I believe that public opinion polls are truly of limited value, and it's what I used to do for a living!
Read the Republicans' hips, not their lips. They don't really care about the results in November for some reason. Now what could that be? Why aren't they trying to sway people with their arguments?
Could it be that they will preempt the voting somehow if they lose? That's the real danger. It could definitely happen here, don't kid yourself.
I think some GOP elected representatives (senate &House) especially in very safe seats don’t really want the actual burdens of governing. Some prefer to be in the minority, to gum up procedural votes, throw bombs, appear on Fox, all while collecting the perks, etc. That’s their safe, happy place. Others may be planning their exits to lucrative corporate board seats or runs for governorships or for runs for the presidency in 2028 or 2032. There’s also the matter of legacy. Some who are quietly planning an exit after the midterms may be thinking hard about votes they’ll be taking. Will they be asking themselves want to be remembered for confirming Todd Blanche? I think that will give some of them pause.
Thank you, Jen Rubin, for your strong, clear, consistent voice of reason and reality. Let’s stop fretting and get to work supporting any and all Dems wherever we are. When the primaries are over unity is our mission.
I agree that polls can be of limited value in predictability, but they do provide some insight into the direction of popular opinion. This is particularly true in political polls in terms of the trend they reveal when taken over time.
And the trend of public opinion for this cabal of characters is clearly one of diminishing support for the corruption and illegal activities of high-level U.S. goverment officials in general, and of The Con in particular.
I also believe that the complacency of Con-appointed Republicans and Congressional leaders stems from their belief that they have been told directly or indirectly by The Con they will be pardoned for their actions regardless of what they do. They are proceeding on that basis but will be surprised when some of them fail to receive that "Get out of Jail Free card" once The Con feels they are no longer worthy.
That worthiness will be measured on how they vote on the question of impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate.
I agree, the polls have limited value. I can see here in central Pennsylvania that Trump is at least not very popular with all the folks that had Trump signs and flags flying until the beginning of this year. Now I am only seeing it from one of the most deluded supports and the crap has all disappeared from another that seemed to be equally deluded. It looks like Republicans will take a brutal beating in November simply because their loyal base is shrinking and not willing to vote blindly for people that get nothing done and have been ripping them off for years.
Yes, indeed. ICE showing up in voting booth will be a certainty. DEMS also need specific policy agenda for Affordability including (1)elimination of tarrifs, restoration of prescription support for Medicare recipients, and so on.
Sorry, but I believe that Trump will definitely employ ICE and/or the military to intimidate voters. Remember when black voters stood in line for 14 hours and then they closed the voting? I clearly remember that.
Remember? I was there! It was up to 5-6 hours in inner city Cleveland and Columbus and almost 12 hours on one liberal college campus (Kenyon). They did NOT "close the voting." By law if you are in line at 7:30 they have to let you vote. Kenyon cancelled classes and exams. I was at a polling place in 2006 with a long line at one precinct because they never got the full staff of voters they asked for. We were the for another hour and a half.
There was no military and no ICE (both of which are illegal to deploy to polling places, and they don't have the numbers or the maps to do this effectively). What our former Secretary of Voter Suppress... I mean STATE ... Ken Blackwell did was provide too few resources and workers but ONLY to inner city polling places — not to upscale suburbs.
This is a state issue. Trump doesn't have the plan, resources or legal authority to do this.
The lame media decided to make a "thing" out of the DNC's lack of money. I can suggest a reason why the DNC doesn't have money: I'm giving money DIRECTLY to the candidates who evince my values, and so are my friends. We are not trusting the DNC to apportion it to our liking. Same with all of you? I may be supporting people who "cannot win" (so THEY say) but I'm not supporting weaklings bowing to the corporate agenda anymore. And yes, it is too early for a national Dem platform. We need to win individual districts and states where candidates need to have different platforms to win. A national agenda at this point would be political suicide. There's a good reason the mainstream media is lame.
My husband and I are doing the same thing, Thomas, and so are all of our friends. We haven't supported the DNC for years. They are completely out of touch.
