I believe that public opinion polls are truly of limited value, and it's what I used to do for a living!
Read the Republicans' hips, not their lips. They don't really care about the results in November for some reason. Now what could that be? Why aren't they trying to sway people with their arguments?
Could it be that they will preempt the voting somehow if they lose? That's the real danger. It could definitely happen here, don't kid yourself.
Exactly right! Trump is already rewarding his private militia (his convicted, pardoned Jan. 6th goons) and Pete Hegseth is in charge of the American armed forces. Why would he worry about popularity? What is the Democratic plan for Jan. 6- 2.0? I sure hope there’s a good one.
I agree that polls can be of limited value in predictability, but they do provide some insight into the direction of popular opinion. This is particularly true in political polls in terms of the trend they reveal when taken over time.
And the trend of public opinion for this cabal of characters is clearly one of diminishing support for the corruption and illegal activities of high-level U.S. goverment officials in general, and of The Con in particular.
I also believe that the complacency of Con-appointed Republicans and Congressional leaders stems from their belief that they have been told directly or indirectly by The Con they will be pardoned for their actions regardless of what they do. They are proceeding on that basis but will be surprised when some of them fail to receive that "Get out of Jail Free card" once The Con feels they are no longer worthy.
That worthiness will be measured on how they vote on the question of impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate.
I think some GOP elected representatives (senate &House) especially in very safe seats don’t really want the actual burdens of governing. Some prefer to be in the minority, to gum up procedural votes, throw bombs, appear on Fox, all while collecting the perks, etc. That’s their safe, happy place. Others may be planning their exits to lucrative corporate board seats or runs for governorships or for runs for the presidency in 2028 or 2032. There’s also the matter of legacy. Some who are quietly planning an exit after the midterms may be thinking hard about votes they’ll be taking. Will they be asking themselves want to be remembered for confirming Todd Blanche? I think that will give some of them pause.
The lame media decided to make a "thing" out of the DNC's lack of money. I can suggest a reason why the DNC doesn't have money: I'm giving money DIRECTLY to the candidates who evince my values, and so are my friends. We are not trusting the DNC to apportion it to our liking. Same with all of you? I may be supporting people who "cannot win" (so THEY say) but I'm not supporting weaklings bowing to the corporate agenda anymore. And yes, it is too early for a national Dem platform. We need to win individual districts and states where candidates need to have different platforms to win. A national agenda at this point would be political suicide. There's a good reason the mainstream media is lame.
My husband and I are doing the same thing, Thomas, and so are all of our friends. We haven't supported the DNC for years. They are completely out of touch.
Thank you @Jennifer Rubin for being the light in our current darkness called government. Your words ring true and are always so eloquently stated. Thanks for being a warrior for democracy!!
"The best news of all for Democrats: Trump refuses to deviate from his losing message."
Trump's latest vanity stunt against affordability is the ordering of 250 Cadillac Escalades for the presidential fleet claiming that they (and he) will "look wonderful" in them. SUVs that cost in the range of $70,000.00 are going to be up-fitted with security features, bringing the cost per vehicle to around $300,000.00 (according to The Guardian article today).
The average age for personally owned cars in this country is 14.5 years. Is this a reflection of the affordability problem?
I'm afraid this a clear indication that Trjmp now believes he can do anything he chooses. No one Congress will do anything that will affect *their* situation. The Supreme Court is a roller coaster, sometimes opposing the president and too frequently agreeing to his specious claims. The only real guardrail left is the Federal Court system. All it takes to make our system of government work is honorable leaders and representatives. They seem to be few and far between these days.
While you may be right that Democrats don’t need to broadcast a detailed agenda before the election, they’d better have one and be seen to be moving at speed to implement it ASAP after winning. We will have about a year to prove to voters that Dems can govern effectively before the 2028 campaign really gets rolling. If we end up looking just as ineffective as Republicans, that’s going to really suck. For what it’s worth, banning gerrymandering before 2030 needs to be done, too. Having fair elections that aren’t pre-rigged would be a great goal.
