Thank you. I’m trying to spread a thought. If we could get enough people to make a small donation each to whoever runs against little Mikey Johnson in Louisiana for 2026 and get him out that would be a great help I think.!
Your third point is very important as we move into local elections here in NC while the state govt tries to create another GOP district. You have to defeat the bullies at home first!
Thank you for the rallying cry, but I'm concerned that there is more than a drop of white privilege in your description of the limits of the takeover. Black and brown people already feel the heavy hand of the despot in their daily lives.
Why Small Percentages Make a Big Difference in Political Expression
Even small percentages of a population can have a profound impact on political expression and change. A notable example is the early momentum gained by the Tea Party Movement from grassroots protests in April 2009. This demonstrates how even a relatively modest proportion of engaged citizens can shift the political landscape.
Theoretical Foundations: The 3.5% Rule and Diffusion of Innovations
Everett Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory provides a framework for understanding how new ideas and movements spread throughout a population. This theory supports Erica Chenoweth's 3.5% rule for effective civil protests. The 3.5% rule posits that no government can withstand a nonviolent challenge from just 3.5% of its population, a conclusion drawn from examining hundreds of civil resistance campaigns in the 20th and early 21st centuries.
Early Adopters and Their Influence
The early adopter theory is a central element of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations. It explains that early adopters are the second group to embrace new innovations, immediately following the innovators. These individuals are influential and play a crucial role in generating the momentum needed for an idea to gain broader acceptance within society.
In the context of the No Kings protests, the first 2.5% of participants (approximately 9 million people) are typically willing to take risks and tolerate inconvenience. Once participation reaches 3.5%, the movement begins to penetrate the early adopter segment. Early adopters are respected opinion leaders and discerning visionaries within their social and professional circles. Their endorsement is vital for convincing the next, larger group to join the cause.
The Adoption Curve: How Ideas Spread
The adoption of any idea is a gradual and segmented process, typically illustrated by a bell-shaped curve. This model classifies consumers into five categories based on their readiness to adopt:
• Innovators (2.5%): The first to adopt new ideas, willing to take risks and accept inconvenience.
• Early Adopters (13.5%): Visionary opinion leaders whose approval is crucial for influencing the broader population.
• Early Majority (34%): More pragmatic and risk-averse, they wait for validation from others before adopting.
• Late Majority (34%): Skeptical and cautious, adopting only after the majority has done so, motivated by societal and economic pressures.
• Laggards (16%): The last to adopt, typically resistant to change and only do so when the old way is no longer viable.
Distinct Characteristics of Early Adopters:
• Opinion Leaders: Their influence and social networks help generate vital buzz through word-of-mouth.
• Risk-Takers: Willing to accept imperfections for the benefit of early access.
• Financially Sound: Often possess the disposable income necessary for early adoption.
• Inquisitive: Actively seek out and research new ideas to gain a competitive or social edge.
• Goal-Oriented: Adopt innovations to solve specific problems, increase efficiency, or improve their work—not just for novelty.
The Role of Early Adopters in Movement Success
• Validation and Feedback: Early adopters provide real-world feedback that allows organizers to refine their message for a broader audience.
• Market Bridge: They help bridge the gap between niche support and mass-market appeal, enabling movements to cross the "chasm."
• Early Marketing: Their endorsements create credible social proof that reassures more cautious potential supporters.
• Momentum Generation: Their enthusiasm and influence can spark a self-sustaining following.
Strategies for Engaging Early Adopters
• Incentivize Access: Offer benefits like "early access" to reward their willingness to take risks.
• Seek Feedback: Actively invite their opinions and demonstrate that their input is valued in shaping the movement.
• Build Community: Create exclusive forums or groups for early adopters to share experiences and support each other.
• Use Targeted Messaging: Focus on the movement's vision and transformative potential, using social media rather than mass-market advertising, which may not resonate with this group.
Still grumpy (don't want to use the word depressed) after reading this post meant to show the glass half full. My pessimistic take is that 7-8 million protestors weren't rounded up and put in jail in full blown authoritarian takeover because it was just too difficult a task. Not that there wasn't a will to jail protestors after calling protestors "evil", Hamas proxies, "Antifa", haters of America, and on and on.
Meanwhile, the Ninth Circuit has give the go ahead to militarize our cities and any contrary opinions (like the one from the Seventh Circuit) are likely to be resolved by the SC in favor of Trump militarizing any city in the country. Looks like easy run around Posse Comitatus and Insurrection Act.