There's a reason for that. The DNC isn't really involved in this year's elections; it's more to support presidential elections. Its lack of money this year is almost completely irrelevant to everyone but the "mainstream" media.
Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing. I do not trust the DNC with Ken Martin at its helm to apportion the money to younger "squeaking wheels." Look how many Dem reps there are who are never heard from, while they're collecting their salaries, great benefits and the invariable extras.
Excuse me, but did you happen to notice the warning above: "They will need to avoid counterproductive internecine fights"? All I can hear/read in your above post is exactly that, a counterproductive internecine fight.
Have you actually followed the DNC? It hasn't tried to tell the world all that it's doing, so perhaps you don't actually have the stats. Apparently, the current DNC has been able to fundraise MORE THAN ANY OTHER DNC in the past. Now, you might claim that's a low bar. I don't, but you are welcome to your opinion.
And don't forget that part of what may look as though the DNC isn't doing enough to fundraise or that they don't have "enough" money is that the MAGA party is donating exponentially more than ever, so any other amount appears to be less than the usual.
That's false.
It's your money, for sure, and donating directly to individual candidates is absolutely up to you. But trying to convince every Dem that the DNC is a pile o' crapola is very definitely counterproductive and definitely a fight to make sure the DEMS lose.
I don't know about you, but that does NOT sound helpful to me.
Thank you @Jennifer Rubin for being the light in our current darkness called government. Your words ring true and are always so eloquently stated. Thanks for being a warrior for democracy!!
While you may be right that Democrats don’t need to broadcast a detailed agenda before the election, they’d better have one and be seen to be moving at speed to implement it ASAP after winning. We will have about a year to prove to voters that Dems can govern effectively before the 2028 campaign really gets rolling. If we end up looking just as ineffective as Republicans, that’s going to really suck. For what it’s worth, banning gerrymandering before 2030 needs to be done, too. Having fair elections that aren’t pre-rigged would be a great goal.
What you propose is only going to be aspirational unless Democrats can get super majorities to override all the vetoes that will be coming to thwart this agenda. I understand that the typical voter has no idea how government works and they will quickly blame the party that doesn't control all the power for their failures. The Dems need to focus on oversight and documenting all the criminal activity and advancing bills that will have the votes to override vetoes. It will take a Dem trifecta to ban gerrymandering and most of the agenda that we here at the Contrarian want to see implemented.
They have GOT to get something done besides confirming that Trump is a jerk. Everybody knows that, and “Trump is a jerk - vote for us!” is not a winning campaign in 2028 if 2027 produces nothing but oversight hearings. There should be some bipartisan ground to cover on cost of living reduction, and couched properly maybe even election reform that actually results in fair elections. Trump always wants something to claim credit for, so hire a couple of forensic shrinks and play him like a harmonica.
ScottD, this is the one place I disagreed with Rubin’s piece today. I am an independent voter (NPA) and I don’t find broad brushstrokes very convincing; we’ve heard them all before. I prefer comprehensive plans that can actually be enacted, not just dreams and visions. Elizabeth Warren did it well when she was running for Pres. More of that, please.
My usual standard is to require some notion of how the promises are going to be accomplished. For example, Trump kept yapping about “cutting gas prices in half!” Great! How are you going to do that? According to industry types, oil would have to go back to about $25 a barrel to get there. The US oil industry break-even point is about $65 a barrel. Think Chevron is going to flood the market to put themselves out of business? It was never going to happen, but TrumpChumps lapped it up. I don’t need a thousand-point plan from the Dems, but sanity-checked ideas would be welcome, with some kind of plausible way forward to follow, not just hot air and arm-waving.
I love you but if you’re worried about internecine warfare among Dems maybe you could drop the “whining” charge. An awful lot of positive programming and messaging has come from the progressive wing of the party and many many solutions. The party needs a big tent and focus on the common danger.