I love you but if you’re worried about internecine warfare among Dems maybe you could drop the “whining” charge. An awful lot of positive programming and messaging has come from the progressive wing of the party and many many solutions. The party needs a big tent and focus on the common danger.
I disagree as to whether or not the Democrats need to get specific on their "platform". I would submit that Trump, a man without experience, basic ethical understandings, and virtually no "platform", won because of a significant revolt among working middle class voters over their long term decline in wealth and income (which seeps into virtually every aspect of their life whether it be health care, education, housing, and even the price of food). The current "favorability" rankings of both GOP and Democratic legislators sits at around 58% unfavorable. Trump's platform, if there was any, was simply to destroy the existing bureaucracy whereas the Democratic platform sounded like "more of the same".
What I would do is align Democratic priorities with the Declaration of Independence and Constitution. Quite simply, how does a person enjoy "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" if they can't pay their bills, get sick or don't have the money available for training in new technologies? They can't and you can't expect them to be particularly loyal to a government or party they feel has failed them.
Given the shortness of time and the fact that cooperation among the different elements of the Democratic party is essential, as this comment states, the best that can be done is convene both sides of the party to formulate basic priorities they can agree on, hire a great marketing firm to gather these parties together in brief ads, and the make sure the ads are placed where hearts and minds have some chance of being changed.
The voters need a promise of hope and change, the two things that enabled the first Black man to become president. That much ought to be obvious to political leadership.
I follow your argument (that Trump is failing) but still worry that significant numbers of voters don't care. Just yesterday I was conversing with a MAGA man about a topic unrelated to politics or policy, and he threw in a comment about an actor who has Trump Derangement Syndrome. His comment wasn't just unrelated, unsolicited, and unappreciated - it was an indication that for MAGA people, the devotion to their new Savior is always front and center, always present, even when no-one is trying to convince them of anything. They will vote for him because in their nihilism they only see a blinding white light, not his corruption, his nastiness, childishness, and incompetence.
Yes, the hardcore will continue to vote for him, but elections are decided by turnout and independents. Those numbers in recent polling suggest he's lost so-called swing voters, and other polls indicate enthusiasm to vote is highest among Democrats.
Good points. I think the best way to win independents is to demonstrate (and if necessary, perform) competence. None of the culture war issues or arguments about you-know-who's corruption seem to resonate as strongly as just plain adult attitude and behavior.
It's pretty hard to change the mind of someone who thinks the Earth is flat, there is no climate change while the Earth is on fire or drowning and agent orange face is doing a good job. There are those people that are either unable to think critically or just won't.
Right. They don't and won't think critically because they're exhausted with all the bad news thrown at them all day and every day - they've given up their agency to their Savior.
This column underscores why I became a Contrarian charter member. As Substack has proven, readers follow WRITERS, not necessarily the publications they wrote for. So when those writers realize this and create their own platforms, they have the freedom to blast away, and they make a ton more money. As Jen makes clear in this piece, legacy media is a hopeless relic guided by rote, and unable to pivot when the times are clearly changing. And for whatever reason, perhaps it's so they can keep their credentials to the White House, they aren't hammering away at Trump as they did with Biden. Jen, Norm, and all their partners in this venture are great journalists and communicators, but much more importantly, they are truth-telling patriots.
E Pluribus Unum means we all must be engaged to resist the fascism of Regime Leader Trump, MAGA, and the Epstein Class. Otherwise the motto will be “Gens Mea, Imperium Meum, “My Nation, My rule.”
Really nice to read something upbeat for a change. My wife and I both have marveled at Republican’s insistence on backing an obvious loser. Only Senators who are retiring show even a modicum of courage in not falling 100% into line for a pedophile, rapist, misogynist, thief. And they like to pose as the party of family values and Christian guidance. Wow! Thank you Jennifer for today’s post!
