In lieu of concrete achievements gained after a costly, illegal, and wholly unpopular war, Donald Trump chooses to spew blather about the maybe-sort-of-kind-of Iran “agreement.” Translating Trump’s flim-flam and misleading platitudes into plain English helps assess the magnitude of his international debacle and the potential political damage to his party that indulged him in a reckless, unilateral war.
“Deal”/“Agreement”
Ever since talks got under way to end the Iran war hostilities, Americans have gotten daily episodes of “Deal or No Deal.” Frustrated whenever he cannot get his way and frantic to juice the stock market and soften energy prices, Trump repeatedly has lied about the existence of a completed deal and what is in it.
Trump appears unable to differentiate between what he wants in the deal and what Iran has agreed to. The New York Times reported that in its interview with him Sunday night, “Trump seemed to be describing Iranian concessions that the country has not yet made, or that have been kicked to the follow-up negotiations.” (Shocking, I know.) The Times explained, “The memorandum of understanding, for example, only suspends tolls in the strait for 60 days, and then promises a regional dialogue about the future. Iran had never charged tolls before the war, so Mr. Trump is essentially celebrating a return to the prewar status quo.” Ouch.
Such flailing and lying comes with a significant downside. Trump’s premature, baseless announcements and misconceptions about what has been agreed to risk hardening Iranians’ impression that he is an easily manipulated buffoon from whom they can squeeze more concessions. (That takeaway seems entirely reasonable considering how little Trump achieved.) In short, be wary of deals that are not deals, and deal points that only Trump has embraced.
“No cash”
When confronted over the weekend with reports that at least $20 billion in Iranian assets would be unfrozen, Vice President JD Vance insisted Iran would not be getting any cash. You can understand Vance’s defensiveness given that no issue generated more Obama-bashing in the context of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) than the $1.7 billion so-called “pallets of cash” released on conclusion of the negotiation. Trump repeatedly lambasted Barack Obama for supposedly helping Iran rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and beef up support for terror proxies.
Was Vance giving us the full story? Well, Israeli and other sources reported that Iran will get at least $20 billion via the United Arab Emirates, which the UAE publicly denied. (Did Vance mean to exclude U.S. but not UAE cash pallets?) Separately, Iran also claimed $12 billion will be released before negotiations even start. By Monday morning, Vance added a new element — $300 billion in “reconstruction funds.” On CBS’s morning show he said, “[T]hat’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf coast coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation.” I’m not sure what that means, but worse I am quite certain Vance and Trump have no idea what that all entails. (For one thing, we don’t know what “the obligation” is.)
To put it mildly, this sure does not sound like everything is nailed down, yet strangely the terms of the deal remain under wraps.
In short, should Iran get anything close to these exorbitant sums before complying with all the terms of a final nuclear deal (and without guarantees the money won’t be spend for nefarious purposes), Republicans will be so disappointed. After all, some of them probably still take at face value whatever Trump and Vance say on any given day.
“Better than the JCPOA”?!
Trump has been fixated on getting a better result than the JCPOA he ripped up in 2018. However, we already know it is/will be worse just because of the cost obtaining it.
The price Trump (and in turn, all of us) paid for this pathetic resolution to America’s most disastrous war is breathtaking. Unlike Trump, Obama did not launch a unilateral, illegal war and blow $100 billion to get the JCPOA. On Obama’s watch, 13 Americans did not die in reckless, ill-prepared combat operations, nor did hundreds of our troops suffer serious injuries. Obama did not kill thousands of civilians throughout the region, repeatedly violate international law, send inflation soaring, burden Americans with crushing gas prices, reveal American isolation, or give China a leg up in international competition to obtain the JCPOA. Trump did all that and more.
Trump depleted our munitions, which will take years and billions to restore. He shifted naval assets away from Asia, giving China a tactical and entirely free advantage while signaling to our allies in the region they may be expendable. And Trump’s meandering, incompetent management of the war convinced our Gulf allies we are hapless and unreliable.
If you are going to rack up those kind of costs, you better be getting something really significant from Iran, right? Alas ( pardon the expression), Trump seems like a cheap date. As the New York Times reported:
Mr. Trump repeatedly compared his new memorandum of understanding to the 2015 agreement reached between President Barack Obama and Iran’s leadership, arguing that his agreement will assure that Iran “cannot develop or purchase a nuclear weapon.” Iran agreed to that when it first ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1970, and reaffirmed that agreement on the first page of the Obama-era accord.
Oops. Trump seems incapable of accepting that he did not get (and may never get) anything of real value from Iran.
If, by some chance, the deal goes beyond recycled pablum, Trump negotiators would face a heavy lift to match the terms negotiated alongside our allies in 2015 (e.g., precise caps on enrichment, an extensive inspection protocol lasting at least 15 years, sanctions snapback rules). For now, Americans are left to ask, “what this costly war without clearly articulated goals or legal basis actually achieved,” J Street Executive Director Jeremy Ben Ami told me. If Iran is going to “get billions in cash and sanctions relief, and the details of the agreement on nuclear fuel, limits on enrichment, and inspections still need to be worked out,” Ben Ami pointed out, “that’s precisely where we were before this pointless four-month war.”
Puffery gone wild
In sum, the Trump regime’s happy talk and empty platitudes about the Iran negotiations are worse than meaningless; they are a cynical effort to hide his responsibility for massive national humiliation. (Frightfully, they may signify Trump has no idea what is going on.)
Vance, who will be saddled with defending this dog’s breakfast of a deal if he runs for president, went so far as to declare the deal would “fundamentally transform the Middle East for the next 50 years.” (Only 50 years? What then?) His and Trump’s biggest problem in snowing their MAGA base may be Israel (which is already excoriating the deal) and MAGA anti-Iran hawks, who blew a gasket when details of the scheme emerged previously. What happens when they get sick of carrying Trump’s water and start blasting the deal along the same terms as Democrats?
In any event, the time has long passed to stop listening to Trump’s weasel words and phrases. Whenever you hear them, remember they likely amount to a confession of abject failure. If the deal were so great, believe me, we would know exactly what is in it.
Here's another thought on Words & Phrases we should stop using: I don't think we should dis weasels (or, indeed, any other non-humans) by attributing human traits, particularly negative ones, to them. In this case, specifically, a weasel: A weasel would never do what Donald J. Trump and his evil minions have done, are doing, and seem hellbent on continuing to do.
"War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength."
There used to be a difference between dystopic fiction and reality. I would like reality back, please.