I know it's now an overused metaphor, but democracy feels like the East Wing of the White House. Democracy powerless to stop the demolition.
I latch onto any action I can take to defend democracy. I am not giving up. But am I feeling better, optimistic, positive. Not by a long shot.
First, deterrence is still possible. Democrats should make clear what they will do when they regain power to investigate and prosecute those who break the law today.
I'd tread carefully with that. Look at Don the Con-- the fact that he's not just vocalizing that the people who brought him to justice, or who opposed him, should be sent to jail, rather, he's blowing a foghorn so loud you can hear it 20 miles out to sea! And his statements are giving the people he's persecuting ammunition to go to court and make a good case for malicious prosecution! I wouldn't be surprised if some judge makes the DOJ pay some of those falsely accused people's legal fees and seeks professional sanctions against the DOJ lawyers who filed the motions. All because Don the Con can't keep his mouth shut!
So I don't know that taking the same course, or at least telegraphing your intention to take that same course, is the best way to win elections. Promising to give the Cabinet departments a giant enema to flush out all of Don the Con's sycophants will definitely rev up the base, but it will alienate the vast middle who are winnable but who don't live and die following politics. The last thing they want to see is a bunch of prosecutions every time the White House changes hands.
I'm not saying that there shouldn't be mass prosecution of those people who were "just following orders" (it didn't work as a defense in Nuremberg and won't work now). People who broke the law should be punished. But I am saying that broadcasting it loudly in advance is going to alienate at least as many voters as it inspires.
Thank you for pointing out the difference in what could happen in a full dictatorship as a response to the No Kings 2nd protests compared to now. I fear what might happen based on the crumbling of our federal offices and agencies, etc. And, yes, we need to get out the vote much more. Help others see that most of our current Republican Congresspeople are sharing a complete lack of responsibility and care for people other than the wealthiest. Keep in mind the same about our local and state elected and appointed officials. (Trump is trying to reduce the populace by one third, so he sees no reason for health care....)
thank you... thoughtful and helpful., Jonathan Cohen, Ph.D.
Thank you. I’m trying to spread a thought. If we could get enough people to make a small donation each to whoever runs against little Mikey Johnson in Louisiana for 2026 and get him out that would be a great help I think.!
Your third point is very important as we move into local elections here in NC while the state govt tries to create another GOP district. You have to defeat the bullies at home first!
This made me feel better. Thank you.
Never give up resisting bullies
Thank you for the rallying cry, but I'm concerned that there is more than a drop of white privilege in your description of the limits of the takeover. Black and brown people already feel the heavy hand of the despot in their daily lives.
Well said. I always appreciate the thoughtful, experienced insights from Tom Malinowski.
Why Small Percentages Make a Big Difference in Political Expression
Even small percentages of a population can have a profound impact on political expression and change. A notable example is the early momentum gained by the Tea Party Movement from grassroots protests in April 2009. This demonstrates how even a relatively modest proportion of engaged citizens can shift the political landscape.
Theoretical Foundations: The 3.5% Rule and Diffusion of Innovations
Everett Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory provides a framework for understanding how new ideas and movements spread throughout a population. This theory supports Erica Chenoweth's 3.5% rule for effective civil protests. The 3.5% rule posits that no government can withstand a nonviolent challenge from just 3.5% of its population, a conclusion drawn from examining hundreds of civil resistance campaigns in the 20th and early 21st centuries.
Early Adopters and Their Influence
The early adopter theory is a central element of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations. It explains that early adopters are the second group to embrace new innovations, immediately following the innovators. These individuals are influential and play a crucial role in generating the momentum needed for an idea to gain broader acceptance within society.
In the context of the No Kings protests, the first 2.5% of participants (approximately 9 million people) are typically willing to take risks and tolerate inconvenience. Once participation reaches 3.5%, the movement begins to penetrate the early adopter segment. Early adopters are respected opinion leaders and discerning visionaries within their social and professional circles. Their endorsement is vital for convincing the next, larger group to join the cause.
The Adoption Curve: How Ideas Spread
The adoption of any idea is a gradual and segmented process, typically illustrated by a bell-shaped curve. This model classifies consumers into five categories based on their readiness to adopt:
• Innovators (2.5%): The first to adopt new ideas, willing to take risks and accept inconvenience.
• Early Adopters (13.5%): Visionary opinion leaders whose approval is crucial for influencing the broader population.
• Early Majority (34%): More pragmatic and risk-averse, they wait for validation from others before adopting.
