Remember the boiling frog theory? As the frog rests in increasingly warmed water, it becomes harder — impossible, even — to jump out before boiling to death. In this snapshot sit-down with Jen, Adam Kinzinger, former Republican congressman from Illinois, uses the boiling frog theory to explain Trump’s horrific ICE policies and raids that are shocking the country.
“They went way too fast, and this is creating a backlash,” Kinzinger reveals, “And whereas if they would have done this over a period of 2 or 3 years….it’s the boiling frog, we may not have noticed it or may not have cared.” This interesting take sets the stage for the rest of the discussion with Jen, where the pair theorize on Trump’s threat of invoking the Insurrection Act, America’s descent into dictatorship, and the surprising way we can hit Trump where it hurts the most.
Adam Kinzinger is a former member of Congress from Illinois and was one of two Republican members who sat on the January 6th Committee. Make sure to keep up with Adam on his Substack, which you can find here.
The transcript below has been edited slightly for clarity.
Jen Rubin
Hi, this is Jen Rubin, Editor-in-Chief of The Contrarian. I’m delighted to welcome back Adam Kinzinger, the former congressman from Illinois. Welcome!
Adam Kinzinger
Yay, what’s up? Good to be with you.
Jen Rubin
Lots of action in your home state. Yesterday, a federal judge, barred the deployment of Illinois National Guard and Texas National Guard, and essentially says, you people are making it worse. Are you surprised that Trump is having so little luck in court these days that judges seem to have had it, and frankly don’t believe what his lawyers are telling them?
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, no, I’m not too surprised, because this is… I mean, to me, this is clearly a violation of, I mean, is it the letter of the law, certainly the spirit of the law and the Constitution? I mean, I think the thing, again, people need to remember is when a… when a National Guard group is federalized, okay, so that means without the consent of the governor in the state. So even if you send… even if the Texas governor consists to his troops being sent to Illinois. If the Illinois governor doesn’t, those are federal troops. And I think, you know, they have very limited what they can do in terms of law enforcement when they’re federalized. And I think the Constitution is really clear that that is basically only to be done in case of massive national emergency. And so, the big question here, Jen, is does the President turn around and invoke the Insurrection Act, which would, in theory, give him the ability to do this, but he would have to do that on the basis of, you know, there’s an insurrection or a massive national emergency. What that does is it starts the clock on the courts again, right? So if he declares the Insurrection Act, he acts as if that’s legal and valid. Then you have to go through the whole process again of taking something to court, trying to get it to the Supreme Court. I think what surprises me, and I guess it’s just… not how the Supreme Court operates is… I wouldn’t have been surprised if the Supreme Court would have just kind of come out of nowhere and blocked this, right? But I guess you have to take a case to them. But, I can’t imagine anybody that truly believes in the Constitution, looks at what Trump is doing, and says, that’s completely okay, and that’s completely in line.
Jen Rubin
Exactly, and you’re right, he may seek to go directly to the Supreme Court, as he’s done before. He may go to the Seventh Circuit, which is the Circuit Court. What is also interesting is, I think he thought this was going to make him more popular. It was going to show people he was tough on crime, or he was a big, you know, guy, he’s going to roll over these blue state folks. And all the polling we’ve shown is that people don’t like this. Amazingly, Americans don’t like when they put military people on the street over the objection of local authorities. Is this one of these cases, not unlike Jimmy Kimmel, frankly, or the tariffs, where Trump’s win turns out to be a political disaster for him and his MAGA cronies?
