Now in the 90 day “quiet period”, the Republican Party’s challenge to the National Voter Registration Act, while not quiet, is losing bad. Of the 30 states that Trump sued for voter rolls Trump has lost 21 and won 0. Even calls for a national security emergency would never pass muster. His ploy against mail in voting has been rebuked by Judge Talwani: “The court finds that enfranchisement heavily outweighs the executive’s attempt to unconstitutionally insert itself into the domain of election regulation.”
Which brings up Trump’s favorite tactic, lies and smears, fear and intimidation through repetition and coordination, with no quiet period, ever. It is just as valid to counter this method as it is any legal challenge.
Trump’s most feared word is loser. He is a 2020 loser and come November he will be an even bigger loser. The memos just released by the WhiteHouse show that the Mueller counterintelligence investigation was short circuited. When Russia released the Clinton emails, at Trump’s request, Russia was listening and responded, without Russia’s help, loser. Call him a Fascist, which he is, but loser, never, call him an autocrat, which he is, but to be called feeble, in mind and body, loser. Accuse him of graft and corruption, but the Iranian War, loser.
All of these very pertinent issues have depth in signifying the complexity of our situation and with the added worth of know your enemy acumen, the ability to be right on target.
Trump is a loser at everything: Business (multiple bankruptcies and failed companies); marriage and family life (three failed marriages and children who only like his money); governing the country (too long to list).
tRump is very impulsive and plunges into businesses which he is too stupid to research and learn about before diving in. And, he is running his Regime the same way. He will be remembered for being the cruelest, most imbecilic, worst president in our Nation's history.
Great! I've been waiting for the "big tent" revival, as it were. To me, this is the clearest path to overturning the current government overreach against anything "different" from Wonder-Bread America.
A return to a true "USA" (not "America") by embracing multiple POV's is the best way out of this quagmire. Thanks!
Like I said when Mamdani got elected, his politics might not play in Peoria, but his campaign style will play everywhere. It's time for Democrats to recruit more engaging characters on all spots on the political spectrum. Remember that it's hard to be inspired by the political equivalent of a vanilla milkshake.
I'm also reminded of a quote from former Texas Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower:
The only thing in the middle of the road is a bunch of dead armadillos.
Jim Hightower is the man! Still going strong at age 83. I urge everyone to subscribe to his Substack, The Hightower Lowdown. Jim does amusing 2-minute “radio spots” about current news and opinions that always make my day. Check him out! 🤠
It's hard to comprehend how people like Rubio continue to bend the knee to Trump, sacrificing every iota of their self respect while being treated like cannon fodder (referencing his use of them on the decoy AF1 while he scuttled away like a cockroach when the lights come on). They believe this is going to pay off for them? They are disposable, Trump only cares about himself and the money he can grift off the presidency. Here's hoping this does not go well for any of them.
Main stream media continues to scream about schisms in the Democratic party, when in reality the party is just a big tent. Differences can be overcome by focusing on what unites the team, which is what we're doing. And the GOP keeps protecting its criminals and incompetents, all to protect one deteriorating, bloviating, self-centered, amoral occupant of the WH.
AOC didn’t endorse Hong either and Jen is correct to say that the candidate with the clearest message wins. Think El- Sayed , his message was clear and he won by a squeaker. If Talarico beats Ken Paxton that could really shake things up for November, but the key to winning in Texas is voter turnout as it will be everywhere but especially in Texas and Alabama for keeping our 2 congressional seats blue.
As a Minnesotan, your analysis is spot on for us! We embrace both moderate Amy Klobuchar and progressive Peggy Flanagan because they are excellent candidates. It feels like it's been a long time coming to be a proud Democrat again. I'm keeping the faith!
And polls are out of control and harmful, not just useless. It’s become a money-making game. There used to be a few reliable ones, that explained their thinking and demographics. Now we have no idea if the questions are multiple choice answers, or who is being asked, or even what the questions are. People just hear “conclusions” by the pollsters. Just stop with the media in thrall to meaningless polls. Instead report the actual news and call lies lies, expose corruption and support those doing the hard work of creating policies for the common good and expose those tearing down our country at all levels of government.
