Trump Has Lost More Than the Iran War

Nonstop blunders further erode our international standing

Donald Trump’s entire premise for the disastrous, illegal war against Iran — namely, that the U.S. military could topple the Iranian regime, permanently eradicate its nuclear weapons and missile programs, and thereby remake the Middle East — has been exposed as an absurd fantasy. His constant haranguing and threats to destroy Iran are empty, and only further erode U.S. credibility.

We cannot “win” the war. Instead, we have given Iran new, unprecedented leverage to control the Strait of Hormuz, enhance its regional influence, economically blackmail the West, and insulate itself from further attempts to dislodge its regime.

Americans know — his nonstop boasts notwithstanding — that Trump’s entire exercise is a canard; an ongoing reckless charade that only diminishes our munitions reserves and exposes us as a feckless power incapable of maintaining freedom of the seas.

According to a recent CBS News poll, nearly 60 percent of Americans describe themselves as “uncertain” or “frustrated” by the war; 76 percent feel the war has been harder (to put it mildly!) than Trump predicted; 67 percent want to end the conflict now; 60 percent grasp that Trump is not leveling with them about the war; and over 60 percent think the war is going very or somewhat badly.

Trump and his pack of sycophants who have been spinning the war as a great success can no longer maintain the pretense that we can achieve any strategic objective. “The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position,” Axios reported. This is a dramatic admission of our military limitations.

As recently as Desert Storm, we were able to decisively, swiftly impose our will on a lesser regional power after Iraq invaded Kuwait. However, “The United States no longer enjoys the sort of military advantage it possessed in 1991,” Robert A. Pape explained in Foreign Affairs. “Thanks to globalization, the systems necessary to conduct precision warfare are no longer the preserve of a handful of great powers: they are accessible to a range of actors who are now able to stand up to much stronger states.”

The entire mentality of absolute hard power dominance (and the testosterone-hyped, juvenile mentality of adolescent-minded officials such as Hegseth) no longer approximates international reality. Instead:

The United States is not capable of bending others to its will through the exercise of force at low cost. Far from guaranteeing stability and predictability, American power has become a source of volatility. Weaker powers have learned the virtues of defiance and disruption, and they possess the tools to impose huge costs on the United States and its allies and partners. The coming era will be one of more frequent crises, higher costs for protecting global commerce, and intensifying competition over the world’s strategic chokepoints. The rules of power that governed the post–Cold War era have withered away, and a more dangerous international order awaits. . . .

If the defining image of January 1991 was a laser-guided bomb entering an air shaft in Baghdad, the defining image of the Iran war is that of a small one-way drone, assembled from commercial electronics and launched by a mobile team somewhere along Iran’s southern coastline, soaring toward targets in the Gulf.

The MAGA toxic masculine hard power paradigm is utterly at odds with the demands of an effective national security policy. Unless we want to experience the sort of loss of international freedom of the seas, international blackmail, and humiliating stalled negotiations (that result from Trump’s unwillingness to grasp that he cannot bend Iran to his will without massive loss of life), we will need to devise an intelligent response to a changed world order. In other words, one that recognizes our vulnerabilities at “the world’s principal economic chokepoints—including the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz itself.”

A sane foreign policy approach would repudiate Trump’s demented view, which relies on spheres of influence, forever wars, and neo-colonial occupation. Such an approach would require greater integration with our allies, adept use of soft power, re-establishment of America’s moral standing, robust deployment of humanitarian aid, reinvigoration of international bodies (e.g. the World Health Organization, the Paris Accords), and — especially concerning the Middle East — development of alternative energy sources.

Unfortunately, Trump only appears capable of doubling down on the chaos, heightening our isolation, and infuriating allies, as he did in his mind-blowing about-face on a deal with Saudi Arabia. After reaching an agreement to supply Saudi Arabia with nuclear energy technology (something the Saudis have long sought), Trump pulled the rug out from under the kingdom when Israel squawked. Trump reversed course, suddenly deciding the just-negotiated deal “is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords.”

Appearing on the Sunday talk shows, U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz (could they not get anyone else to appear?) tied himself in knots trying to defend a deal that Trump agreed to but now won’t implement. Minutes after Waltz left the set on “Face the Nation,” Republican Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy slammed the timing of a nuclear deal with the Saudis, arguing that, “I know it’s a commercial agreement, but [it is one] that the world perceives as possibly, someday, leading to a nuclear weapon.”

As The Atlantic reported:

Advocates of nonproliferation contend that the U.S.-Saudi deal lacks the necessary guardrails to prevent that: no measures to prevent the sharing of uranium-enrichment and plutonium-separation technologies, no commitment by Saudi Arabia to comply with the safety standards of, and monitoring by, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Trump makes it up as he goes along, is prone to crumbling when he is criticized, and has proven he is unable to sustain a coherent strategy. Trump’s Abraham Accords condition could easily evaporate — just as his plan to charge a 20 percent fee for passage through the Strait disappeared overnight — depriving us of any leverage over the Saudis’ future nuclear ambitions.

Simply put, Trump has no clue what he is doing, so he overpromises then fails to deliver, which unsettles allies and demonstrates incompetence to our foes, thereby encouraging rogue states to test and defy us. His outmoded, entirely inaccurate worldview, aggravated by his penchant for lying, TACO capitulation, lack of foresight, and pathetic coterie of advisers, leaves the U.S. in a uniquely vulnerable position.

The way out of this mess is to do the opposite of what Trump wants: end the war, restore our historic alliances, revitalize the full array of soft power tools at our disposal, adhere to consistent principles that respect the international world order, and permanently shutter the “presidency for sale” sign (thus halting the era of unprecedented corruption that gives every regime and international player confidence that this president can be bribed and flattered into doing their bidding). It will take years to undo the damage he has done to America’s stature and influence.