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, very well could be. Here’s the interesting thing. You know, initially… excuse me… initially, I was, like… I mean, and I am still upset at how quickly, kind of, these things have happened in 10 months, right? Yes. And I remember saying, and I think I’ve said it with you, this is…This was, like, my 3 years worst-case scenario, not 10 months. And… but it is possible… that that all happened so quickly. For instance, you have the deployment of these troops in… you know, and frankly, cities where there’s not really a ton going on, let’s be honest. And then on top of that, you’re watching ICE, you know, continue to now shoot people in Chicago, for God’s sakes. And, you know, there’s way more to that than ICE is letting on. You know, kidnapping American citizens. And I think… I started to think of this specifically last night. I’m like, it feels like America, and maybe this is just… my gut sense, and it may be totally wrong, but it feels like America’s starting to get a little fed up with what they’re seeing from ICE. And so, when you take that, combined with the federal troops in American cities. It may be that they went way too fast, and this is creating a backlash, and whereas if they would have done this over a period of 2 or 3 years, it’s like the, you know, the boiling frog. We may not have noticed it, or, you know, may not have cared. So, I hope that’s the case, but we’re gonna have to see. I just think that…you know, besides the most hardcore MAGA, and I can’t explain them, Americans just feel very wrong about American troops in the street. It’s just ingrained into who we are as a nation, and I mean, frankly, it’s ingrained into almost most humans, unless you live in a straight-up dictatorship.
Jen Rubin
Right, and I think you just said it, that it does feel like a dictatorship. You know, sometimes we think, well, no one cares, no one’s paying attention, but when something is this vivid, whether it’s Jimmy Kimmel, a comedian being knocked off the air because he criticized the president, or it’s troops in the street. Being so obvious about it, I think, Americans may have woken up a bit, and what they’re seeing, they really don’t like.
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, and this is the other point, is it’s not like the administration is being humble about this. I mean, look, here’s the point about the crime, which is, yes, anywhere you deploy troops, there’s gonna be a reduction in crime. Okay, I’ll grant that, that’s a fact, right? But we could also deploy a soldier, one soldier every 5 square feet of this country, and there would be no crime. I read the book 1984. I’ve seen how…you know, North Korea works. I know that there’s no crime when there are soldiers everywhere and everybody’s watching. The question is, do we want to really live in that kind of a society? And as, you know, as former Republicans, we used to believe that, states had rights, and states could make this determination. And if Illinois decided that they didn’t need troops in Chicago, that’s Illinois’ free market decision. And if they do need them. I mean, quite honestly, then Governor Pritzker would ask for federal support in terms of finances, and he would deploy his National Guard. And that would be totally legal, like what’s happening.
Jen Rubin
Yes.
Adam Kinzinger
The Louisiana governor wants the Louisiana Guard to help. Totally legal, not worth throwing a fit about, but when it’s the president coming in and legitimately invading Illinois with Texas troops, that’s exactly.
Jen Rubin
Exactly. Exactly. You know, what was so fascinating is you now have not one, but two Republican governors who have summoned the spine to oppose this. The senator from Oklahoma, excuse me, the governor from Oklahoma, and the governor from Vermont. This is the first significant kind of crack in the facade, that you have not just one, but two Republicans, including one from Oklahoma, which is not exactly a liberal haven. Do you feel like this may encourage other Republicans? What are you hearing from, your friends in other states? Is this perhaps gonna finally kick these people into gear, at least governors who have an independent base of support and profile?
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, I think it’s possible that you may see a few more come out. They’re all cowards, let’s just be clear, and…
Jen Rubin
Absolutely.
Adam Kinzinger
You know, but it is encouraging. You know, Vermont, you understand, it’s a Northeast governor, he probably has the political ability to do that. Oklahoma, that’s a little more courageous, because that’s an 80% red state, and so… but what you see in that is somebody that genuinely, I believe, feels gross and uncomfortable about it. And somebody that recognizes, and this is the message that I think Republicans are so dumb in terms of not thinking about, which is, I’m sorry, you’re not gonna be in charge of the government for the rest of your lives. Democrats are gonna come in. And if they try to do what you guys have done. How in the world do you have the moral authority to say that that’s wrong? Because you’re gonna turn around and say, oh, you can’t deploy Illinois troops into Texas. Well, yeah, actually, you guys have made it clear that that can be done now. You guys fought for it. And so this idea that, you know, it’s a limitation of the human mind, which is like… I forget the bias, but it’s like current circumstances bias.