While I really hate to disparage this animal, snakes have spines. Most snakes are harmless to humans but the poisonous snakes that exist in Washington I would never turn my back on. Including Tillis and Cronyn. I personally think that republicans are the "brood of vipers" Jesus was talking about.
"[Democrats] will need to avoid counterproductive internecine fights, work assiduously to turn out voters (including independents and persuadable Republicans), prepare for Trump’s reckless attacks on election workers and fake fraud claims, steel themselves for the inevitable attack ads, and make smart decisions down the stretch about where to put scarce dollars."
To accomplish these things we will need an effective DNC chair. We currently do not have that. Please help us advocate for this important change. It's not too late.
Jen, you’re reading those Republicans loud and clear!!! And you know exactly how to explain it to them!! Sure hope they heed your words and the need to work hard before they lose everything! ! ! ! Trump is gaining so much money for him and his family, the Republicans themselves will have to cough some up to keep us going right now!! This is why you don’t wait for the Supreme Court ! You take an unprecedented situation and deal with it early on!!! You don’t allow your party to have a convicted Felon to run for President of the United States of America!!! Anybody in their right mind would never have allowed this to happen!!!
I doubt it. The American electorate has shown itself to be pretty willing to look for ANY excuse not to vote for Democrats. tRump and his tRumplicans will come up with some effective fear tactic at the last minute to convince these voters to vote for the status quo. Twas this way since Nixon and the Southern Strategy. tRump is just more crude and completely amoral.
Joe Biden was elected when he ran against Trump. Harris came close. Plenty of people have been voting for Democrats since Trump came into office.
And what fear tactic can overpower their own experience? Of what's happening in their lives every time they buy gas and groceries, for instance. Millions have lost health insurance. The Trump admin is going to raise Medicare costs for seniors. AARP is going to be all over that one!
I believe that public opinion polls are truly of limited value, and it's what I used to do for a living!
Read the Republicans' hips, not their lips. They don't really care about the results in November for some reason. Now what could that be? Why aren't they trying to sway people with their arguments?
Could it be that they will preempt the voting somehow if they lose? That's the real danger. It could definitely happen here, don't kid yourself.
Exactly right! Trump is already rewarding his private militia (his convicted, pardoned Jan. 6th goons) and Pete Hegseth is in charge of the American armed forces. Why would he worry about popularity? What is the Democratic plan for Jan. 6- 2.0? I sure hope there’s a good one.
I agree that polls can be of limited value in predictability, but they do provide some insight into the direction of popular opinion. This is particularly true in political polls in terms of the trend they reveal when taken over time.
And the trend of public opinion for this cabal of characters is clearly one of diminishing support for the corruption and illegal activities of high-level U.S. goverment officials in general, and of The Con in particular.
I also believe that the complacency of Con-appointed Republicans and Congressional leaders stems from their belief that they have been told directly or indirectly by The Con they will be pardoned for their actions regardless of what they do. They are proceeding on that basis but will be surprised when some of them fail to receive that "Get out of Jail Free card" once The Con feels they are no longer worthy.
That worthiness will be measured on how they vote on the question of impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate.
I think some GOP elected representatives (senate &House) especially in very safe seats don’t really want the actual burdens of governing. Some prefer to be in the minority, to gum up procedural votes, throw bombs, appear on Fox, all while collecting the perks, etc. That’s their safe, happy place. Others may be planning their exits to lucrative corporate board seats or runs for governorships or for runs for the presidency in 2028 or 2032. There’s also the matter of legacy. Some who are quietly planning an exit after the midterms may be thinking hard about votes they’ll be taking. Will they be asking themselves want to be remembered for confirming Todd Blanche? I think that will give some of them pause.
The lame media decided to make a "thing" out of the DNC's lack of money. I can suggest a reason why the DNC doesn't have money: I'm giving money DIRECTLY to the candidates who evince my values, and so are my friends. We are not trusting the DNC to apportion it to our liking. Same with all of you? I may be supporting people who "cannot win" (so THEY say) but I'm not supporting weaklings bowing to the corporate agenda anymore. And yes, it is too early for a national Dem platform. We need to win individual districts and states where candidates need to have different platforms to win. A national agenda at this point would be political suicide. There's a good reason the mainstream media is lame.
