The California Quagmire
If Democrats don’t get their act together, California could get stuck with a Republican governor
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California governor’s race has been a semi-dysfunctional scrum for months now. And the sudden exit of the once-surging Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell — amid allegations of sexual abuse (denied by the Congressman, who is also resigning his House seat) — may have tipped the state into a bizarre danger zone:
Voters could advance two Republican candidates to the general election in June.
On its face, the notion seems absurd. California is one of the bluest states in the nation and hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in about two decades. In the last gubernatorial election, Democrat Gavin Newsom received nearly 60 percent of the vote.
But the Golden State also has an unusual form of picking its leaders — called a “top-two primary” or, less attractively, a “jungle primary.” In short, the state does not hold partisan primary elections. Instead, it places all contenders on a single ballot, and the top two vote getters, regardless of party, advance to a showdown in the general election.
The unusual system holds the promise of producing more-meaningful general elections. If two Democrats advance, for example, that creates a higher-stakes contest than a predictable cakewalk for a Democrat over a Republican. And because more — and more-diverse — voters turn out for general elections, this system can make the results more little-d democratic as well.
The top-two system is also meant offer primary voters more strategic options. GOP voters could decide to support a moderate Democrat, for instance, over more conservative Republican unlikely to advance. And there’s some evidence that the decade-old system has reduced political polarization in the state.
Yet this system has a built-in danger. There is no ranked-choice provision on the state ballot, and no minimum level of support required to advance. That means that if a long list of qualified Democrats run for office — fracturing the party’s coalition of leftists, progressives, and centrists — a pair of Republicans could slip into the general election by garnering as little as 15 percent support each.
That bizarre scenario is now in play in the Golden State. Two relatively prominent Republicans are splitting conservative support and leading in recent polls, while more than half a dozen Democrats are bringing up the rear, all struggling to crack double-digit support.
For a brief moment, Swalwell seemed to be consolidating support as the Democratic frontrunner, poised to surge safely into the top two. But the congressman’s exit has again muddled the race, leaving Democrats flirting with an electoral disaster on June 2.
The poll numbers cited below come from a tracking poll conducted by the state Democratic party released April 7, in which Swalwell ranked third at 12 percent. The state party chair Rusty Hicks has warned of “the possibility – albeit a low one – of Democrats being ‘locked out’ of the general election.”
Here’s what you need to know:
Who Are the Republicans?
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Steve Hilton: Fox News Tory, Brexiteer
Age: 56
Polling: 14 percent
No relation to the Hilton Hotels family, Steve Hilton is an immigrant from the U.K., where he cut his teeth in politics, rising to become strategic advisor to Conservative Party prime minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012.
Hilton only became a U.S. citizen in 2021. He has established his American political bona fides with a fellowship at the conservative Hoover Institution, and as a longtime Fox News commentator. Hilton recently published Califailure: Reversing the Ruin of America’s Worst-Run State. (This critique is quite rich coming from a champion of the 2020 Brexit from the European Union, which has been a disaster for the U.K. economy. California, meanwhile, just overtook Japan to become the 4th largest economy in the world.)
An abortion opponent, Hilton has said he’d allow Louisiana to extradite California doctors who mail abortion drugs to patients in that state. To dubious benefit in California, where the president has a 25 percent approval rating, Hilton also enjoys Donald Trump’s backing. In an April Truth Social post, Trump touted Hilton “a truly fine man” to succeed term limited incumbent “Gavin Newscum,“ insisting: “Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT.”
Chad Bianco: Far-Right Sheriff, Former Oath Keeper
Age: 58
Polling: 14 percent
Bianco, the Sheriff of Riverside County, is a far right extremist. He was a member of the Oath Keepers prior to that group helping instigate in the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Even afterward, Bianco defended his affiliation with the militia: “There is nothing wrong or sinister with me joining,” he said, claiming of the Oath Keepers: “They stand for protecting the constitution.”
Bianco has been linked to an extremist movement of “constitutional sheriffs” who believe they, not legislators or judges, are the highest arbiters of law in their jurisdictions, and can choose not to enforce laws they personally disagree with. (Bianco infamously disregarded enforcement of pandemic-era health mandates.) More recently, Bianco has undermined election integrity, seizing half a million county ballots in an attempt to cast doubt on the results of California’s redistricting referendum last November.
His platform? Bianco calls environmental activism “terrorism,” wants to greenlight oil drilling, and seeks an end to sanctuary cities.