I don't get the "no Senate" thing. This is worth expanded energy for a constitutional amendment campaign? If we're going to go down that daunting road, I'd rather work on passing Move to Amend: "corporations are not people and money is not speech." That's the whole of it: it nukes Citizens United.
nobody serious even on the so-called left of the Democratic party advocates for those things. Not AOC, not Bernie, not Mamdani. Just as illusory as 'open borders', that nobody advocates.
It's also not representative of most DSA candidates, just one extremist wing of that movement. Sure, there are nut bags like Darialisa Avila Chevalier, but pragmatic, accomplished politicians such as Brad Lander also fall under the banner.
The distinction between the DSA and DSA candidates is not going to register with voters, and frankly, why should it? They're members of the organization and a massive portion of their political identity is being part of the DSA.
All politics are local. Most people don't care what banner a person embraces. They want to hear how themselves, personally, will benefit. People (other than billionaires) are fed up with this regime.
People like us who are highly focused on politics are not the average voter. Here's just a few positions the DSA has taken: abolish police, abolish prisons, lift sanctions on Iran (not for a nuclear deal or to reopen the strait of Hormuz, just lift them), take over large corporations and nationalize industries, etc. And this isn't just something they posted online, the National DSA co-chair went on Fox News and embraced these positions.
Right wing media and PACs have the next three months to carpet bomb the electorate with ads, influencers, and media so that "Democrat" becomes synonymous with those positions. Kind of like how "Defund the Police" was a PR disaster for Democrats in 2020.
I follow your argument (that Trump is failing) but still worry that significant numbers of voters don't care. Just yesterday I was conversing with a MAGA man about a topic unrelated to politics or policy, and he threw in a comment about an actor who has Trump Derangement Syndrome. His comment wasn't just unrelated, unsolicited, and unappreciated - it was an indication that for MAGA people, the devotion to their new Savior is always front and center, always present, even when no-one is trying to convince them of anything. They will vote for him because in their nihilism they only see a blinding white light, not his corruption, his nastiness, childishness, and incompetence.
Yes, the hardcore will continue to vote for him, but elections are decided by turnout and independents. Those numbers in recent polling suggest he's lost so-called swing voters, and other polls indicate enthusiasm to vote is highest among Democrats.
Good points. I think the best way to win independents is to demonstrate (and if necessary, perform) competence. None of the culture war issues or arguments about you-know-who's corruption seem to resonate as strongly as just plain adult attitude and behavior.
It's pretty hard to change the mind of someone who thinks the Earth is flat, there is no climate change while the Earth is on fire or drowning and agent orange face is doing a good job. There are those people that are either unable to think critically or just won't.
Right. They don't and won't think critically because they're exhausted with all the bad news thrown at them all day and every day - they've given up their agency to their Savior.
It would be interesting if he established a Church of Trump after he loses the elections. There is a lot of money to be made by a tax-free business model. I.e., mega-church. But his brain is failing fast. We shall see...
"The best news of all for Democrats: Trump refuses to deviate from his losing message."
Trump's latest vanity stunt against affordability is the ordering of 250 Cadillac Escalades for the presidential fleet claiming that they (and he) will "look wonderful" in them. SUVs that cost in the range of $70,000.00 are going to be up-fitted with security features, bringing the cost per vehicle to around $300,000.00 (according to The Guardian article today).
The average age for personally owned cars in this country is 14.5 years. Is this a reflection of the affordability problem?
I'm afraid this a clear indication that Trjmp now believes he can do anything he chooses. No one Congress will do anything that will affect *their* situation. The Supreme Court is a roller coaster, sometimes opposing the president and too frequently agreeing to his specious claims. The only real guardrail left is the Federal Court system. All it takes to make our system of government work is honorable leaders and representatives. They seem to be few and far between these days.
This column underscores why I became a Contrarian charter member. As Substack has proven, readers follow WRITERS, not necessarily the publications they wrote for. So when those writers realize this and create their own platforms, they have the freedom to blast away, and they make a ton more money. As Jen makes clear in this piece, legacy media is a hopeless relic guided by rote, and unable to pivot when the times are clearly changing. And for whatever reason, perhaps it's so they can keep their credentials to the White House, they aren't hammering away at Trump as they did with Biden. Jen, Norm, and all their partners in this venture are great journalists and communicators, but much more importantly, they are truth-telling patriots.
