A Strategic Defeat of Historic Proportions

No amount of self-delusion can change that

Donald Trump, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and their MAGA cult can tell themselves whatever lies they want about “victory” against Iran, but make no mistake: The United States suffered a decisive and devastating defeat in an illegal war that was doomed from the get-go.

“Although the United States has agreed to a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran, Tehran continues to exercise de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz,” Commander, JAGC (ret.) Mark Nevitt writes for Just Security.

Iran’s Foreign Minister has declared that vessels seeking to transit the Strait must coordinate directly with Iranian armed forces, subject to unspecified ‘technical limitations’—a posture that amounts to a unilateral assertion of sovereign authority over one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

Trump has handed over an international waterway to the Iranians, who will now charge (at least) $2M per vessel. (Blocking an international waterway and charging a toll violates international law, by the way.) Trump, unbelievably, contemplates this “joint venture” — a “beautiful thing” — with Iran. (If that is not evidence of mental defect, I’m not sure what is.)

As Nevitt points out, we have given Iran the ability to blackmail the entire world, holding the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate bargaining chip. The current energy shock may therefore become a permanent chokehold on our economy. Just imagine if Barack Obama had left the Strait of Hormuz in Iranian hands and allowed it to recoup financial losses by charging the rest of the world for the privilege of transit.

Trump’s failure does not end there. He has placed no restriction on Iran’s stash of enriched uranium, no limits on its missile program, and no barrier to its continued support for terrorist groups. If the aim of the war was regime change or even to end Iran’s ability to project power in the region, the war has been a colossal failure at a high cost (13 American deaths, thousands of Iranians dead, billions spent, damage to our Gulf allies). We have facilitated the transition to a leader at least as dogmatic as the last and extended Iran’s influence (from the region to the international energy market). “They will control and toll the Strait for the first time. They keep their nuclear program. They keep their missiles. What a disaster,” tweeted Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT).

Honest analysts describe this as a strategic defeat. Munk School of Global Affairs founding director Janice Stein told CBS News, “This is frankly a huge strategic defeat, no matter what follows, because Iran is functionally in control of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Likewise, longtime Middle East diplomat Aaron David Miller tells me that this defeat is “a significant strategic failure in a poorly planned war of choice.” The list of Iranian gains is stunning: “The regime survives controlling highly enriched uranium” and retains “residual capacity to attack Gulf states and control/influence over the Strait.” Miller notes that in granting Iran its 10-point wish list for purposes of a ceasefire, Trump has conceded this as a floor for further negotiations. No amount of spin, self-delusion, or lies “can change those realities quickly, easily, or likely at all,” he observes.

From Israel’s point of view, this is also a defeat. “[The Iranian] regime retains its buried stockpile of highly enriched uranium,” writes David Horovitz of The Times of Israel. “It may, if anything, be more inclined to attempt a breakout to the bomb, with a heightened determination to destroy Israel and to achieve broader invulnerability to future attack.” Likewise, the ceasefire is silent on the Iranian missile program, which showed remarkable success in piercing Israel’s defense and leaves Iran more confident than ever of its ability to wreak havoc based on its demonstrated resilience during the war.

Trump is not the sole author of this calamity. Congressional Republicans who refused to approve a War Powers Act resolution, conducted no public oversight hearings of high-level national security officials during the war, remained mute as Trump threatened genocide, and are now making excuses for an objectively terrible deal have shown themselves to be feckless, useless lackeys. If the American people want a Congress that will stop unnecessary, reckless wars and avoid threats of genocide, they must boot out Republicans.

Where do Democrats go from here?

For starters, Democrats must continue to make the case emphatically that Trump is an unstable, unfit, and mentally unwell. While the 25^th Amendment is not a real possibility right now, they can, by raising and focusing on the issue, highlight Republicans’ utter irresponsibility in failing to control a madman. (Democrats should also preserve all options after the midterms to pursue impeachment of Trump and/or Hegseth.) With a mentally unfit leader, the country — more than ever — needs grown-ups in Congress willing to rein him in.

In addition, Democrats must insist on oversight hearings, calling Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine to explain what planning took place, what the goals of this war were, how the ceasefire advances those goals, and why giving up the Strait of Hormuz should be seen as anything other than a humiliating defeat. We also need a full accounting of the cost of the war, including the potentially long-lasting energy shock.

Beyond that, a thorough examination of the utterly dysfunctional Pentagon (including subpoenas of recently fired and retired officers) must be undertaken. Giving the Pentagon an enormous increase should be off the table in funding, so long as Hegseth runs amok and gobs of money are spent for no recognizable benefit.

Finally, as Congress did after 9/11, Democrats — once back in control of one or both Houses — should impanel an independent commission of former secretaries of state and defense, national security advisers, CIA directors, and senior military, as well as retired Senate and House chairmen of relevant committees. This expert body can provide a top-to-bottom analysis of this entire fiasco and make recommendations for, among other things, a revision of the War Powers Act. (The system should be turned around, that is, to suspend troop deployment and funding after 30 days unless Congress votes to authorize a military action/war.)

In sum, at a mammoth cost, the U.S. has suffered a humiliating strategic defeat. This is also a massive failure of the entire Republican Party, which must be held accountable at the polls for abdicating its duties. It will then be up to Democrats to chart a path to recover from this nightmare.