Jen Rubin
Yes, go on forever.
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, you never see anything changing. Well, they’re suffering that in the wrong way, which is they think they’re gonna be in charge, and I’m gonna tell you, there’s going to be a day when Democrats win, and my hope is that Democrats can both go after people that need to be gone after, people that violated the Constitution, that were corrupt, etc. while also still maintaining, you know, our democratic norms to an extent. But we do have to hold these people accountable, I think. Absolutely, absolutely. You know, there’s an interesting contrast going on.
Jen Rubin
Steven Miller, who is not Mr. Warm and Fuzzy, we put up a video, frankly, comparing him to a little bitty chihuahua, you know, barking all the time. He’s more and more in the news, and more and more out front. Isn’t that a good idea for this White House, or are Democrats and independents or former Republicans saying, yeah, make this guy the poster boy for the administration?
Adam Kinzinger
He’s such a dork! I mean, like… and I… look, nothing against dorks, you know, I was a dork when I was young, but he’s, like, maintained that, right? And then he’s taken the fact that he’s a dork and tried to turn that into, like, fiery speech. And and, you know, look, I think… he’s a terrible frontman for this. Now, maybe the Republicans love him, but I think the rest of America’s like, this guy looks like, you know, I can make comparisons, I won’t, because I don’t want to make news on that, but he looks like somebody that we can think of in history. And… but it’s like… I wonder, it makes me wonder if they’re putting him out front, because they’re like, this is your baby, and ultimately, if it backfires, he takes the hit for it. That’s what I don’t know, you know?Will the president defend him and what he’s doing till the end, or the president, if he sees the polls turn and America turn, he’s like, hey, this was Stephen Miller’s thing, you know, see you later. Either way, I can guarantee you that in 10 years, there’s not going to be anybody that’s going to want to be seen at dinner with Stephen Miller.
Jen Rubin
Exactly. This is like Elon Musk. You’re in, and then you’re not in. Suddenly you’re… I don’t know who hired this guy. Wasn’t he the guy who delivered coffee? You know, there’s no one he won’t kick under the bus. flip side, we’ve now seen a few Democrats, in particular, Governor Newsom, and now Governor Pritzker, who have really stood up to the President in court, rhetorically, how would you evaluate their performance, and do you think, do you hope that other Democrats will kind of model themselves on, you know, the way to deal with a bully is punch him in the nose?
Adam Kinzinger
I think they’re doing well. I mean, look, I think on the one hand. Particularly if you want to run for president, you have to fight the president pretty aggressively, and I’ll get into that. But I think you also have to paint a vision, and it’s gotta be a vision that’s not a far-left vision, you know, a centrist vision for America. I’m sorry, America’s a little more conservative than kind of the left of the Democrats. It’s more liberal than the right of the Republicans. So find that thing, and paint a vision for America, a future focus, because that’s what… I think America is starving for something, for, like, any kind of inspiration. But in terms of the actual how they’re taking on Trump, it’s perfect. The thing about Trump is. And particularly in Newsom’s case, and I have real issues with Newsom, particularly platforming, you know, Steve Bannon, etc, but on his specific, the way he’s tweeting and talking. The thing about Donald Trump is everything about him is built on this superficial image, right? This is why I make the point all the time that he smells bad, because it’s the dumbest thing to hit him on, but it bothers him more than almost anything, and it bothers his supporters more than anything, because his whole persona is based on this shallow thing. And so when Newsom mocks his tone. or Newsom, like, basically shows how much of a winery he is, or South Park comes out and says, I’m gonna sue you, I’m gonna sue you, I’m gonna sue you. It belittles him, and that bothers him. So I think that’s the way you have to fight it, while at the same time holding…You know, that you have to… you have to inspire people. You have to give them a vision. Hey, this guy’s an idiot, let’s mock him. Here’s where we should go as a country. And I think that’s gonna be the sweet sauce for, you know, between now and 2029.