I would like a destroy the mainstream media. Just last week when I was at my sister's I was perusing her NY Times (yes, she still subscribes). One day they had a huge story on the front page about movies with collectible popcorn boxes, while burying a major political story (I forget what it was but I'm pretty sure it was about Trump corruption) in the bottom left corner of the second second's front page — and just a few inches.
Agreed. It's become all about pages views and clicks. News judgement and fairness have gone out the window. That's why independent content producers are crushing it right now.
I know this is anecdotal, but I voted early yesterday. There seemed to be an energy in that place that I had not seen before in early voting, especially for a primary. Everyone there seemed focused, like there was important business to take care of. When I asked the poll worker what turnout was like, he said “good”. And this was around 3:00 in the afternoon, when most people are at work.
Granted, it’s a liberal precinct and only one of thousands across the country, but it gives me hope that the GOP will be trounced in November. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Just before reading this newsletter my husband and I were marveling at how trump was committing political suicide. How much stupider do you have to be than announcing that you will end subsidies for Medicare drug premiums this close to the midterms? Are MAGAs that certain they will steal the elections?
Really nice to read something upbeat for a change. My wife and I both have marveled at Republican’s insistence on backing an obvious loser. Only Senators who are retiring show even a modicum of courage in not falling 100% into line for a pedophile, rapist, misogynist, thief. And they like to pose as the party of family values and Christian guidance. Wow! Thank you Jennifer for today’s post!
While I really hate to disparage this animal, snakes have spines. Most snakes are harmless to humans but the poisonous snakes that exist in Washington I would never turn my back on. Including Tillis and Cronyn. I personally think that republicans are the "brood of vipers" Jesus was talking about.
Agreed, and why the term "invertebrates" is often used to describe our current crop of Republicans. Their principles gave way to a lust for power. Mammon over God for those who so loudly proclaimed their faith. Truly, a next of invertebrate vipers.
True story: I went to a “town hall” for a representative who refused to show up, and I had made a sign, “Invertebrates of Florida” which pictured an amoeba, a jellyfish, Rick Scott (senator) and Mike Haridopolos (rep who refuses to do in-person town halls). People who viewed my sign did not “get it.” One person even asked me, “Are you a biologist?” *sigh* They were confused.
Sometimes it takes a moment. They may have understood a few hours later. Great sign, though I wonder if Rick Scott fits - he seems to do very well cheating others and caring only about his own political and financial fortunes. My mind boggles at people who voted for Trump, but how did all those old people in Florida vote for the Medicare scammer? Truly incomprehensible.
I hope people realize that, in order to put the country back on track, Democrats need a substantial majority in both houses. If they have this, they WILL remake American to address unfair economy, corruption, and rule by oligarchy.
E Pluribus Unum means we all must be engaged to resist the fascism of Regime Leader Trump, MAGA, and the Epstein Class. Otherwise the motto will be “Gens Mea, Imperium Meum, “My Nation, My rule.”
The DJT regime and GOP enablers have made America much weaker, less safe and the world a more dangerous place. That won't be reversed anytime soon, but a reversal can start with the midterms ... and defending election integrity will be of the utmost importance.
I believe that public opinion polls are truly of limited value, and it's what I used to do for a living!
Read the Republicans' hips, not their lips. They don't really care about the results in November for some reason. Now what could that be? Why aren't they trying to sway people with their arguments?
Could it be that they will preempt the voting somehow if they lose? That's the real danger. It could definitely happen here, don't kid yourself.
I think some GOP elected representatives (senate &House) especially in very safe seats don’t really want the actual burdens of governing. Some prefer to be in the minority, to gum up procedural votes, throw bombs, appear on Fox, all while collecting the perks, etc. That’s their safe, happy place. Others may be planning their exits to lucrative corporate board seats or runs for governorships or for runs for the presidency in 2028 or 2032. There’s also the matter of legacy. Some who are quietly planning an exit after the midterms may be thinking hard about votes they’ll be taking. Will they be asking themselves want to be remembered for confirming Todd Blanche? I think that will give some of them pause.
