Buoyed by Sherrod Brown’s announcement from Ohio that he will run for Senate, Democrats are looking around the country for other red states with vulnerable MAGA Senate incumbents. One prime target is Iowa, where incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is up for re-election, if in fact she decides to run.
Ernst is hugely unpopular back home. A June PPP poll put her approval at a pathetic 39% with her disapproval rating at 47%. An incumbent under 50% approval is generally considered to be in trouble. The poll also found just 28% approved of her handling of Medicaid, with 49% disapproving. “69% of voters have heard about Ernst’s recent comment that we’re all going to die, and she’s facing fallout from it,” the pollsters found. “By a 37 point margin, those familiar with what she said report being less likely to vote for her next year.” When the midterms roll around, Ernst should expect every Iowa voter to have heard about her stance, and will realize, among other things, the impact her vote will have on Iowa’s rural hospitals.
The local NBC TV affiliate reported last month, “There are more than 700,000 Iowans enrolled in Medicaid, which is roughly 22% of the population.” Many of these people live in rural Iowa. “According to the American Hospital Association, the state would see a $2.666 billion reduction in federal Medicaid spending on rural hospitals over the next decade.”
While Ernst has not formally announced her re-election bid, she has begun daring Democrats to take her on. Democrats need little encouragement, it seems. Unsurprisingly, with such a weak incumbent, the field is getting crowded. Democratic state representative Josh Turek, state senator Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce Director Nathan Sage have all jumped in. Turek and Sage have already drawn national attention with their compelling announcement videos.
Turek, a Paralympics gold medalist, described his hardscrabble upbringing and experience living with a severe disability in what may be one of the most effective ads of the cycle:
A match-up between a courageous, tenacious individual for whom Medicaid was essential and an arrogant senator who has proven to deprioritize the real people she is supposed to represent has many Democrats chomping at the bit.
One previously announced Democratic candidate, Iowa state representative J.D. Scholten, has already dropped out to endorse Turek’s bid. “From the very beginning, I thought a prairie populist athlete from Western Iowa would be the best candidate to win in the General election,” he said. “I still do, but instead of me, I have complete confidence that Josh Turek can take this on. That’s why I am suspending my campaign and endorsing him.”
Sage, who grew up in a trailer park in Mason City, also drew widespread praise for his announcement video:
Sage’s compelling profile—war veteran, sports radio host, mechanic, and business leader—defies the usual Democratic stereotype.
Wahls, just thirty-four years old, is running as the leader of a new generation and, as a child of two moms, touts his early defense of gay marriage. He enters the race with a populist record in the state legislature fighting corporate interests.
Norris, the only woman in the field, has a decidedly different profile, featuring her experience “as chief of staff for former first lady Michelle Obama and for a nonprofit run by former President George H.W. Bush, as well as on the campaigns of former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and former President Barack Obama.” She will not be able to run as a Washington D.C. outsider; nevertheless, she consistently emphasizes her nonpolitical background as a teacher and CEO of Goodwill of Central Iowa.
It is rare to have so many quality candidates (let alone two who come from such modest backgrounds) this eager to challenge a two-term Republican incumbent in a red state, which is a reflection of just how flawed Ernst is as a candidate. In addition to her vote for the big, ugly bill that slashes SNAP and Medicaid benefits to pay for tax cuts for billionaires, she has been a rubber stamp for Donald Trump’s worst nominees, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. (So much for her sympathetic biography as a veteran and sexual assault survivor.) She will no doubt have to defend his scandal-plagued record, removal of women from top military positions, and egregious security lapses throughout her potential campaign. Her votes for other disastrous nominees (e.g., anti-science Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert Kennedy Jr.) will face similar scrutiny.
Likewise, Ernst will be forced to account for DOGE’s slashing $2B USAID (taking away income from farmers), decimation of PBS and NPR (which provide a crucial lifeline to rural communities), and loss of millions in grants to Iowa-based researchers. When you add in the Trump tariffs that are exacting a toll on Iowa farmers, businesses and consumers, Democrats have a bonanza of targets. “A new report finds importers in Iowa paid more than triple the bill in April 2025 compared to April of last year, as tariffs implemented by the Trump administration impact industries like farming and local businesses,” local papers reported.
In an ordinary midterm, Ernst would not be in trouble. But 2026 will be no ordinary midterm, and Ernst is no ordinary incumbent. An historically unpopular president with an equally unpopular agenda coupled with a politically tone-deaf incumbent gives Iowa Democrats—and pro-democracy fighters nationwide—hope that they could flip a critical Senate seat. Frankly, any of the Democratic contenders would be a vast improvement over Joni “We-are-all-going-to-die” Ernst.
Ernst has proven herself to be a terrible person. Iowa has a really great opportunity ahead. Grassley is well past his sell-by date.
Eventually, everyone is going to die (a political death)