Republicans Are Right to Panic

Trump is dragging his party to electoral disaster

Donald Trump and his MAGA forces have lost the American people on virtually every significant policy issue. For all the whining from the left flank of the Democratic Party and legacy media’s coverage about Dems in “disarray,” Democrats have managed to present a remarkably coherent critique of the MAGA regime. They have also convinced voters that unless Democrats are elected to check Trump, his reign of terror, chaos, and incompetence will make their lives even more miserable.

The big, ugly bill has proved to be a big, ugly political mess for Republicans. It has not helped that “nearly half of Americans say they can’t explain the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — and those who can are much more likely to say it’s helped others, including the wealthy, but not them,” as Politico reported, citing the Public First poll. Republicans tried to rename the Robin Hood scheme to take healthcare and SNAP benefits away from working people to shovel more tax cuts at the super-rich (Republicans now cynically call it the “Working Families Tax Cuts”).

Whatever they call it, however, a regressive bill that harms ordinary people still stinks:

Americans see the megabill and tax cuts in general as helping the wealthy far more than the working class, according to the [Public First] poll…. That’s a particular challenge in a midterm year where cost of living is voters’ top concern and as frustrations grow with rising prices and the Iran war.

And in a notable warning sign for Republicans, only around a quarter of people who voted for President Donald Trump believe the working class got substantial breaks from the tax law, signaling how low public opinion is of the bill among their own base.

Republicans’ problems are not limited to a single piece of legislation. Across the board, “Voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7),” according to a recent Fox News poll. Even on immigration, “the GOP had an 8-point edge in April. Now, Democrats are preferred by one point.”

Meanwhile, Democrats are surging in generic congressional polling (e.g., +11 Emerson, +6 Pew, +7 Fox, +7 Quinnipiac) as Trump’s approval rating drags his party further under. All told, Democrats are enjoying a considerable advantage in enthusiasm. CNN’s latest poll shows Trump has now matched his all-time low in approval (34 percent), with 73 percent saying he is not paying attention to the important issues; 71 percent saying he has not done enough to lower prices; and 67 percent saying his Iran war has hurt the U.S. Trump also hit an all-time low approval (32 percent) in the Quinnipiac poll.

The Economist’s YouGov poll tracker finds that Trump’s “net approval rating has fallen to a record low of -25 [points] … [while] Trump’s net approval rating for his handling of inflation and prices is -43, the lowest it has been this term,” and 60 percent think he is spending too much on the war.

Trump talks a tough game, but Republicans can read these polls. As The Washington Post reported:

A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.

When Republicans are struggling to turn out their most reliable voters at this stage in the midterm cycle, they are in deep trouble. As the article noted, “The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections.”

The best news of all for Democrats: Trump refuses to deviate from his losing message. He denies there is an affordability problem (choosing to aggravate families’ economic woes with another round of illegal tariffs), insists the hugely unpopular war is going swimmingly, badgers Senate Republicans to make unconstitutional changes in our voting system (with the so-called SAVE Act) to cling to power, and tosses around invectives about “communism” that have zero resonance with voters.

With fewer than 100 days before the midterms, Democrats seem to have batted down a pair of false choices that corporate media, right-wing critics, and partisan activists anxious to score points against fellow Democrats have repeated ad nauseum.

First, Democrats need not choose between the economy and corruption/democratic threats. To the contrary, these topics are inextricably linked. Politico reported:

The slogan “fighting for an affordable American” was plastered throughout a steelworkers’ union hall in Pennsylvania’s swingy Lehigh Valley where [House Minority Leader Hakeem] Jeffries kicked off the final 100 days until the midterms. He was joined by Pennsylvania’s popular governor, Josh Shapiro, who will appear on the ballot this November along with 7th District House candidate Bob Brooks, a firefighter union leader. . . .

Brooks also shared his own vision to — as he said it in his speech — put “out the dumpster fire that we’re seeing in D.C. right now.” He named banning corporate PAC money, blocking congressional stock trading, raising the minimum wage, passing the union friendly PRO Act, setting term limits for lawmakers, cutting health care costs and ending overseas wars.

The most effective Democratic candidates (e.g., Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, Texas Senate nominee James Talarico) make clear that Trump’s rampant corruption and his oligarchy-run government are at the root of the economic system that makes it so hard for average families to get ahead.

Second, Democrats do not need a grand, meticulously detailed alternative agenda, as countless commentators keep insisting. Pundits in midterm cycles invariably harangue the opposition to present a detailed, multi-part agenda. In fact, a midterm is almost always a referendum on the party in power (especially when it controls both chambers of Congress plus the White House). Vowing to stop the chaos (e.g., rein in ICE), cease the giveaways to the rich, stanch corruption, and end the blank check for a disastrous war are more than sufficient for Democrats. Speaking in Pennsylvania, Minority Leader Jeffries committed to “ending the Trump administration’s tariffs, extending Affordable Care Act tax credits, repealing the Republicans’ co-called ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ and ending the war in Iran.”

In sum, Democrats are well positioned for November, but three months is a lifetime in politics. They will need to avoid counterproductive internecine fights, work assiduously to turn out voters (including independents and persuadable Republicans), prepare for Trump’s reckless attacks on election workers and fake fraud claims, steel themselves for the inevitable attack ads, and make smart decisions down the stretch about where to put scarce dollars. While Democrats are well positioned to flip the Senate as well as the House, no one should underestimate the difficulty in winning statewide races in red states that have not elected a Democrat in multiple cycles (see: Texas, Iowa, Alaska).

This is a generational opportunity to wrest our government from the clutches of authoritarian bullies. It’s an all-hands-on-deck moment, not only for the party but for our fragile democracy, which may well not survive two more years of trifecta MAGA rule.

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