Agreed. Polls are useful to candidates who can adjust their focus based on what voters are telling them. As is stated over and over, but always forgotten in the excitement of the horse race, polls are snapshots in time. But, in our compulsion for the constant scroll, we start seeing them as a crystal ball foretelling the future.
The better way for armchair politicos to look at polls is the approach of G. Elliot Morris.Watch the trends. Aggregate the polls over time and focus really hard on the questions asked and the batch sampled. And of course, just to realize that primaries are a crapshoot.
I hope that all of you Contrarians realize there are Democrats in S.C. who desperately want change and who support Annie Andrews and Germaine Johnson. I do not understand how Republicans hold so much control in this state. So I and a group of friends and family support each other and take part in demonstrations. This community gives me hope that while it may not happen in this state, there is a growing chance that Democrats will prevail in the midterms.
Hi Ginger! I am in Southern California and have donated to Dr. Annie Andrews twice already (before Lindsey’s passing). Loved her Substack interviews. She is an impressive candidate and I wish her and South Carolinians all the luck on November 3rd.
I for one am disappointed but not surprised by Hong's extremely narrow loss, given the barrage of media reports about a tweet from five years ago. But all my family in Wisconsin will be supporting and voting for Crowley for sure, even though they all voted for Hong.
I hope WI voters are right! Maybe it is for the best to not nominate Hong, we will see. Crowley has not received anything remotely close to the intense media scrutiny that Hong has had. He has a decent track record in most respects in Milwaukee but for sure Tiffany will be talking about Milwaukee's budget woes nonstop. This race ended up being essentially Hong vs not Hong. I would wager barely anyone in this thread knows much him.
Crowley has his own social media missteps which are mentioned in the article Rubin linked yesterday, but that overall have barely been mentioned in recent reporting. They are old but many are far more obnoxious and there are lots more of them than the handful of Hong's tweets that have been front page news for weeks. Crowley's excuse that multiple people used the account is really weak. Personally I couldn't care less about any of them, but no doubt the WI GOP will care and we will hear more about them.
On at least one actually important issue in Wisconsin, he is far out of step with the wide majority of Wisconsin voters and with Hong's position - the proliferation of data centers. This has received next to no coverage, due to the nonstop focus on Hong's inconsequential tweets.
Surveys in Wisconsin going back a year show anywhere from 70 to 80% of people there being firmly against the building of any new data centers. This is bipartisan and should be a slam dunk issue for Democrats. Instead, Crowley has publicly supported building more data centers and has only offered meek regulations. Hong, by contrast, has fully support a statewide moratorium. Contrary to everything we constantly hear, Hong's position is the 'mainstream' one, Crowley's is the outlier. His tepid stance on wealth tax is also not in line with the Democratic base.
When Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race, he specifically called out 'special interests and political insiders making backroom deals' when asked about the re-entrance of Crowley into the race. Governor Evers's endorsement of Crowley was a highly unusual move, especially since he passed over his own lieutenant governor Barnes . The fact that it took the entire Democratic establishment of Wisconsin, let alone an avalanche of negative reporting about Hong, for Crowley to just barely win with less than 40% of the vote is a bit worrying IMO.
All that said, I truly hope he does win! I have read that him and Hong are already planning campaign stops together, so that's a good thing. Overall they agree far more than they disagree.
Thanks for the report. Even if the national press did a better job of providing these details, it is only the locals and the local press who actually have the depth of knowledge about local political dynamics. That's why the national press is always surprised at outcomes in primaries. It is just imposing its horse-race narrative on a couple of issues which may or may not be what's motivating primary voters.
I just posted another comment about polling. I'd add people were surprised because they are only looking at primary polls, which historically had a really wide range of accuracy for primary races. G. Elliot Morris had a good piece about this earlier this week. The polling for the Flanagan /Craig race was just as inaccurate as for Hong/Crowley, but in the other direction.