My husband and I are doing the same thing, Thomas, and so are all of our friends. We haven't supported the DNC for years. They are completely out of touch.
Hear, Hear!
Thank you @Jennifer Rubin for being the light in our current darkness called government. Your words ring true and are always so eloquently stated. Thanks for being a warrior for democracy!!
"The best news of all for Democrats: Trump refuses to deviate from his losing message."
Trump's latest vanity stunt against affordability is the ordering of 250 Cadillac Escalades for the presidential fleet claiming that they (and he) will "look wonderful" in them. SUVs that cost in the range of $70,000.00 are going to be up-fitted with security features, bringing the cost per vehicle to around $300,000.00 (according to The Guardian article today).
The average age for personally owned cars in this country is 14.5 years. Is this a reflection of the affordability problem?
I'm afraid this a clear indication that Trjmp now believes he can do anything he chooses. No one Congress will do anything that will affect *their* situation. The Supreme Court is a roller coaster, sometimes opposing the president and too frequently agreeing to his specious claims. The only real guardrail left is the Federal Court system. All it takes to make our system of government work is honorable leaders and representatives. They seem to be few and far between these days.
Good grief, Steve. Another $75 million of the people’s hard-earned taxpayer money out the window. The felon is bankrupting us.😖
While you may be right that Democrats don’t need to broadcast a detailed agenda before the election, they’d better have one and be seen to be moving at speed to implement it ASAP after winning. We will have about a year to prove to voters that Dems can govern effectively before the 2028 campaign really gets rolling. If we end up looking just as ineffective as Republicans, that’s going to really suck. For what it’s worth, banning gerrymandering before 2030 needs to be done, too. Having fair elections that aren’t pre-rigged would be a great goal.
I love you but if you’re worried about internecine warfare among Dems maybe you could drop the “whining” charge. An awful lot of positive programming and messaging has come from the progressive wing of the party and many many solutions. The party needs a big tent and focus on the common danger.
I disagree as to whether or not the Democrats need to get specific on their "platform". I would submit that Trump, a man without experience, basic ethical understandings, and virtually no "platform", won because of a significant revolt among working middle class voters over their long term decline in wealth and income (which seeps into virtually every aspect of their life whether it be health care, education, housing, and even the price of food). The current "favorability" rankings of both GOP and Democratic legislators sits at around 58% unfavorable. Trump's platform, if there was any, was simply to destroy the existing bureaucracy whereas the Democratic platform sounded like "more of the same".
What I would do is align Democratic priorities with the Declaration of Independence and Constitution. Quite simply, how does a person enjoy "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" if they can't pay their bills, get sick or don't have the money available for training in new technologies? They can't and you can't expect them to be particularly loyal to a government or party they feel has failed them.
Given the shortness of time and the fact that cooperation among the different elements of the Democratic party is essential, as this comment states, the best that can be done is convene both sides of the party to formulate basic priorities they can agree on, hire a great marketing firm to gather these parties together in brief ads, and the make sure the ads are placed where hearts and minds have some chance of being changed.
The voters need a promise of hope and change, the two things that enabled the first Black man to become president. That much ought to be obvious to political leadership.
I follow your argument (that Trump is failing) but still worry that significant numbers of voters don't care. Just yesterday I was conversing with a MAGA man about a topic unrelated to politics or policy, and he threw in a comment about an actor who has Trump Derangement Syndrome. His comment wasn't just unrelated, unsolicited, and unappreciated - it was an indication that for MAGA people, the devotion to their new Savior is always front and center, always present, even when no-one is trying to convince them of anything. They will vote for him because in their nihilism they only see a blinding white light, not his corruption, his nastiness, childishness, and incompetence.
Yes, the hardcore will continue to vote for him, but elections are decided by turnout and independents. Those numbers in recent polling suggest he's lost so-called swing voters, and other polls indicate enthusiasm to vote is highest among Democrats.
