Donald Trump got what he wanted. His preferred candidate — scandal-plagued MAGA extremist Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — clobbered a fixture in Texas politics, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). Cornyn became the second incumbent senator to lose in a primary, something that, until this year, virtually never happened.
Not one to look beyond immediate gratification, Trump likely could not pass up the thrill of at least seeming to manipulate his base to do his bidding, regardless of the results in the general election. He nevertheless procrastinated until the campaign’s closing days, when Paxton’s lead was already secure (and the risk of Trump’s embarrassment low).
Paxton has been Democrats’ dream opponent. “Since he became a state official more than ten years ago, he’s fended off criminal indictments, whistleblower allegations and an impeachment by the Texas House,” Houston Public Media recounted. “He was acquitted in the Texas Senate. His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce last summer on ‘biblical grounds.’” And that does not even include his Herculean efforts to invalidate the Affordable Care Act and overturn the 2020 election; zealous litigation to criminalize abortion; frivolous attempt to criminally investigate Beto O’Rourke; unrelenting attacks on immigrant nonprofit groups; alleged racist enforcement of voting laws; and an absurd plea deal sentencing former Waco Attorney Adam Hoffman “to 60 days in county jail for his sexual abuse of a minor over the course of several years.”
While the hardcore MAGA primary voters embraced Paxton, one can imagine millions of right-leaning independents and Republicans may be turned off by such a character. How many of those voters will flip in the general election to Democratic nominee state senator James Talarico, or just stay home?
Paxton’s win certainly puts Texas in play for Democrats, as G. Elliott Morris explains, thanks to “a potentially very weak Republican nominee in Paxton (scandal-ridden, polling 2-3 points behind Cornyn in head-to-heads against Talarico), a Democratic recruit who plays well with independents and suburban voters, eye-popping primary turnout numbers, a diversifying Democratic electorate, a continued Latino swing back toward Democrats in special elections, and Trump’s poor numbers in the state.”
Trump does not apparently care that taking down a Republican who would be more electable in November could deprive himself of a Senate majority. As he explained when backing Paxton, who he claimed “was also very loyal to your favorite President, ME,” over Republican stalwart Cornyn (“VERY disloyal to me”), it is all about him.
Ever since Trump endorsed Paxton, Senate Republicans have been hopping mad, but could they have been surprised? As Politico reported recently:
Republicans are coming to grips with a president who less than six months out from the midterms is focused on racking up a body count of lawmakers who have crossed him, asserting his control over his party and burnishing his legacy — putting the GOP legislative agenda and the survival of its majorities at risk.
They should have figured this out months, if not years, ago: Trump cares not one wit about their careers or agenda. Trump’s handling of the Epstein files or his anti-immigrant overreach (which forfeited Republicans’ advantage on their strongest issue) might have been clues.
Paxton very likely would have won the primary comfortably without Trump’s help. But having endorsed Paxton, Trump will not be able to hide from the fierce backlash if, as many Republicans fear, Paxton loses in November.
A Paxton victory aided and abetted by a wholly self-absorbed president would give Texas Democrats their first statewide win since 1994 (and the first elected U.S. senator since 1988) and deliver what could be the seat determining which party holds the majority. Moreover, a Talarico win would unleash sheer panic in Republican ranks.
The potential that Texas — Republicans’ richest electoral treasure trove and its ideological home base since George HW Bush — could slip through their fingers would be a fitting comeuppance for a party that has jettisoned every principle, parroted every Trump inanity, and twisted itself in knots struggling to cling to power.
Between now and November, Paxton’s nomination may well torment Republicans. In addition to unleashing another senator more willing to buck Trump for his remaining months in office, Paxton’s nomination means Republicans will have to fork out tens of millions of dollar trying to save a seat that would ordinarily be, at the very worst, “likely” Republican.
“National Republicans are growing increasingly worried that having Paxton as the nominee will force them to spend massively to hold onto the seat, sucking away resources from other top battlegrounds,” Politico reported. “Some among the GOP donor class say that if Paxton prevails the general election will be Trump’s problem to deal with, and think he will need to deploy MAGA Inc.’s $300 million war chest.” Even if Trump is willing to spend his own money (and why not hang onto it for another coup or his post-presidency?), MAGA Inc. millions spent on Paxton won’t be available for other races. No wonder Senate Republicans are seething.
In addition, down ballot Republicans in Texas will rightfully worry that Paxton will depress turnout and/or make it impossible for them to distance themselves from the most wackadoodle elements in the party. Paxton’s nomination compounds the difficulty Texas Republicans will have in holding on to re-redistricted seats whose lines were drawn with the (faulty) assumption that Hispanics would stick with the party.
Even worse, just as Republican nominee for the Senate Rep. Todd Akins (R-MO) became the poster boy for extremism and hostility to women in 2012, Paxton may well become the national avatar for MAGA craziness and scandal in 2026. What better example of dysfunction and grotesque corruption could Democrats ask for in making the case that we need a Senate to check (not accelerate) Trump’s mayhem and graft? (If things are bad now, imagine a MAGA controlled Senate with the likes of Paxton calling the shots.)
Certainly, if Democrats are to win this very Republican state, they will have to spend and organize as they have not done in Texas for decades. They must intensify outreach to Black and Hispanic voters. Still, while this remains an uphill fight for Democrats, few could have imagined a year ago that we would be discussing just how fragile is Republicans’ hold on Texas.
Republicans’ newest midterm headache highlights the toxic political environment and self-destructive revenge mentality Trump has visited on his party. Losing the Texas Senate seat, and with it the Senate majority, would be karmic payback for a party that has never managed to stand up to him.
When a warmonger, convicted fraudster, & sexual predator doesn't get what he demands, just threaten the end of civilization, more pillaging & plunder with apparent impunity?
The in your face corruption & criminality is a badge of honor?
We’re talking TX, which barely cares about Paxton’s issues. And they’ll go after Talarico without shame or regard for the truth. It’s already happening. Talarico needs to go on the attack now before he gets defined, a lesson that Dems routinely fail to learn.