I read Morris's article. I'm really loving the stuff I can get here on Substack. I'm in Texas. Since our primaries are over and we've been in general campaign mode since Spring, we're getting polls for the general election. The trend is moving toward Democrats ever so fragilely. But, I don't accept that as indicating anything other than voter displeasure with thirty years of one-party Republican power. (Yep, they are the dog that caught the car.)
As with anywhere in this country, the real thing to watch is the political ability of the Democratic candidates and their ability to ignite and rally voters. In Texas, Republican candidates are starting land with a thud as Talarico, Hinojosa and all the other talented candidates start "floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee". Anyway, I digress.
We area all reading about Texas of course and rooting for Talarico (I was born there btw)! I think the only moral is, to read primary polling, and all polling really, with skepticism, and to never take your foot off the gas, or get discouraged, by polling.
Makes sense that in this day and age it would be more challenging to poll. Who answers their phone when its an unknown caller?
"The better candidate with the clearest message tends to win.". Hoping all Democratic candidates are paying attention to this. As I have mentioned before, we need to ditch the labels and focus on the message. In spite of the downer view of the SC senate race, hoping this will prove true, and Annie Andrews will surprise all!
Vermonter Amanda Janoo, a young economist beat her rival to face Republican Governor Phil Scott in November. Scott has been popular, but less so now in the years since Covid for vetoing too many bipartisan bills.
To the Democrats in Congress:
Now in the 90 day “quiet period”, the Republican Party’s challenge to the National Voter Registration Act, while not quiet, is losing bad. Of the 30 states that Trump sued for voter rolls Trump has lost 21 and won 0. Even calls for a national security emergency would never pass muster. His ploy against mail in voting has been rebuked by Judge Talwani: “The court finds that enfranchisement heavily outweighs the executive’s attempt to unconstitutionally insert itself into the domain of election regulation.”
Which brings up Trump’s favorite tactic, lies and smears, fear and intimidation through repetition and coordination, with no quiet period, ever. It is just as valid to counter this method as it is any legal challenge.
Trump’s most feared word is loser. He is a 2020 loser and come November he will be an even bigger loser. The memos just released by the WhiteHouse show that the Mueller counterintelligence investigation was short circuited. When Russia released the Clinton emails, at Trump’s request, Russia was listening and responded, without Russia’s help, loser. Call him a Fascist, which he is, but loser, never, call him an autocrat, which he is, but to be called feeble, in mind and body, loser. Accuse him of graft and corruption, but the Iranian War, loser.
All of these very pertinent issues have depth in signifying the complexity of our situation and with the added worth of know your enemy acumen, the ability to be right on target.
We the people do not consent.
Trump is a loser at everything: Business (multiple bankruptcies and failed companies); marriage and family life (three failed marriages and children who only like his money); governing the country (too long to list).
In business someone, I can't remember who, said: Everything Trump touches turns to (poop)
tRump is very impulsive and plunges into businesses which he is too stupid to research and learn about before diving in. And, he is running his Regime the same way. He will be remembered for being the cruelest, most imbecilic, worst president in our Nation's history.
Agreed-- nobody ever claimed that he's the spittin' image of Warren Buffet!
His wealth has only ever been about opportunistic grift, fraud, and abuse - and OPM!
Great! I've been waiting for the "big tent" revival, as it were. To me, this is the clearest path to overturning the current government overreach against anything "different" from Wonder-Bread America.
A return to a true "USA" (not "America") by embracing multiple POV's is the best way out of this quagmire. Thanks!
Like I said when Mamdani got elected, his politics might not play in Peoria, but his campaign style will play everywhere. It's time for Democrats to recruit more engaging characters on all spots on the political spectrum. Remember that it's hard to be inspired by the political equivalent of a vanilla milkshake.
I'm also reminded of a quote from former Texas Agriculture Commissioner Jim Hightower:
The only thing in the middle of the road is a bunch of dead armadillos.
