This Is What an All-Out Redistricting War Looks Like
Hint: Democrats could come out on top by 2028
With the aid of a hard-right Supreme Court, which is greenlighting even the most invidious forms of racist redistricting, Republicans are stampeding to draw new, hyperpartisan election maps that carve up House districts that have historically elected Democrats of color.
Politically, GOP leaders are hoping to blunt expected House losses in the 2026 midterms. But Republicans may have opened up an all-out redistricting war, nationally, that could see them on the losing side by 2028.
A new analysis by the election wonks at The Downballot shows that Democrats could, without doing anything outrageous, use their levers of power in state governments to target more than 20 seats now held by Republicans through redistricting. It is a strategy that has the backing of party leadership: “We are in an era of maximum warfare,” as Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries recently put it. “We’re going to keep the pressure on Republicans in every state in the union.”
Why do Democrats have this opportunity? Even before the latest right-wing redistricting blitz, Republicans in red states had embraced partisan gerrymandering in a way that Democrats had not. By contrast, many large, blue states had embraced nonpartisan congressional mapping as a reflection of a commitment to “good governance.” So while MAGA is now pushing this strategy to the extreme, particularly in the Deep South, the universe of seats left for the GOP to carve up for partisan advantage is, in the long run, much smaller.
The Downballot authors offer a model for redistricting that — while it pushes the partisan envelope for Democrats — is meant to be “politically plausible.” Specifically, it seeks to “maintain minority districts” and still preserve the intent of the Voting Right Act. (David Nir, one of the authors, writes that “Democrats can target many Republican seats while respecting the VRA,” calling those who describe the two goals as conflicting as painting a “false choice.”) The Downballot maps also seek to protect Democratic incumbents, to minimize the “cracking” of cities and counties into multiple districts, and to avoid “contorted” maps that snake half way across a state, where possible.
The result is a redistricting strategy that could put as many as 21 new seats into the Democratic win column in 2028. Courtesy of partisan gerrymandering, Republicans currently enjoy a built-in, structural advantage of about 10 seats in the congressional baseline. (This means Democrats have to significantly outperform Republicans in House elections just to secure simple majority.) But an all-out national redistricting offensive by Democrats could turn the tables completely.
Execution would require individual blue states to adopt a national perspective. Redistricting often also requires jumping through legalistic hoops — which can extend to enacting changes to a state constitution. In the abstract, this seems like a hard sell. But the lesson from California — where voters answered a partisan redistricting provocation in Texas by approving new partisan maps for 2026 by popular referendum — proves that voters understand the stakes, and are willing to fight fire with fire.
As voting rights expert Ari Berman explained to The Contrarian in a recent interview: “The counter moves” to the GOP’s redistricting blitz “are going to have to happen in the places where Democrats have power.” It means, he argues, that “they’re going to have to pass maps that you wouldn’t pass in ordinary times, that you might not even defend in ordinary times… to make the race for the House — and American politics writ large — more fair.”
In the Downballot analysis, states with the largest pickup opportunities stretch from the eastern seaboard to the Great Lakes to the Mountain West.
New York (+4)
The congressional maps in the Empire State have long disadvantaged Democrats. But New York, where Democrats enjoy strong majorities in state government, is now putting in motion a complex redistricting plan (which involves modifying the state constitution) that could net Democrats four seats — swapping out the current 19-to-7 map for a map built to perform at partisan a split of 23-to-3.
Virginia (+4)
The gerrymandering wars are moving to a new round in Virginia, after that state’s supreme court threw out a voter-approved redistricting map on a technicality. That map would likely have netted Democrats four seats, moving the party’s advantage in the House delegation from 6-5 to 10-1.
There are now two options on the table for the commonwealth, per the Downballot analysis: Have voters approve the partisan maps yet again, in a referendum process that observes the legalistic technicalities established by the court. Or, more simply, replace the term-limited conservative justice who wrote the pro-GOP opinion, which might allow the high court to revisit, and reverse, the egregious decision that overturned the will of Virginia voters.
Colorado (+3)
Colorado has embraced nonpartisan district maps out of a spirit of fairness that’s now outdated in American elections. Despite being a solid blue state, Colorado currently sends four Republicans to Congress, representing half of its eight-seat delegation. A redistricting ballot measure expected to head to state voters this fall could change that ballance to 7-to-1 by 2028, a three seat pickup — which would still leave conservative eastern Colorado with GOP representation.
Wisconsin (+3)
Wisconsin is about as purple as states come in American politics, but the current House delegation favors Republicans 6-to-2. Recent changes in the state’s high court and potentially its legislature in 2026 could put redistricting that is favorable to Democrats on the agenda. The Downballot authors point to two scenarios in which Democrats could net three new seats in a wave election.
The pickings get a bit slimmer across the remaining states in The Downballot analysis:
Two-seat pickups are possible in both New Jersey and Minnesota. And in a trio of states (Illinois, Maryland and Oregon) that already perform very well for Democrats, the party could run up the score by adding another seat.
In Oregon and Maryland this would mean boxing out Republicans from any House representation at all — a move recently endorsed by Contrarian contributor Brian Tyler Cohen. He observes of the high-stakes fight now in front of us: “The right has spent fifty years building toward this moment. And they didn’t do it by offering blind deference to process or norms. They won by being ruthless.”
The aim here is not to replicate the GOP’s ambition for permanent power. Many of the maps being passed in places like California are explicitly temporary. The idea is to punish the MAGA GOP for starting this fight — so that the reasonable compromise is to pursue nonpartisan redistricting nationwide. This is also likely the fastest fix to the racist redistricting now underway in the old Confederacy, because the Supreme Court has declared that partisan (or non-partisan) redistricting is “nonjusticiable” — or outside its purview.
Read the entire Downballot analysis here. It’s a thought experiment well worth your time.
Tim Dickinson is the senior political writer for The Contrarian.
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