Democrats may have gotten the race in Texas they have been pining for since 1993, when the last Democrat held a U.S. Senate seat. Rising Democratic star and state representative James Talarico — with an assist from FCC Chairman Brendan Carr (who pressured CBS to keep him off the network) and Stephen Colbert (who streamed the interview which then got millions of views) — won the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary against anti-Trump pugilist Rep. Jasmine Crockett. (Putting Talarico on Colbert’s streaming service provides a model for how resistance forces can evade dying legal media outlets, humiliate the regime and its docile outlets, and reap the benefits from the backlash.)
Talarico, without formally declaring victory (but urging every vote be counted), told his supporters late Tuesday night, “This is a people-powered movement to take on this broken, corrupt political system. Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope, and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.” Wednesday morning he said simply: “We’re about to take back Texas.”
The delay in vote counting was caused by confusion in Dallas County, the result of the state Republican Party’s refusal to hold a joint primary. Hundreds of Democrats wound up at the wrong polling place. At the request of both Senate candidates, a lower court judge ordered the polls to be kept open for an additional two hours. Paxton, who seems to delight in voter interference, then went to the Supreme Court, which ordered ballots after the regular closing time to be segregated. In the end, Talarico’s huge margin of victory made Paxton’s stunt irrelevant. However, this should serve as a cautionary, giant red flag for Democrats for the fall: prepare for MAGA hijinks and double down on educating voters about their polling location and the option of early voting.
The historic turnout for Democrats bodes well for November’s general election if Talarico and down-ballot Democrats can keep voters engaged. For the first time in decades, Democratic primary turnout (2.5M) exceeded Republican turnout (2.41M).
Meanwhile, Republicans will be mired in an expensive runoff between the seventy-four year old Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), doing his best to twist himself into a pretzel for the MAGA cult, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose multiple scandals and extremism make him an inviting target for Talarico, a congenial Presbyterian seminarian with appeal across the political spectrum.
Both Republicans will have severe limitations in the general election. Cornyn will have trouble exciting the base; Paxton will risk alienating all but the true believers. Voters would be forgiven for not knowing what Cornyn actually believes — and knowing that what Paxton believes is nutters.
A win by Talarico would be a critical step toward flipping the Senate majority blue. But it would be far worse for Republicans. Losing in Texas, the heart and soul of the right-wing Republican juggernaut, would no doubt set off alarm bells among Republican ranks. Republicans would be extremely hard-pressed to win a presidential election without Texas; and if Texas goes purple, far less conservative states will likely drift into the Democratic column as well.
One can hear the caterwauling if Republicans lose the seat in November. Does MAGA wackiness spell doom for Republicans in 2028 and beyond? Did Trump and the re-redistricting schemers grossly overplay their hand with Hispanic voters? If Republicans indeed lose the seat, knives will be out for Donald Trump for not weighing in during the primary and for poisoning the party’s well even in deep red Texas.
Democrats, however, should not get carried away. The Talarico-Paxton race would still be an uphill struggle for Democrats. Texas remains a staunchly right-wing state, and Republicans will start with an advantage in registration and money. If Democrats want to fulfill their decades-long dream of flipping Texas, they would do well to keep in mind three factors.
First and foremost, Democrats need to unite around Talarico and put any primary animus behind them. To her great credit, Crockett said exactly the right thing after a hard-fought race. “This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee,” she informed the public in a statement Wednesday morning. “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.” She added: “With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win. I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.” That’s how an adult handles a loss. It will take a full court press from Talarico, Crockett, and the entire Texas Democratic Party to unify behind Talarico and the other Democratic winners.
Second, Talarico — who speaks Spanish, did an effective Spanish-language campaign, and speaks of his faith in ways that connect with religious Hispanics — will now put Republicans’ strategy in Texas to the test. They have relied on 2024 numbers to re-redistrict seats, putting at risk some seats they counted as Republican in reliance on abnormally high Hispanic support. That support has melted in the face of inflation, tariffs, and barbaric ICE practices.
Talarico has embraced the immigration issue, arguing, “Instead of cracking down on cartels, we are cracking down on our communities. Instead of deporting gang members, we are deporting small-business owners. Instead of hunting down human traffickers, we are hunting down moms and babies.” Having criticized former president Joe Biden for not appearing to care enough about security, he insists voters want politicians who are “pro immigrant and pro security.”
With candidates at the top of the ticket who can pull Hispanic voters (Talarico for Senate and state representative Gina Hinojosa for governor), Democrats have the best chance in several election cycles to arrest the slide of Hispanic voters and to punish Republicans for the attempt to rig the midterms through mid-decade redistricting.
Third, Democrats, especially in the Senate, suffer from a geriatric problem. At thirty-six, Talarico would be the youngest senator. In contrast to political lifers (Cornyn, seventy-four, and Paxton, sixty-one), he would represent the next generation of voters.
He talks passionately to that generation about preserving the Americans who feel like they will not do as well as their parents. As he told Houston Public Media:
I think we need a new generation of leaders who are going to step up and take on this broken system to ensure that we have checks and balances, to ensure we have elected leaders who are serving the people and not billionaire mega donors, people who are actually going to fight to lower costs and revitalize the American dream.
His ability to generate enthusiasm among young voters, who often do not turn out for midterms, will be a key part of Talarico’s effort to construct an electoral majority.
In sum, Tuesday may have marked an historic moment for the Democratic Party in Texas, and therefore for the future of the MAGA movement. The Senate race will no doubt be among the most expensive races this cycle. After all, the prize is a critical Senate seat, a possible flip in the Senate majority, and a potential disaster for MAGA.
Dems need to be wary of electing faux Democrats like Fetterman, Sinema, and Manchin. I would think purple states are the places they are most likely to emerge.
The first Senate campaign I ever volunteered for was Beto O'Rourke in Texas. It was an extremely well run campaign utilizing a lot of high tech for the time. I sent many thousands of get out the vote texts and countless phone banks. To this very day I still have a pang thinking about Beto's loss. I learned a lot about how campaigns work, and I also, sadly, learned a lot about how the elections process in Texas works. Compared to the election interference we can expect in the midterms those practices seem almost benign today.
Given my past experience it's a tough choice to support Talarico despite the fact that I think he's a very appealing candidate. Ultimately, I will indeed support him because I think it's imperative to flip the Senate and we must try to win EVERY Senate race,- long shot or not. Texas voters are going to face many Republican imposed obstacles to voting. It will take an army of volunteers to try to overcome this anti-democratic effort. I hope others will join me.