Love this quote!
Jim Hightower is the man! Still going strong at age 83. I urge everyone to subscribe to his Substack, The Hightower Lowdown. Jim does amusing 2-minute “radio spots” about current news and opinions that always make my day. Check him out! 🤠
It's hard to comprehend how people like Rubio continue to bend the knee to Trump, sacrificing every iota of their self respect while being treated like cannon fodder (referencing his use of them on the decoy AF1 while he scuttled away like a cockroach when the lights come on). They believe this is going to pay off for them? They are disposable, Trump only cares about himself and the money he can grift off the presidency. Here's hoping this does not go well for any of them.
Main stream media continues to scream about schisms in the Democratic party, when in reality the party is just a big tent. Differences can be overcome by focusing on what unites the team, which is what we're doing. And the GOP keeps protecting its criminals and incompetents, all to protect one deteriorating, bloviating, self-centered, amoral occupant of the WH.
Differences respected are strengths!
Don't forget to add that said medial also protects Trump's support team in congress and the supreme court.
AOC didn’t endorse Hong either and Jen is correct to say that the candidate with the clearest message wins. Think El- Sayed , his message was clear and he won by a squeaker. If Talarico beats Ken Paxton that could really shake things up for November, but the key to winning in Texas is voter turnout as it will be everywhere but especially in Texas and Alabama for keeping our 2 congressional seats blue.
Thanks to all. Let’s go and take our country back
As a Minnesotan, your analysis is spot on for us! We embrace both moderate Amy Klobuchar and progressive Peggy Flanagan because they are excellent candidates. It feels like it's been a long time coming to be a proud Democrat again. I'm keeping the faith!
And polls are out of control and harmful, not just useless. It’s become a money-making game. There used to be a few reliable ones, that explained their thinking and demographics. Now we have no idea if the questions are multiple choice answers, or who is being asked, or even what the questions are. People just hear “conclusions” by the pollsters. Just stop with the media in thrall to meaningless polls. Instead report the actual news and call lies lies, expose corruption and support those doing the hard work of creating policies for the common good and expose those tearing down our country at all levels of government.
Agreed. Polls are useful to candidates who can adjust their focus based on what voters are telling them. As is stated over and over, but always forgotten in the excitement of the horse race, polls are snapshots in time. But, in our compulsion for the constant scroll, we start seeing them as a crystal ball foretelling the future.
The better way for armchair politicos to look at polls is the approach of G. Elliot Morris.Watch the trends. Aggregate the polls over time and focus really hard on the questions asked and the batch sampled. And of course, just to realize that primaries are a crapshoot.
Haha, love your closing sentence. And yes, the "horse race" obsession........
Thank you!
Perhaps I can delay my plans to be thrown into a mass grave by Stephen Miller.
Love your writing and particularly the last paragraph Jen! Thanks for your hopeful, optimistic insights!
The democrats future is much brighter at this point than this time last year! 😎
I hope that all of you Contrarians realize there are Democrats in S.C. who desperately want change and who support Annie Andrews and Germaine Johnson. I do not understand how Republicans hold so much control in this state. So I and a group of friends and family support each other and take part in demonstrations. This community gives me hope that while it may not happen in this state, there is a growing chance that Democrats will prevail in the midterms.
Hi Ginger! I am in Southern California and have donated to Dr. Annie Andrews twice already (before Lindsey’s passing). Loved her Substack interviews. She is an impressive candidate and I wish her and South Carolinians all the luck on November 3rd.
Thank you for the encouragement and for supporting someone so far from your state. Yes, I think she is an outstanding candidate.
You’re welcome, Ginger Sox. I am glad to support progressive candidates around the country. They need all the financial help we can give them. 💙
(some of this I posed yesterday)
I for one am disappointed but not surprised by Hong's extremely narrow loss, given the barrage of media reports about a tweet from five years ago. But all my family in Wisconsin will be supporting and voting for Crowley for sure, even though they all voted for Hong.