Who Are the Democrats?
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Tom Steyer: Billionaire, Environmentalist, 2020 Presidential Also Ran
Age: 68
Polling: 11 percent
Steyer built a fortune in private equity at the helm of Farallon Capital, which he left in 2012. The billionaire has since been active in promoting green energy and progressive politics. He built NextGen America, an organization centered on bringing younger voters into the political fold.
Steyer ran for president in 2020, spending an astonishing $250 million to net zero delegates. In the current race for governor, Steyer is positioning himself as something of an oxymoron: a populist billionaire. His platform that includes building 1 million new homes, closing corporate tax loopholes, and expanding free public education to include community college.
Steyer has also been taking heat for past investments at Farallon, including a $90 million stake in a private prison company that now runs ICE facilities.
A poll conducted just as the Swalwell controversy was breaking indicates Steyer may stand to be the biggest beneficiary of his implosion.
Katie Porter: Congressional Fighter, 2024 Senate Also Ran
Age: 52
Polling: 7 percent
A protégé of Elizabeth Warren, Porter is a bankruptcy law professor at UC Irvine. She served three terms in Congress where she built a national profile by turning the screws to corporate executives whose companies exploited consumers, using a white-board to break down the math.
Porter left the House to run for Senate in 2024, and endured a bitter jungle primary, herself. Rival (and eventual victor) Adam Schiff financed ads that helped boost GOP candidate Steve Garvey, over Porter, into the general election — only for Schiff to crush the Republican that November.
Porter doubtless has the policy chops to do the work of governor. But she has been hampered by questions of temperament. (Her campaign stumbled out of the gate because of a pair of viral videos, one of a strangely contentious news interview, and another of an incident where Porter swore at a subordinate. Porter has admitted this behavior “fell short.”)
Policywise, Porter seeks to zero out state income taxes for families earning less than $100,000, while raising taxes on large corporations.
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Xavier Becerra: Former Biden Health Secretary, California Attorney General, Member of Congress
Age: 68
Polling: 4 percent
Becerra has the most robust CV in the field, with both statewide and federal experience. He served as Health and Human Services secretary under president Joe Biden and earlier as California’s attorney general. Before that, he was a 12 term member of Congress.
Becerra does not have a dynamic campaign presence, however. And he has been hampered by a scandal involving a former top deputy who pleaded guilty to a conspiracy charge involving stealing funds from a Becerra campaign account. (Becerra has not been implicated in the scheme and has insisted: “This was done completely outside of my vision.”)
Becerra has put healthcare at the top of his priorities, seeking a transition to “a universal, single-payer CalCare system.”
Matt Mahan — San Jose Mayor, Big Tech Booster
Age: 43
Polling: 4 percent
Mahan is looking to make a big leap from mayor of San Jose, where he’s served since 2023, to the Governor’s mansion in Sacramento. The forty-three-year-old previously worked in tech and is connected to some of the industry’s biggest billionaires including Sean Parker, Marc Benioff, Sergey Brin, Reed Hastings and others.
Mahan bills himself as both a progressive and a “pragmatist,” but he has a strained relationship with labor, and is easy to paint as a pawn of the state’s economic elites. Policywise, he is calling for a suspension of the state’s gas tax, while also vowing to freeze the state’s budget, promising to deliver “radical accountability, transparency, and zero tolerance for waste.”
Antonio Villaraigosa — Former Mayor of Los Angeles, 2018 Gubernatorial Also Ran
Age: 73
Polling: 4 percent
Villaraigosa was a long serving mayor of Los Angeles, holding the post from 2005 to 2013. He was by most accounts a middling mayor, leaving with a low approval rating and more than a few scandals in his rearview.
Politically ambitious, Villaraigosa has run for governor before, but fell far short in his 2018 run. Villaraigosa does have direct experience in Sacramento, having previously served as speaker of the state assembly, the lower chamber of the state legislature.
Villaraigosa is positioning himself as a “problem solver” and has pledged to end ICE raids in churches and schools.
Also running (and polling about 1 percent):
Betty Yee, former state controller, who is championing affordability.
Tony Thurmond, state superintendent of public instruction, who touts “a brighter future for California’s children.”
Tim Dickinson is the senior political writer for The Contrarian
I hear Kamala Harris may be looking for a new gig. How about NOT running for President again (no, no, no, no, no sirree Bob, no) and throwing her hat in the ring for Governor instead?
This would be a perfect environment for ranked choice voting.