Not reflected in the employment data, but definitely happening is the fact that it is much harder for professionals in a variety of fields to get new jobs. Just in my limited experience, I see a nonprofit manager, a digital marketing expert, a user experience expert, and a technical writer getting nowhere in job searches. I'm not sure why this is occurring, but it has to have at least some relation to the chaos in the economy and country in general. And what are all the discharged federal employees doing other than getting unemployment??
Up until recently, many thousands of initially fired federal employees were put back on " administrative leave" and thus still getting pay and benefits but not allowed to work. This literally went on for months, costing untold billions. Do much for muck bringing us " efficiency".
This is the biggest reason the Medicaid cuts in the big ugly bill aren't to occur until after the 2028 election, allowing the GOP to retain power through 2028.
"There’s a good explanation for this. First, much of the soft data show that Trump’s trade war, DOGE cuts, disregard for rule of law, and all the rest of the chaos are working everybody’s last good nerve."
While not a leading economic indicator, animal shelters in our area (urban/midwest) are seeing a significant increase in voluntary pet surrenders. Typically this signals belt tightening in households - less disposable income requires cutbacks in discretionary spending and, no matter how much you love your dog or cat, most people typically love themselves, their kids and their house/car more.
This data will be supplemented by buyer's remorse as The Grifter continues to betray those who put him in office. He said it out loud during the campaign. He didn't care about them. He just wanted their votes. That was during a rally in Las Vegas. The Democrats should have blasted that from the rooftops. Why they let that comment drift from view is beyond me. As natural disasters invetibably occur and the current "administration" can't or won't handle them, there could be rioting in the streets. The big oaf uses that MAGA crap. What he's actually doing is making American into a third-world country. The repercussions of his ill-informed, knee-jerk decisions are going to be catastrophic is so many ways.
You are a famous and respected economist which makes this more embarrassing.
Imports do not subtract from GDP
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
Imports purchases are counted in domestic consumption (C) investment (I) and government (G) so imports (M) are subtracted to get Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Not reflected in the employment data, but definitely happening is the fact that it is much harder for professionals in a variety of fields to get new jobs. Just in my limited experience, I see a nonprofit manager, a digital marketing expert, a user experience expert, and a technical writer getting nowhere in job searches. I'm not sure why this is occurring, but it has to have at least some relation to the chaos in the economy and country in general. And what are all the discharged federal employees doing other than getting unemployment??
Up until recently, many thousands of initially fired federal employees were put back on " administrative leave" and thus still getting pay and benefits but not allowed to work. This literally went on for months, costing untold billions. Do much for muck bringing us " efficiency".
I'll be waiting to see what happens. As Mr. Bernstein writes "it can take months for the data to reflect even consequential policy changes".
This is the biggest reason the Medicaid cuts in the big ugly bill aren't to occur until after the 2028 election, allowing the GOP to retain power through 2028.
I have read some of the cuts will happen earlier.
"There’s a good explanation for this. First, much of the soft data show that Trump’s trade war, DOGE cuts, disregard for rule of law, and all the rest of the chaos are working everybody’s last good nerve."
I know it's been only about 130 or so days.
So why does it feel like it's been 130 MONTHS?!?
While not a leading economic indicator, animal shelters in our area (urban/midwest) are seeing a significant increase in voluntary pet surrenders. Typically this signals belt tightening in households - less disposable income requires cutbacks in discretionary spending and, no matter how much you love your dog or cat, most people typically love themselves, their kids and their house/car more.
I'd give this a heart; but it's so sad and true.
This data will be supplemented by buyer's remorse as The Grifter continues to betray those who put him in office. He said it out loud during the campaign. He didn't care about them. He just wanted their votes. That was during a rally in Las Vegas. The Democrats should have blasted that from the rooftops. Why they let that comment drift from view is beyond me. As natural disasters invetibably occur and the current "administration" can't or won't handle them, there could be rioting in the streets. The big oaf uses that MAGA crap. What he's actually doing is making American into a third-world country. The repercussions of his ill-informed, knee-jerk decisions are going to be catastrophic is so many ways.
Wish this was offered as an AI read article...
Jared
You are a famous and respected economist which makes this more embarrassing.
Imports do not subtract from GDP
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
Imports purchases are counted in domestic consumption (C) investment (I) and government (G) so imports (M) are subtracted to get Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The St Louis Fed has a teaching GDP
https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/2024/08/bring-fred-into-the-classroom-august-2024/
that you must watch.
Yes--my careless error. X is exports which adds to GDP
Please indicate what is "X", so I understand the computation. For my own edification. Thanks.