I think you are a lot closer to the truth than people who think Trump has some nefarious plan to hang onto the majority.
Sorry, a cornered animal is at its most dangerous. I'm sure someone will feed him a plan.
Only if it is illustrated.
I hope you are right.
Thank you, Jen Rubin, for your strong, clear, consistent voice of reason and reality. Let’s stop fretting and get to work supporting any and all Dems wherever we are. When the primaries are over unity is our mission.
Yes!!🙌🏽
I agree that polls can be of limited value in predictability, but they do provide some insight into the direction of popular opinion. This is particularly true in political polls in terms of the trend they reveal when taken over time.
And the trend of public opinion for this cabal of characters is clearly one of diminishing support for the corruption and illegal activities of high-level U.S. goverment officials in general, and of The Con in particular.
I also believe that the complacency of Con-appointed Republicans and Congressional leaders stems from their belief that they have been told directly or indirectly by The Con they will be pardoned for their actions regardless of what they do. They are proceeding on that basis but will be surprised when some of them fail to receive that "Get out of Jail Free card" once The Con feels they are no longer worthy.
That worthiness will be measured on how they vote on the question of impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate.
I agree, the polls have limited value. I can see here in central Pennsylvania that Trump is at least not very popular with all the folks that had Trump signs and flags flying until the beginning of this year. Now I am only seeing it from one of the most deluded supports and the crap has all disappeared from another that seemed to be equally deluded. It looks like Republicans will take a brutal beating in November simply because their loyal base is shrinking and not willing to vote blindly for people that get nothing done and have been ripping them off for years.
Yes, indeed. ICE showing up in voting booth will be a certainty. DEMS also need specific policy agenda for Affordability including (1)elimination of tarrifs, restoration of prescription support for Medicare recipients, and so on.
No, that's conspiracy thinking and it helps discourage OUR voters.
Sorry, but I believe that Trump will definitely employ ICE and/or the military to intimidate voters. Remember when black voters stood in line for 14 hours and then they closed the voting? I clearly remember that.
Remember? I was there! It was up to 5-6 hours in inner city Cleveland and Columbus and almost 12 hours on one liberal college campus (Kenyon). They did NOT "close the voting." By law if you are in line at 7:30 they have to let you vote. Kenyon cancelled classes and exams. I was at a polling place in 2006 with a long line at one precinct because they never got the full staff of voters they asked for. We were the for another hour and a half.
There was no military and no ICE (both of which are illegal to deploy to polling places, and they don't have the numbers or the maps to do this effectively). What our former Secretary of Voter Suppress... I mean STATE ... Ken Blackwell did was provide too few resources and workers but ONLY to inner city polling places — not to upscale suburbs.
This is a state issue. Trump doesn't have the plan, resources or legal authority to do this.
Worry about November, not January. He has no "plan." Planning is well out of his skill set.
but not out of the skill set of the Project 2025 masterminds who will be working to preserve their ability to implement it and its sequels.
Agree 100%.
The lame media decided to make a "thing" out of the DNC's lack of money. I can suggest a reason why the DNC doesn't have money: I'm giving money DIRECTLY to the candidates who evince my values, and so are my friends. We are not trusting the DNC to apportion it to our liking. Same with all of you? I may be supporting people who "cannot win" (so THEY say) but I'm not supporting weaklings bowing to the corporate agenda anymore. And yes, it is too early for a national Dem platform. We need to win individual districts and states where candidates need to have different platforms to win. A national agenda at this point would be political suicide. There's a good reason the mainstream media is lame.
My husband and I are doing the same thing, Thomas, and so are all of our friends. We haven't supported the DNC for years. They are completely out of touch.
Hear, Hear!
All politics are indeed local.
There's a reason for that. The DNC isn't really involved in this year's elections; it's more to support presidential elections. Its lack of money this year is almost completely irrelevant to everyone but the "mainstream" media.
