Welcome to The Contrarian’s newest feature, the Daily Jolt, a midday hit to give you updates on polling, court cases, campaigns, Donald Trump temper tantrums, MAGA debacles, and more. Enjoy your Daily Jolt!
Republicans’ polling is horrific. Gallup shows a huge leap in party identification for Democrats. Their current 10-point lead is much bigger than it was when Dems took both houses and the White House in 2020. Meanwhile, an Equis Poll from this summer shows Trump’s Hispanic support plummeted to a measly 31 percent (h/t to Cook Political), with a third of supports saying they regret their vote or are disappointed. Democrats have a 21-point lead nationally with Latinos in the generic ballot and a 13-point lead in competitive districts. Even among Republicans, his “strong approval” tumbled from 52 percent to 41 percent and hit an overall approval low, according to a new NBC News Decision Desk poll; among all voters, his approval is stuck for a third straight week at his all-time low of 33 percent.
Republicans have zero national security credibility. Conflict-of-interest plagued Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff keep slobbering over Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, while reviled, grossly incompetent Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth conducts a polygraph assault on his department. Trump dubbed his illegal war that killed 18 Americans, cost tens of billions, and handed Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz “small potatoes.” Because of Trump’s war, gas prices for Labor Day were the highest on record, and diesel fuel is at an all-time high. (Axios reported that higher fuel prices have “cost the average U.S. household more than $760.”) Trump, meanwhile, will fly in his vulnerable Qatari bribe gifted plane.
Trump’s convention is a mess. An official-looking website for the Republican National Committee’s convention this week in Dallas redirects you to the Department of Justice’s “library of files related to Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender,” the New York Times reported. It was the handiwork of an “impostor website — at gopdallas2026.com — that earned a spot much higher in search results than the real site.” Scores of Republicans are trying to steer clear physically of Trump’s celebration of himself; he’s inarguably a political albatross around their necks. And now Republicans have been forced to give away free tickets to get people to show up.
Democrats need to learn how to respond to nonsensical, gotcha legacy media questions about obscure left-wing cranks. Watch Rep. Jamie Rankin (D-MD) on Meet the Press — or, better yet, Democrats should avoid altogether dying legacy media shows whose hosts are mired in moral equivalence and who waste time baiting them to attack fellow Democrats.
Don’t panic about those German elections. Democracy guru and frequent Contrarian contributor Kim Lane Scheppele explained: “a) the election is in Germany’s smallest state and while support for this party nationally is too high, it is nowhere near enough support to form a government at federal level, b) the AfD did not win outright yesterday but needs a coalition partner to govern and that is going to be tricky, c) far-sighted Germans who saw this coming amended the constitution and constitutional court act two years ago to prevent the Constitutional Court from being captured as Germany lurches rightward, and that will be a brake on the worst possible outcomes. SO the election is alarming but there are many reasons to believe that the ‘free basic democratic order’ (as they call it) is still intact and relatively protected.”
Trump is nuts. Now he wants to rename New Mexico. In a sane political universe, the 25th Amendment would have been invoked long along, and Republicans would be confronted every day with his serial nuttery and asked if he is fit to serve.
I’m also thrilled to be returning to Coffee With Contrarians tomorrow at 9:15 a.m. ET. Tune in to hear everything you need to know to start your day as we begin our midterm push and discuss some major legal wins.
So glad you are coming back to Coffee! Missed you.
Welcome back to “Coffee”! You have been missed.