The Callais opinion, which effectively struck down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, was a judicial abomination and a blow to racial equality and progress akin to the end of Reconstruction — a brief period of pluralistic democracy in the Old Confederacy when Blacks enjoyed voting rights and were represented in state and federal government.
As Ari Berman and Pema Levy wrote for Mother Jones in their masterful, historical deep dive into the history of racial disenfranchisement in the South:
During Reconstruction, racial equality was written into the Constitution through the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments. As a result, from 1865 to 1877, roughly 2,000 Black officeholders were elected. That number dropped to virtually zero once Jim Crow’s racist legal regime took hold just a few years later, as the federal government—led by the Supreme Court—abandoned enforcement of the Reconstruction amendments.
Callais threatened to repeat that pattern, setting the scene for dozens of U.S. House districts to be redrawn, and up to 140 Black- and Hispanic-majority state legislative districts to be erased.
Meanwhile, while redistricting battles accelerated in the wake of Callais, the weaponized Justice Department intensified its unprecedented onslaught to disenfranchise Hispanic voters through bogus legal maneuvers in state after state. Using specious claims of noncitizen voters, DOJ attempted to run roughshod over state and local leaders with the constitutional authority to run elections. But DOJ’s attempt to disenfranchise tens of thousands of voters (most recently in California and Washington), and to harass or even arrest suspected noncitizen voters imploded.
Two days ago, U.S. District Court Judge David Carter denied the Trump regime’s ludicrous demand that California set aside 20,000 ballots that might (or might not) have been sent to noncitizens. As Carter wrote:
Every generation in our history has witnessed repeated clashes between those who seek to limit access to the ballot and those who fight to ensure it…. If Plaintiff’s last-minute request for relief were granted, either party could create chaos for their own political purposes to disrupt the election process. Over 20,000 registered Californians would potentially lose the right that generations of Americans have fought to preserve.
The regime’s demand was so patently absurd, and so undermined by its track record of making false allegations of noncitizen voters in other states (including a Nevada gambit claiming nearly 16,000 noncitizen voters, who turned out to all be citizens) that Carter was compelled to slam the DOJ’s lack of credibility, holding:
The Executive’s requested relief, however, would wreak havoc and disrupt the election that is already underway, create a chilling effect on election workers and voters alike, and discount the votes of United States citizens. . . . If the Executive can discount votes and threaten an ongoing election due to unproven allegations, then our democracy is in danger.
If the redistricting scheme and the nationwide effort to wreak havoc with our election system in California and elsewhere were intended to discourage voting — especially among Hispanic voters — these tactics failed miserably. Time magazine reported:
Hispanic early voting participation is outpacing its levels at the same point in the election cycle in 2022 and 2024. Presidential election years such as 2024 typically yield higher voter turnout, which [Democratic analyst Simon] Rosenberg says makes the 2026 figures to date all the more notable and surprising.
“It’s almost certain that this heightened performance will carry over through Election Day, and that this will become one of the big storylines of the election,” he says. “It’s a universal trend that we’re seeing all across the country.”
This trend is most noticeable in states with high Hispanic populations, like Texas.
Michael McDonald, who runs the Election Lab at the University of Florida, concurs that he sees “eye-popping numbers for Hispanics” in Texas and elsewhere. “If Hispanics are showing up in force now, it’s almost with certainty going to change the overall … diversity of the electorate in this election cycle,” he says. If that trend holds, “we’re going to see larger swings to the Democrats in more diverse states.”
The post-Callais chapter of voting rights has not yet been written, or rather it is being written in the 2026 midterms. And unlike the prior incarnations of Jim Crow, a massive voting surge countering Callais, the redistricting gambit, and the current DOJ’s voter suppression scheme have the power to stymie modern-day Jim Crow architects.
Republicans’ effort to virtually eliminate Black and Hispanic representation (and to pocket seats that would otherwise have gone to Democrats), in addition to Trump’s rogue legal campaign to deny Hispanic voting rights, seems destined to fail miserably. Of the five re-redistricted Texas seats, at least three of these (the 28th, 34th, and 35th) seem likely to go to Democrats. Overall, the re-redistricting gambit may net nationally as few as two seats — at the cost of triggering a massive backlash that could have huge ramifications in statewide races.
In the U.S. Senate seats, as of this writing, Democrats are competitive in races in South Carolina and Mississippi, ahead in polling in Texas, and are cruising toward victory in North Carolina.
In gubernatorial races, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is well positioned to become the first African American and first female governor in Georgia, and the first African American female governor of any state in the U.S. Should Gina Hinojosa eke out a win in Texas, she would be the state’s first Hispanic governor since Texas joined the union. Together with California, where Xavier Becerra is leading handily, a Hinojosa win would mean that the two most populous states, totalling over 70M Americans, would be governed by Hispanics.
The MAGA Supreme Court majority may be trying to transport the country back to the pre-Civil Rights era, relying on legal fictions and willful blindness about the racist attitudes that necessitated the post-Civil War Amendments and the 1960’s era Civil Rights legislation. Chief Justice John Roberts’s antagonism toward the Voting Rights Act has been evident since his lawyering in the Reagan Justice Department. His majority opinions in Shelby County (striking down Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act) and Rucho v. Common Cause (blessing unrestrained partisan gerrymandering) provided cover for blatantly racist gerrymandering. His MAGA justices’ eagerness to do the bidding of the Republican Party is obvious. And yet, their handiwork in trying to prop up white Republican power need not be the final word on the future of multi-racial democracy in the U.S.
The dogged work of civil rights groups, pro-voting and pro-democracy organizers, stalwart lower court judges, state and local election officials and tens of millions of voters, especially Blacks and Hispanics, have driven the Callais counteroffensive (aided, certainly, by MAGA’s own track record of corruption, incompetence, overreach, and cruelty). In particular, the undaunted voters who have already cast their ballots and those who will — come hell or high water — make it to the polls by Nov. 3 are preserving the power of ordinary voters to choose their leaders, the cornerstone of our democracy.
In swamping MAGA cynics and mounting an unprecedented voter turnout, the multi-racial, pro-democracy coalition can write both the epitaph to the racist, authoritarian MAGA regime and the next chapter in American democracy. All Americans owe them a debt of gratitude.
Any sane person that votes MAGA automatically loses their “sane” designation! I have seen many disappointed Trumpers state their displeasure with the Grifter Thief Warmonger but say they just cannot for a Democrat! TOTAL INSANITY!!!
Polls are unreliable and I am not comfortable with any predictions. Indeed, I won't be comfortable until a Dem-controlled Congress is fully seated on January 3rd. We are in real danger and the rabid opposition is not going to give up.