking a chance on causing more chaos in the party such that a unifying cry.is not possible to maintain unity. Rather than send the energy to getting rid of Shumer and all the candidates you deem fit not to serve., is it possible that these 8 gave the Republicans an off ramp about the ACA? Of course if they choose not to take, well then all is squarely on them. A more unifying message is needed right now if we are going to save Democracy. This way doesn't seem right.
I tend to agree with this. We need to watch out for the "Blue Maga" impulse, an equal but opposite reaction to Red Maga. There is a lot of Blue Maga going on in reaction to the end of the shutdown.
The screaming, the pointing, the outraged stampedes of purity ponies, the instant "we're all doomed, it's all over, folks" analyses--these come straight from the amygdala, and while they make us feel good and righteous, they give us no real insight or path forward.