Yep, that's exactly what I'm doing. I do not trust the DNC with Ken Martin at its helm to apportion the money to younger "squeaking wheels." Look how many Dem reps there are who are never heard from, while they're collecting their salaries, great benefits and the invariable extras.
Excuse me, but did you happen to notice the warning above: "They will need to avoid counterproductive internecine fights"? All I can hear/read in your above post is exactly that, a counterproductive internecine fight.
Have you actually followed the DNC? It hasn't tried to tell the world all that it's doing, so perhaps you don't actually have the stats. Apparently, the current DNC has been able to fundraise MORE THAN ANY OTHER DNC in the past. Now, you might claim that's a low bar. I don't, but you are welcome to your opinion.
And don't forget that part of what may look as though the DNC isn't doing enough to fundraise or that they don't have "enough" money is that the MAGA party is donating exponentially more than ever, so any other amount appears to be less than the usual.
That's false.
It's your money, for sure, and donating directly to individual candidates is absolutely up to you. But trying to convince every Dem that the DNC is a pile o' crapola is very definitely counterproductive and definitely a fight to make sure the DEMS lose.
I don't know about you, but that does NOT sound helpful to me.
Thank you @Jennifer Rubin for being the light in our current darkness called government. Your words ring true and are always so eloquently stated. Thanks for being a warrior for democracy!!
While you may be right that Democrats don’t need to broadcast a detailed agenda before the election, they’d better have one and be seen to be moving at speed to implement it ASAP after winning. We will have about a year to prove to voters that Dems can govern effectively before the 2028 campaign really gets rolling. If we end up looking just as ineffective as Republicans, that’s going to really suck. For what it’s worth, banning gerrymandering before 2030 needs to be done, too. Having fair elections that aren’t pre-rigged would be a great goal.
What you propose is only going to be aspirational unless Democrats can get super majorities to override all the vetoes that will be coming to thwart this agenda. I understand that the typical voter has no idea how government works and they will quickly blame the party that doesn't control all the power for their failures. The Dems need to focus on oversight and documenting all the criminal activity and advancing bills that will have the votes to override vetoes. It will take a Dem trifecta to ban gerrymandering and most of the agenda that we here at the Contrarian want to see implemented.
They have GOT to get something done besides confirming that Trump is a jerk. Everybody knows that, and “Trump is a jerk - vote for us!” is not a winning campaign in 2028 if 2027 produces nothing but oversight hearings. There should be some bipartisan ground to cover on cost of living reduction, and couched properly maybe even election reform that actually results in fair elections. Trump always wants something to claim credit for, so hire a couple of forensic shrinks and play him like a harmonica.
ScottD, this is the one place I disagreed with Rubin’s piece today. I am an independent voter (NPA) and I don’t find broad brushstrokes very convincing; we’ve heard them all before. I prefer comprehensive plans that can actually be enacted, not just dreams and visions. Elizabeth Warren did it well when she was running for Pres. More of that, please.
My usual standard is to require some notion of how the promises are going to be accomplished. For example, Trump kept yapping about “cutting gas prices in half!” Great! How are you going to do that? According to industry types, oil would have to go back to about $25 a barrel to get there. The US oil industry break-even point is about $65 a barrel. Think Chevron is going to flood the market to put themselves out of business? It was never going to happen, but TrumpChumps lapped it up. I don’t need a thousand-point plan from the Dems, but sanity-checked ideas would be welcome, with some kind of plausible way forward to follow, not just hot air and arm-waving.
Unfortunately if we hang our hats on that we WILL fail. You can't produce magic in this climate.
I love you but if you’re worried about internecine warfare among Dems maybe you could drop the “whining” charge. An awful lot of positive programming and messaging has come from the progressive wing of the party and many many solutions. The party needs a big tent and focus on the common danger.
no prisons, no cops, no senate, etc. they need to STFU they are ridiculous
I don't get the "no Senate" thing. This is worth expanded energy for a constitutional amendment campaign? If we're going to go down that daunting road, I'd rather work on passing Move to Amend: "corporations are not people and money is not speech." That's the whole of it: it nukes Citizens United.
https://www.movetoamend.org
nobody serious even on the so-called left of the Democratic party advocates for those things. Not AOC, not Bernie, not Mamdani. Just as illusory as 'open borders', that nobody advocates.
true, but they have put it out there
Yes, some of that message is fodder for MAGA and is counterproductive. Reform is required but destruction is dangerous.
