Last week’s midterm election results are not yet final. No one has been sworn in. But that will not stop a fleet of media types, politicians, and consultants from plunging into the 2028 presidential campaign.
The forthcoming nonsense will be supersized. You will soon be seeing an abundance of “top ten lists” of 2028 contenders and “frontrunners” analysis. You will hear which states will be in play and which won’t. And let’s not forget the incessant chatter about… get ready for it!... electability! (Does anyone remember that much of the punditocracy declared that Senator-elect Abdul El Sayed was unelectable right up to the moment he was elected?)
Naturally, the media and political machine have to be fueled with the next round of political chatter, lest anyone stray from their screens. But any and all talk of 2028 presidential contenders is, frankly, dumb. Worse, it’s a distraction from very real and important issues facing the country, the democracy movement, and the necessity of devising a united, aggressive congressional strategy to combat the death throes of a dying regime.
A nanosecond of reflection would remind political consumers that eventual presidential nominees are often not remotely in the picture at the end of the preceding midterm (e.g., Bill Clinton announced for president in Oct. 1991). At the time of the 2006 midterms, freshman Sen. Barack Obama had been in office for less than two years, and was far from being considered a top-tier contender.
A trip down memory lane from 2006: “Clinton led among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the Cook/RT Strategies poll with 37 percent. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts held second place with 20 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina landed in third with 12 percent. In the second tier, Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware ran fourth with 5 percent, and there was a three-way tie for third between retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas, Sen. Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, each with 3 percent.”
On the Republican side, the speculation is even more absurd. Before the midterm fiasco, most political insiders and media cable chatterers insisted Vice President JD Vance was vying with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the prime cheerleaders for the Iran War, as the “frontrunner.” Frankly, it did not take much foresight to anticipate that the blue election triumph would not be a boon for his career. Both Vance and Rubio’s political futures seem considerably dimmer after the worst Republican wipeout in modern history, with many Republicans (Vance in particular!) swiftly blaming the drubbing on the war that their boss illegally and unilaterally started — and that Rubio enabled and cheered for.
The unknowns about 2028 vastly overwhelm the knowns. Whether a leader will emerge in the Senate — or any serious aspirant will be trapped in an endless loop of legislative minutiae — is anyone’s guess. It’s likewise unknowable whether a governor’s perch (which Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker will occupy) and the opportunity to engage in a running battle with Donald Trump will prove advantageous…or if they will get tripped up in the messy, consuming business of governing. Those in the ranks of the unemployed (e.g., Pete Buttigieg, former vice president Kamala Harris, and soon-to-be departing Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and California Gov. Gavin Newsom) may enjoy freedom from the responsibility of governing — or they may find it hard to remain in the limelight while defending their legacy (e.g., Newsom’s mass pardon of all death row inmates and senseless blessing of the Paramount merger). And, as was dramatically driven home by the terrible news of Sen. Chris Murphy’s stroke, anyone’s personal and professional calculations can change in a blink of an eye.
Moreover, issues that seem critical now (e.g., the Iran War, U.S.-Israel policy) may be non-issues a year (or even a few months) from now. Conversely, an infinite array of crises (e.g., another international epidemic, a worldwide recession) could swiftly change how we perceive candidates. And candidates who have all the money and support one could dream of (remember “Jeb!” Bush) could bomb on the campaign trail.
Twenty candidates might begin the primary race in earnest, but only a handful will remain after a year. Some candidates who people are convinced will run will back off, while utter unknowns may throw their hats into the ring. (Recall the months spent learning to pronounce Pete Buttigieg’s name?)
Political junk food feeds forecasting anxiety but distracts from essential coverage. For Democrats, time spent speculating whether Buttigieg or Beshear has a “better chance” at winning the nomination is a thorough waste of time that trivializes the issues staring us in the face, like an illegal/disastrous war and an insane Oval Office occupant.
All this should remind us that the senseless gamification of politics has been a decidedly negative trend in political coverage. Rather than play the “who’s in first place game?” and waste time consuming entirely meaningless polls reflecting only name identification, voters and responsible media would be far better off debating sober issues that should drive our politics. What critical threats to democracy remain? Which characteristics and positions are best geared to lead a broad pro-democracy coalition that could secure victory in 2028 and restore our country to full vigor?
For now, Democrats have plenty to consider — from their congressional leadership team and agenda to their relationship with legacy media (whose role can and should be downgraded in debates and campaigning in general). So for now, let’s dispense with utter piffle about 2028 polls, frontrunners, electability, and the rest. Keeping our democracy from the clutches of Trump and his Bond villain chief of staff demands our complete attention.
" it’s a distraction from very real and important issues facing the country, the democracy movement, and the necessity of devising a united, aggressive congressional strategy to combat the death throes of a dying regime."
Amen!
I could not care less about 2028. Let's first sort out 2026 and next year's resurrection of Democracy.
We have a lot of housecleaning to do before the next election.
The thing that matters most now is taking down Hegseth, Miller and Blanche. Vought too.