I hope WI voters are right! Maybe it is for the best to not nominate Hong, we will see. Crowley has not received anything remotely close to the intense media scrutiny that Hong has had. He has a decent track record in most respects in Milwaukee but for sure Tiffany will be talking about Milwaukee's budget woes nonstop. This race ended up being essentially Hong vs not Hong. I would wager barely anyone in this thread knows much him.
Crowley has his own social media missteps which are mentioned in the article Rubin linked yesterday, but that overall have barely been mentioned in recent reporting. They are old but many are far more obnoxious and there are lots more of them than the handful of Hong's tweets that have been front page news for weeks. Crowley's excuse that multiple people used the account is really weak. Personally I couldn't care less about any of them, but no doubt the WI GOP will care and we will hear more about them.
On at least one actually important issue in Wisconsin, he is far out of step with the wide majority of Wisconsin voters and with Hong's position - the proliferation of data centers. This has received next to no coverage, due to the nonstop focus on Hong's inconsequential tweets.
Surveys in Wisconsin going back a year show anywhere from 70 to 80% of people there being firmly against the building of any new data centers. This is bipartisan and should be a slam dunk issue for Democrats. Instead, Crowley has publicly supported building more data centers and has only offered meek regulations. Hong, by contrast, has fully support a statewide moratorium. Contrary to everything we constantly hear, Hong's position is the 'mainstream' one, Crowley's is the outlier. His tepid stance on wealth tax is also not in line with the Democratic base.
When Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race, he specifically called out 'special interests and political insiders making backroom deals' when asked about the re-entrance of Crowley into the race. Governor Evers's endorsement of Crowley was a highly unusual move, especially since he passed over his own lieutenant governor Barnes . The fact that it took the entire Democratic establishment of Wisconsin, let alone an avalanche of negative reporting about Hong, for Crowley to just barely win with less than 40% of the vote is a bit worrying IMO.
All that said, I truly hope he does win! I have read that him and Hong are already planning campaign stops together, so that's a good thing. Overall they agree far more than they disagree.
Thanks for the report. Even if the national press did a better job of providing these details, it is only the locals and the local press who actually have the depth of knowledge about local political dynamics. That's why the national press is always surprised at outcomes in primaries. It is just imposing its horse-race narrative on a couple of issues which may or may not be what's motivating primary voters.
I just posted another comment about polling. I'd add people were surprised because they are only looking at primary polls, which historically had a really wide range of accuracy for primary races. G. Elliot Morris had a good piece about this earlier this week. The polling for the Flanagan /Craig race was just as inaccurate as for Hong/Crowley, but in the other direction.
I read Morris's article. I'm really loving the stuff I can get here on Substack. I'm in Texas. Since our primaries are over and we've been in general campaign mode since Spring, we're getting polls for the general election. The trend is moving toward Democrats ever so fragilely. But, I don't accept that as indicating anything other than voter displeasure with thirty years of one-party Republican power. (Yep, they are the dog that caught the car.)
As with anywhere in this country, the real thing to watch is the political ability of the Democratic candidates and their ability to ignite and rally voters. In Texas, Republican candidates are starting land with a thud as Talarico, Hinojosa and all the other talented candidates start "floating like a butterfly and stinging like a bee". Anyway, I digress.
We area all reading about Texas of course and rooting for Talarico (I was born there btw)! I think the only moral is, to read primary polling, and all polling really, with skepticism, and to never take your foot off the gas, or get discouraged, by polling.
Makes sense that in this day and age it would be more challenging to poll. Who answers their phone when its an unknown caller?
💯 💙
"The better candidate with the clearest message tends to win.". Hoping all Democratic candidates are paying attention to this. As I have mentioned before, we need to ditch the labels and focus on the message. In spite of the downer view of the SC senate race, hoping this will prove true, and Annie Andrews will surprise all!
Vermonter Amanda Janoo, a young economist beat her rival to face Republican Governor Phil Scott in November. Scott has been popular, but less so now in the years since Covid for vetoing too many bipartisan bills.