It's also not representative of most DSA candidates, just one extremist wing of that movement. Sure, there are nut bags like Darialisa Avila Chevalier, but pragmatic, accomplished politicians such as Brad Lander also fall under the banner.
The distinction between the DSA and DSA candidates is not going to register with voters, and frankly, why should it? They're members of the organization and a massive portion of their political identity is being part of the DSA.
All politics are local. Most people don't care what banner a person embraces. They want to hear how themselves, personally, will benefit. People (other than billionaires) are fed up with this regime.
People like us who are highly focused on politics are not the average voter. Here's just a few positions the DSA has taken: abolish police, abolish prisons, lift sanctions on Iran (not for a nuclear deal or to reopen the strait of Hormuz, just lift them), take over large corporations and nationalize industries, etc. And this isn't just something they posted online, the National DSA co-chair went on Fox News and embraced these positions.
Right wing media and PACs have the next three months to carpet bomb the electorate with ads, influencers, and media so that "Democrat" becomes synonymous with those positions. Kind of like how "Defund the Police" was a PR disaster for Democrats in 2020.
I follow your argument (that Trump is failing) but still worry that significant numbers of voters don't care. Just yesterday I was conversing with a MAGA man about a topic unrelated to politics or policy, and he threw in a comment about an actor who has Trump Derangement Syndrome. His comment wasn't just unrelated, unsolicited, and unappreciated - it was an indication that for MAGA people, the devotion to their new Savior is always front and center, always present, even when no-one is trying to convince them of anything. They will vote for him because in their nihilism they only see a blinding white light, not his corruption, his nastiness, childishness, and incompetence.
Yes, the hardcore will continue to vote for him, but elections are decided by turnout and independents. Those numbers in recent polling suggest he's lost so-called swing voters, and other polls indicate enthusiasm to vote is highest among Democrats.
Good points. I think the best way to win independents is to demonstrate (and if necessary, perform) competence. None of the culture war issues or arguments about you-know-who's corruption seem to resonate as strongly as just plain adult attitude and behavior.
90% of MAGATs can't afford to be Republicans. But it's all about the culture. .
Epstein is the least common denominator.
Exactly. There will always be a hardcore, but just because EVERYBODY doesn't see things our way we shouldn't be tearing our hair out.
It's pretty hard to change the mind of someone who thinks the Earth is flat, there is no climate change while the Earth is on fire or drowning and agent orange face is doing a good job. There are those people that are either unable to think critically or just won't.
Right. They don't and won't think critically because they're exhausted with all the bad news thrown at them all day and every day - they've given up their agency to their Savior.
The Trump cult is a religion.
It would be interesting if he established a Church of Trump after he loses the elections. There is a lot of money to be made by a tax-free business model. I.e., mega-church. But his brain is failing fast. We shall see...
THEY are the ones with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
"The best news of all for Democrats: Trump refuses to deviate from his losing message."
Trump's latest vanity stunt against affordability is the ordering of 250 Cadillac Escalades for the presidential fleet claiming that they (and he) will "look wonderful" in them. SUVs that cost in the range of $70,000.00 are going to be up-fitted with security features, bringing the cost per vehicle to around $300,000.00 (according to The Guardian article today).
The average age for personally owned cars in this country is 14.5 years. Is this a reflection of the affordability problem?
I'm afraid this a clear indication that Trjmp now believes he can do anything he chooses. No one Congress will do anything that will affect *their* situation. The Supreme Court is a roller coaster, sometimes opposing the president and too frequently agreeing to his specious claims. The only real guardrail left is the Federal Court system. All it takes to make our system of government work is honorable leaders and representatives. They seem to be few and far between these days.