Good points. I think the best way to win independents is to demonstrate (and if necessary, perform) competence. None of the culture war issues or arguments about you-know-who's corruption seem to resonate as strongly as just plain adult attitude and behavior.
It's pretty hard to change the mind of someone who thinks the Earth is flat, there is no climate change while the Earth is on fire or drowning and agent orange face is doing a good job. There are those people that are either unable to think critically or just won't.
Right. They don't and won't think critically because they're exhausted with all the bad news thrown at them all day and every day - they've given up their agency to their Savior.
A clear justification for Democrats campaigning on a pro-democracy agenda.
This column underscores why I became a Contrarian charter member. As Substack has proven, readers follow WRITERS, not necessarily the publications they wrote for. So when those writers realize this and create their own platforms, they have the freedom to blast away, and they make a ton more money. As Jen makes clear in this piece, legacy media is a hopeless relic guided by rote, and unable to pivot when the times are clearly changing. And for whatever reason, perhaps it's so they can keep their credentials to the White House, they aren't hammering away at Trump as they did with Biden. Jen, Norm, and all their partners in this venture are great journalists and communicators, but much more importantly, they are truth-telling patriots.
"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.”
Senator Lindsay Graham on Donald Trump - Instagram post 2016.
E Pluribus Unum means we all must be engaged to resist the fascism of Regime Leader Trump, MAGA, and the Epstein Class. Otherwise the motto will be “Gens Mea, Imperium Meum, “My Nation, My rule.”
Really nice to read something upbeat for a change. My wife and I both have marveled at Republican’s insistence on backing an obvious loser. Only Senators who are retiring show even a modicum of courage in not falling 100% into line for a pedophile, rapist, misogynist, thief. And they like to pose as the party of family values and Christian guidance. Wow! Thank you Jennifer for today’s post!
Barely a "modicum" of courage. The lack of principles or spines is one of the most revolting realities of the Trump era.
While I really hate to disparage this animal, snakes have spines. Most snakes are harmless to humans but the poisonous snakes that exist in Washington I would never turn my back on. Including Tillis and Cronyn. I personally think that republicans are the "brood of vipers" Jesus was talking about.
Yes Ms Rubin:
"[Democrats] will need to avoid counterproductive internecine fights, work assiduously to turn out voters (including independents and persuadable Republicans), prepare for Trump’s reckless attacks on election workers and fake fraud claims, steel themselves for the inevitable attack ads, and make smart decisions down the stretch about where to put scarce dollars."
To accomplish these things we will need an effective DNC chair. We currently do not have that. Please help us advocate for this important change. It's not too late.
Jen, you’re reading those Republicans loud and clear!!! And you know exactly how to explain it to them!! Sure hope they heed your words and the need to work hard before they lose everything! ! ! ! Trump is gaining so much money for him and his family, the Republicans themselves will have to cough some up to keep us going right now!! This is why you don’t wait for the Supreme Court ! You take an unprecedented situation and deal with it early on!!! You don’t allow your party to have a convicted Felon to run for President of the United States of America!!! Anybody in their right mind would never have allowed this to happen!!!
I doubt it. The American electorate has shown itself to be pretty willing to look for ANY excuse not to vote for Democrats. tRump and his tRumplicans will come up with some effective fear tactic at the last minute to convince these voters to vote for the status quo. Twas this way since Nixon and the Southern Strategy. tRump is just more crude and completely amoral.
Joe Biden was elected when he ran against Trump. Harris came close. Plenty of people have been voting for Democrats since Trump came into office.
And what fear tactic can overpower their own experience? Of what's happening in their lives every time they buy gas and groceries, for instance. Millions have lost health insurance. The Trump admin is going to raise Medicare costs for seniors. AARP is going to be all over that one!
https://www.npr.org/2026/07/29/nx-s1-5912039/the-trump-administrations-move-to-end-subsidies-for-medicare-drug-plans-could-cost-consumers