The Iran Deal is Worse Than the War
How appropriate that Trump signed the deal at Versailles.
You have to wonder who suggested Donald Trump sign the Iran memorandum of understanding at Versailles, where 107 years ago the disastrous Treaty of Versailles ending World War I (and setting the wheels in motion for a far more horrific world war) was signed.
Trump promised at the start of his illegal war to extract an unconditional surrender. Certainly, the document does read like a near total capitulation — but not by the Iranian regime. Iran’s accomplishments are impressive. It remains in control with a grip on the Strait of Hormuz, keeps a robust missile program, and has no reason to abandon its proxy terror network.
Trump went so far as to bless Iran’s retention of a missile program (the same that killed Americans, struck our Gulf allies, and did immense damage to the region’s oil production). The Times of Israel reports:
“If other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for them not to have some,” Trump said in France, where he held a press conference on the sidelines of a G7 summit. “If Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some, I would say that in relative proportion, I think it’s okay” for Iran to have ballistic missiles as well.
“Missiles aren’t the problem…. They hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet (like nuclear weapons do),” Trump said.
Thunk. The Iranians certainly never expected to have an American president running PR for them.
But that is not the most inexcusable element of this diplomatic disaster: In return for nothing more than a ceasefire already in place (without consequences if it comes and goes) and Iran’s trite recitation that it won’t seek a nuclear weapon, Trump agreed to the immediate lifting of sanctions.
The Wall Street Journal flatly concedes the deal includes “a huge boost to Tehran’s oil industry, potentially restoring … more than $60 billion a year of revenue.” (Who needs pallets of cash when you have turned the gas spigot back on?)
As part of the deal, the U.S. will lift its blockade and Iran will reopen the strait, but Iran did not give up the right to impose “fees” on carriers. Imposing fees and the threat of another closure of the strait effectively jettison the fundamental principle of navigation of the seas. (Any Democratic president would be run out of town for committing such a blunder.)
Veteran Middle East negotiator and author Aaron David Miller told me, “A flawed MOU follows a flawed war.” How bad is the deal? Iran gets much of what it wants while U.S. must wait for “concessions on the main event — nuclear,” Miller observed. “Everything else depends on negotiations.”
J Street’s Ilan Goldenberg also thinks the deal is a bust, one that is “much weaker than President Obama’s nuclear agreement that Trump walked away from 8 years ago.” Goldenberg reiterates that the deal “puts us worse off from where we started. The reality is that the likelihood of a follow-on deal on nuclear issues over the next 60 days or ever is extraordinarily low. Trump is not getting Iran’s enriched uranium.”
Outrage over the deal is building on Capitol Hill, from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) to Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE). Coons, among the most respected Democrats on foreign policy, told me via email, “The more we learn about this deal, the worse it appears.” Although Trump’s goals during the war shifted daily, “judging by the text of the MOU, it doesn’t seem like he achieved a single one of them,” Coons said.
Coons listed the missteps: “It abandons our allies, weakens our security posture, lifts sanctions and hands over billions to a hardline Iranian regime, all just to return to where we were three months ago with Iran ruled by a hardline, repressive regime, with drones, missiles, proxies, and an underground nuclear program.” Coons reminded me that “the costs of this war for our country have been enormous, including more than a dozen dead Americans, hundreds of millions in damages to equipment and weaponry, and domestic prices skyrocketing for gas and groceries.”
And finally, as Coons put it, “The easiest way to tell that even the White House knows this deal is a disaster? Instead of trumpeting it as his own deal, Trump is putting the eventual blame on JD Vance.” If he does, Vance may regret giving up the Ohio Senate seat to play second fiddle to our modern-day Nero.
No Democrat should be “welcoming” the deal to “end the war” as many ill-informed lawmakers’ rote written statements said. (Fortunately, none used the phrase “peace in our time.”) This is an unmitigated disaster entirely of Trump’s making. Lifting sanctions in return for no concrete concessions signals Iran, not Trump, is in the drivers’ seat.
And if you had any doubts about just how bad the deal is, take a look at the Israelis’ meltdown over its terms. (The Associated Press reported: “Israelis from across the political spectrum reacted angrily … calling it a disaster for Israel and directing their fury at one man: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”) It may well be that a more extreme, emboldened Iranian regime well outlasts the tenure of the right-wing Israeli government, the MAGA congressional majorities, and the careers of Trump apologists who delivered the worst strategic blunder in U.S. history.
Trump destroys everything he touches.
Netanyahu owns this. Be careful what you ask for.