A shutdown might make Trump more powerful

Given the extraordinary power grab by the president, the stakes surrounding Congress’s spending power are much higher. This is a critical turning point for democracy.

Our nation is again facing shutdown Groundhog Day. By a Sept. 30 deadline, Congress must either fund government operations or bring a halt to many critical federal programs while sidelining hundreds of thousands of federal employees and forcing others, uniformed and civilian, to work without pay.

This latest in a long string of yearly budget standoffs comes at a particularly perilous time, one in which President Donald Trump has brazenly usurped congressional authority by unilaterally shutting down agencies and programs he dislikes. He has withheld congressionally approved funds, fired so many employees that agencies cannot perform many of their normal functions, directed government resources to attack political enemies and benefit his financial interests, and chosen not to enforce laws he disfavors.

The administration has already haphazardly removed tens of thousands of federal employees from government, causing disruption and long-term harm to services that Americans rely on. To date, my organization, the Partnership for Public Service, estimates that Trump has shown the door to 201,386 federal employees through firings and a deferred resignation program, with the administration projecting that number to reach about 300,000 by the end of the year, or one in eight federal workers. A shutdown will only compound that problem by causing increased service outages and customer service backlogs.

Government shutdowns are terrible failures of leadership in ordinary times. The last shutdown took place in 2018-2019, during Trump’s first term, and lasted five weeks. About 380,000 employees were furloughed and another 420,000 had to work without pay, hurting morale and reducing services to the public. During that shutdown, for example, Transportation Security Administration agents and air traffic controllers were among those forced to stay on the job without pay; eventually, some did not show up for work, leaving travelers facing airline delays and safety risks.

If a shutdown occurs, it is likely that many civilian employees at the Department of Defense would be sent home and a wide range of government activities would be curtailed. For example, it is anticipated that national parks would close; food safety, drinking water and environmental inspections would come to a halt; nutrition assistance benefits for the needy would be stopped; IRS customer services and assistance for veterans would be disrupted; federal disaster relief funds could dry up; small-business, agricultural and student loans would be delayed; and disease surveillance and protection programs could be further diminished.

As damaging as it is, a government shutdown is both a misnomer and a manufactured problem. Nearly three-quarters of government spending is mandatory, including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and thus not subject to these budgetary fights.

In fact, shutting down the government because of a lack of appropriations didn’t occur until 1980, when President Jimmy Carter’s attorney general, Benjamin Civiletti, interpreted the Antideficiency Act to require government work to stop during a lapse in appropriations. In prior years, the government would continue to function while Congress worked out these breaks in funding, which was seen as an accounting function.

As government funding became tied into hot-button cultural issues and increasingly polarized, funding the government became a political football. Imagine your favorite college of NFL team stopping the game because they can’t decide on the coin toss while you sit in the stands for hours waiting for them to come to an agreement. You paid all of that money for the ticket and now you get nothing. You wouldn’t be happy with that outcome, and you shouldn’t be happy with a government shutdown either.

This time, however, is different. If Republicans and Democrats cannot reach a spending deal by the end of the month in the current highly charged political environment, Trump and Russell Vought, his budget director, will have enormous latitude to determine which services, programs, and employees can be sidelined, decisions that could go far beyond what has occurred during past shutdowns.

During every shutdown, federal agencies must determine which services are critical to the preservation of life or property and can continue, which services they have to shutter, which employees must work without pay and which employees are “not exempt” and must stay home.

Contrary to most public reporting, this decision is not about how “essential” an employee is or is not, but how their role is funded and whether their function is related to the preservation of life and property.

Previously, agencies have tried to minimize service disruptions by keeping as many working as possible. These, however, are not ordinary times. In practical terms, Trump could easily use a shutdown to dismantle many additional government functions, continue haphazardly removing employees on the “non-exempt” lists, and further alter the balance of power between Congress and the White House.

Given the extraordinary power grab by the president now in progress, the stakes surrounding Congress’s use of its power of the purse are much higher. This is a critical turning point for our democratic system of governance.

The current dysfunctional path is unsustainable, representing a waste of taxpayer resources, placing vital public services in jeopardy, and creating a disincentive for talented people to enter a federal service system that is already under assault.

There is no easy answer to solving the current political divide, the dispute over the role and scope of our government, or the president’s grab for unlimited power, but it is vital that Congress find ways to reach common ground rather than allowing our government and our democratic system to fall further into chaos and dysfunction.

Max Stier is the founding president and CEO of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, an organization focused on building a better government and a stronger democracy.

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