• Late Majority (34%): Skeptical and cautious, adopting only after the majority has done so, motivated by societal and economic pressures.
• Laggards (16%): The last to adopt, typically resistant to change and only do so when the old way is no longer viable.
Distinct Characteristics of Early Adopters:
• Opinion Leaders: Their influence and social networks help generate vital buzz through word-of-mouth.
• Risk-Takers: Willing to accept imperfections for the benefit of early access.
• Financially Sound: Often possess the disposable income necessary for early adoption.
• Inquisitive: Actively seek out and research new ideas to gain a competitive or social edge.
• Goal-Oriented: Adopt innovations to solve specific problems, increase efficiency, or improve their work—not just for novelty.
The Role of Early Adopters in Movement Success
• Validation and Feedback: Early adopters provide real-world feedback that allows organizers to refine their message for a broader audience.
• Market Bridge: They help bridge the gap between niche support and mass-market appeal, enabling movements to cross the "chasm."
• Early Marketing: Their endorsements create credible social proof that reassures more cautious potential supporters.
• Momentum Generation: Their enthusiasm and influence can spark a self-sustaining following.
Strategies for Engaging Early Adopters
• Incentivize Access: Offer benefits like "early access" to reward their willingness to take risks.
• Seek Feedback: Actively invite their opinions and demonstrate that their input is valued in shaping the movement.
• Build Community: Create exclusive forums or groups for early adopters to share experiences and support each other.
• Use Targeted Messaging: Focus on the movement's vision and transformative potential, using social media rather than mass-market advertising, which may not resonate with this group.
Beautiful.
You’ve suggested some frightening scenarios that hadn’t yet occurred to me. I will try to dwell on the optimistic portions of this piece.
Still grumpy (don't want to use the word depressed) after reading this post meant to show the glass half full. My pessimistic take is that 7-8 million protestors weren't rounded up and put in jail in full blown authoritarian takeover because it was just too difficult a task. Not that there wasn't a will to jail protestors after calling protestors "evil", Hamas proxies, "Antifa", haters of America, and on and on.
Meanwhile, the Ninth Circuit has give the go ahead to militarize our cities and any contrary opinions (like the one from the Seventh Circuit) are likely to be resolved by the SC in favor of Trump militarizing any city in the country. Looks like easy run around Posse Comitatus and Insurrection Act.
I know it's now an overused metaphor, but democracy feels like the East Wing of the White House. Democracy powerless to stop the demolition.
I latch onto any action I can take to defend democracy. I am not giving up. But am I feeling better, optimistic, positive. Not by a long shot.
Yes , helpful
But elections??? How to regain some control if the regime has infiltrated regulatory/ oversight personnel from his 2020 steal comrades.
Gerrymandering, no mail in ballots, military on the ground to scare of voters and “help” secure ballots
What can we do?
First, deterrence is still possible. Democrats should make clear what they will do when they regain power to investigate and prosecute those who break the law today.
I'd tread carefully with that. Look at Don the Con-- the fact that he's not just vocalizing that the people who brought him to justice, or who opposed him, should be sent to jail, rather, he's blowing a foghorn so loud you can hear it 20 miles out to sea! And his statements are giving the people he's persecuting ammunition to go to court and make a good case for malicious prosecution! I wouldn't be surprised if some judge makes the DOJ pay some of those falsely accused people's legal fees and seeks professional sanctions against the DOJ lawyers who filed the motions. All because Don the Con can't keep his mouth shut!
So I don't know that taking the same course, or at least telegraphing your intention to take that same course, is the best way to win elections. Promising to give the Cabinet departments a giant enema to flush out all of Don the Con's sycophants will definitely rev up the base, but it will alienate the vast middle who are winnable but who don't live and die following politics. The last thing they want to see is a bunch of prosecutions every time the White House changes hands.
I'm not saying that there shouldn't be mass prosecution of those people who were "just following orders" (it didn't work as a defense in Nuremberg and won't work now). People who broke the law should be punished. But I am saying that broadcasting it loudly in advance is going to alienate at least as many voters as it inspires.
Thank you for pointing out the difference in what could happen in a full dictatorship as a response to the No Kings 2nd protests compared to now. I fear what might happen based on the crumbling of our federal offices and agencies, etc. And, yes, we need to get out the vote much more. Help others see that most of our current Republican Congresspeople are sharing a complete lack of responsibility and care for people other than the wealthiest. Keep in mind the same about our local and state elected and appointed officials. (Trump is trying to reduce the populace by one third, so he sees no reason for health care....)