Jen Rubin
Absolutely. Last question for you. The shutdown. I think Republicans thought Democrats would cave, and, you know, that wasn’t necessarily a crazy assumption, given their past behavior, but Democrats seem to have gotten their act together. They’re ramming home with day after day after day that this is about healthcare, you guys are going to get walloped. How do you evaluate what’s going on? Do you think, Republicans are eventually going to have to figure out a way to climb down from this?
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, they’re gonna have to, as long as the Democrats hold out. Here’s the deal, like, you know, and I made this point for months leading up to this. Like, the Democrats will not get the blame, they can’t, they don’t control government, right? Now, I think they did a very terrible job, Jen, in the lead-up to this. Because all Jefferies and Schumer should have been doing is saying, hey, we have no control of government. If you need us, you know, we’re here. It’s gonna cost, obviously, but, like, we don’t have any… it’s all you, you gotta figure it out. And but they’ve been able to turn that since this has happened, and, you know, the polling looks like people are blaming Republicans. The weird thing, though, is this is, like, the lowest drama shutdown. It’s almost like every time the government is shut down. in the past, everybody’s hair’s on fire until it’s fixed. It’s like…this shutdown, people are just like, yeah, that’s how dysfunctional we are, whatever, and they go on with their life. Now, the pinch points will get stronger when people miss paychecks, when, you know, flights get delayed, but as of now, it feels like, you know, I usually, every day forget that the government’s closed down. And so, I think the Democrats need to hold strong. They can say, like, look, we hate this damage that’s being done in the government. They’ve also, so far, called out Trump’s bluff about firing a bunch of people.
Jen Rubin
Yes!
Adam Kinzinger
He hasn’t done that. And so I think that’s gonna be important. And by the way, before we go, one point I want to make about Chicago is, like ICE shoots a lady 5 times, and says she tried to ram them in their truck and she was armed. Now, what do we find out later? I don’t know what the ramming situation is. I will say this, by the way. If people jump out at me with masks, don’t identify themselves, and try to pull me out of my car, it could get pretty messy, right? There’s somebody that has threats against them. But secondly, they also said, you know, look, this lady was armed. To make it sound like she tried to pull a gun on him. She was armed. She was armed and legally armed with a concealed carry permit, as you can get in Illinois. So these Second Amendment champion and advocates should be celebrating that this lady was legally concealed carrying, and instead they tried.
Jen Rubin
Yes!
Adam Kinzinger
Initially, as an attack against her for why she was shot, that’s insane.
Jen Rubin
Yeah, well, that is the ultimate contradiction. Gosh, who made that law that allowed people to have weapons with them? People might mistake that they’re being aggressive. So, crazy world. I know how much you must miss being in Congress these days, by the way.
Adam Kinzinger
Oh, gosh. Not a day. Not a single day, do I.
Jen Rubin
I absolutely believe you. Listen, Adam, thanks for joining us, thanks for everything you do, and you have new shirts out, you’ve got a new clothing line. What’s up?
Adam Kinzinger
Yeah, yeah!
Jen Rubin
Come on.
Adam Kinzinger
Go to WearThemOutProducts.com. So, a buddy of mine and I were coming up with these cool, like, designs, and it’s not like, you know, Adam Kinzinger stuff, it’s like cool democracy stuff. So, we did, like, Wear Them Out, W-E-A-R, wear them outproducts.com. Check it out, because I’m actually really proud of this stuff. It’s a soft launch, so we’re going to be putting out more products related to it. Like, women are saying they need the V-Net tees, we don’t have those, those will come out soon, but take a look.
Jen Rubin
They’re great. I saw a blue… bright blue one with a yellow eagle on, I was very, very shocked. Yeah, that’s a…
Adam Kinzinger
Democracy Hawk.
Jen Rubin
Absolutely. Good luck with that, Adam. Have a great weekend. We’ll see you soon.
Adam Kinzinger
You bet. Take care. See ya.