Good grief, Steve. Another $75 million of the people’s hard-earned taxpayer money out the window. The felon is bankrupting us.😖
Yes, he is.
This column underscores why I became a Contrarian charter member. As Substack has proven, readers follow WRITERS, not necessarily the publications they wrote for. So when those writers realize this and create their own platforms, they have the freedom to blast away, and they make a ton more money. As Jen makes clear in this piece, legacy media is a hopeless relic guided by rote, and unable to pivot when the times are clearly changing. And for whatever reason, perhaps it's so they can keep their credentials to the White House, they aren't hammering away at Trump as they did with Biden. Jen, Norm, and all their partners in this venture are great journalists and communicators, but much more importantly, they are truth-telling patriots.
I would like a destroy the mainstream media. Just last week when I was at my sister's I was perusing her NY Times (yes, she still subscribes). One day they had a huge story on the front page about movies with collectible popcorn boxes, while burying a major political story (I forget what it was but I'm pretty sure it was about Trump corruption) in the bottom left corner of the second second's front page — and just a few inches.
Agreed. It's become all about pages views and clicks. News judgement and fairness have gone out the window. That's why independent content producers are crushing it right now.
I know this is anecdotal, but I voted early yesterday. There seemed to be an energy in that place that I had not seen before in early voting, especially for a primary. Everyone there seemed focused, like there was important business to take care of. When I asked the poll worker what turnout was like, he said “good”. And this was around 3:00 in the afternoon, when most people are at work.
Granted, it’s a liberal precinct and only one of thousands across the country, but it gives me hope that the GOP will be trounced in November. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.”
Senator Lindsay Graham on Donald Trump - Instagram post 2016.
Just before reading this newsletter my husband and I were marveling at how trump was committing political suicide. How much stupider do you have to be than announcing that you will end subsidies for Medicare drug premiums this close to the midterms? Are MAGAs that certain they will steal the elections?
Really nice to read something upbeat for a change. My wife and I both have marveled at Republican’s insistence on backing an obvious loser. Only Senators who are retiring show even a modicum of courage in not falling 100% into line for a pedophile, rapist, misogynist, thief. And they like to pose as the party of family values and Christian guidance. Wow! Thank you Jennifer for today’s post!
Barely a "modicum" of courage. The lack of principles or spines is one of the most revolting realities of the Trump era.
While I really hate to disparage this animal, snakes have spines. Most snakes are harmless to humans but the poisonous snakes that exist in Washington I would never turn my back on. Including Tillis and Cronyn. I personally think that republicans are the "brood of vipers" Jesus was talking about.
Agreed, and why the term "invertebrates" is often used to describe our current crop of Republicans. Their principles gave way to a lust for power. Mammon over God for those who so loudly proclaimed their faith. Truly, a next of invertebrate vipers.
True story: I went to a “town hall” for a representative who refused to show up, and I had made a sign, “Invertebrates of Florida” which pictured an amoeba, a jellyfish, Rick Scott (senator) and Mike Haridopolos (rep who refuses to do in-person town halls). People who viewed my sign did not “get it.” One person even asked me, “Are you a biologist?” *sigh* They were confused.
Sometimes it takes a moment. They may have understood a few hours later. Great sign, though I wonder if Rick Scott fits - he seems to do very well cheating others and caring only about his own political and financial fortunes. My mind boggles at people who voted for Trump, but how did all those old people in Florida vote for the Medicare scammer? Truly incomprehensible.
I hope people realize that, in order to put the country back on track, Democrats need a substantial majority in both houses. If they have this, they WILL remake American to address unfair economy, corruption, and rule by oligarchy.
E Pluribus Unum means we all must be engaged to resist the fascism of Regime Leader Trump, MAGA, and the Epstein Class. Otherwise the motto will be “Gens Mea, Imperium Meum, “My Nation, My rule.”
A clear justification for Democrats campaigning on a pro-democracy agenda.
The DJT regime and GOP enablers have made America much weaker, less safe and the world a more dangerous place. That won't be reversed anytime soon, but a reversal can start with the midterms ... and defending election integrity will be of the utmost importance.