What is going on with vote by mail?
So back in March, Trump issued an executive order which told the Department of Homeland Security to make a list of everyone in every state who is a citizen and at least 18 years old by election day, and those lists get sent to each state.
The Postal Service may only send mail-in ballots to the people on those lists, and they have to use a special barcode to track the ballots. If states send ballots to anyone not on those lists, state and local officials can be prosecuted by the federal government. President Trump says this is all to ensure that only citizens vote in the midterms.
I will just add that there is no evidence of widespread voting by non-citizens. We are talking about a few dozen votes over the course of 40 plus years, and out of more than 2 billion votes cast, an infinitesimal percent.
So basically, just ignore everything else from earlier this week. The states and others who sued over this executive order, the Supreme Court basically said they sued too early. They have to wait until the Postal Service rule is actually official.
Now as of today, Wednesday, August 26th, the Postal Service rule is official, so states can sue over it. They already have. I imagine those lawsuits will quickly end up back at the Supreme Court in the next week or so. And because the election is ten weeks away, if states have to comply with a new rule, it will really change how they do vote by mail. Some states start mailing ballots out in just a few weeks.
To be clear, Trump cannot directly affect our elections. States run our elections. It says so in the Constitution. Congress gets some say. The president does oversee homeland security. He can try to regulate the post office, which is a government agency but an independent one, with an executive order.
And yes, the president appoints members of the board that oversees the post office. Thirty percent of Americans vote by mail, and eight states vote entirely by mail.
Here’s what I think is going to happen. I think the Supreme Court will rule against this executive order for the midterms, but it might allow it to go into effect in 2028.
I just don’t see them allowing this rule to be implemented so late in the game. But I could be wrong. We’ll know more for sure in the next week or so.
So follow me, Ben Sheehan and The Contrarian for updates.
Ben Sheehan is a political commentator and digital creator. He specializes in civics education, which is showcased in his latest book, What Does the Constitution Actually Say?: A Non-Boring Guide to How Our Democracy Is Supposed to Work. Check out his Substack, Politics Made Easy.
