There’s electoral gold out West.
In the race to take the House of Representatives, much of the action is taking place east of the Rockies. But a relatively small number of western districts, stretching from Arizona to Alaska, could have an outsized impact on which party controls Congress.
In recent elections, the congressional fight out West has been fought over broader territory. However, California’s decision to go all-in on the redistricting wars (as a counterweight to Texas’s pro-GOP machinations) has put several former swing districts safely into the Democratic column.
The electoral terrain in the West includes swing seats that must be defended, open seats that will be jump balls between Democrats and Republicans, and several GOP-held seats that could be ripe for the taking.
The Democratic candidates in these districts don’t fit the stereotype of left-coast liberals. They include some of the most centrist — and even center-right candidates — the party is fielding this election cycle. But they’re also the kind of caucus members the party will need to forge a Big Tent governing majority. Above all, they are little-d democrats who can help turn the tide against MAGA authoritarianism.
Here’s the lay of the land of ten western districts that could shift the dynamic in D.C.:
PLAYING DEFENSE
California - 13
The redistricting wars have left California with little swing territory. But Rep. Adam Gray’s district — in the Central Valley, anchored by the city of Merced — is an exception. Gray won in a squeaker here in 2024, taking the election by just 182 votes. Gray has hewed conservative in his tenure (supporting the Laken Riley Act and working to weaken some environmental standards, for example). He is also a prominent signatory of Promise To America (PTA), a pro-capitalist Democratic group fashioned in opposition to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and whip of the centrist Blue Dog coalition.
His opponent is Republican Kevin Lincoln, a Marine veteran who previously served as mayor of Stockton and lost a congressional bid in 2024. Backed by Trump, Lincoln has written that he’s “honored” for the president’s endorsement, gushing: “I will never let you down!”
Outlook (via Cook Political Report): Lean D
Nevada - 03
The third district sits at the southern tip of Nevada, including a swath of Las Vegas. Democratic incumbent here is Rep. Susie Lee, who has served a significant House tenure, first winning office in 2018. She bills herself as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress and a champion of public education.
Her opponent is Marty O’Donnell, a video game sound designer who worked on the Halo series for Xbox and wrote the Flintstones Vitamins jingle. Far less cool, his merch store sells pro-ICE bumper stickers.
He’s also been endorsed by Trump (“I look forward to working with him,” O’Donnell has written) and addressed at the Trumpy midterm convention in Dallas, where O’Donnell declared: “We have to give this president bigger majorities in Congress!”
Outlook: Lean D
Washington - 03
Washington’s third district covers the southwest of the state; it includes a jumbled mix of constituencies, including liberal suburban commuters to Portland, Oregon, as well as more conservative exurban and rural voters. For three cycles running, it has been one of the most competitive swing districts in the country.
The incumbent Democrat, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, has a mixed-up profile to suit her district. She’s a graduate of liberal Reed College, runs an auto shop with her husband, and likes to buck party leadership by veering right of center — including recently by helping Republicans tee up votes when Speaker Johnson lacked consensus among his GOP caucus. She bills herself as an “independent voice in Congress.”
MGP has earned the trust of her Trump-backing district and has done the country a solid — twice defeating Joe Kent, an extremist Republican with links to local toughs, who briefly served in the MAGA White House. This cycle, MGP’s opponent is a bit less of a wing nut. John Braun is a former Navy captain who has served as the minority leader of the state senate. But Braun still seeks to outlaw abortion statewide and has received Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Outlook: Tossup
OPEN SEATS
Arizona - 01
Encompassing Scottsdale and other well-to-do Phoenix suburbs, Arizona’s first district has been reliable Republican territory. But with the retirement of Rep. David Schweikert, the seat is up for grabs. The Democratic nominee is Dr. Amish Shah, an emergency room physician and former state representative who lost a bid for this seat two years ago. (Shah prevailed in the primary this cycle against the DCCC-endorsed Marlene Galán-Woods, a former Republican from John McCain’s political orbit.)
Shah is facing off against Jay Feely, a former NFL placekicker, including for the Arizona Cardinals, who has been endorsed by Donald Trump, who touts Feely as a “Highly Respected America First Patriot.”
Outlook: Toss Up
California - 48
This San Diego-area district has been served by the far-right car-alarm king Rep. Darrell Issa, who is retiring. The Democratic nominee is Marni Von Wilpert, a member of the San Diego City Council with a long record of progressive legislation. (Watch Von Wilpert’s interview with The Contrarian.)
She’s facing off against a county supervisor, Jim Desmond, who is Issa’s handpicked successor and endorsed by Trump. The president promises Desmond will slash regulations, “Champion American Energy DOMINANCE,” and “NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”
Outlook: Lean D
Montana - 01
This western Montana seat is up for grabs with the retirement of MAGA Rep. Ryan Zinke. The Democrat is a smokejumper and an AOC-backed progressive, Sam Forstag, who spoke to The Contrarian during his primary campaign about how our broken political system benefits the elites:
The Republican in the race is a radio talk show yakker named Aaron Flint. Trump has endorsed him, promising: “Aaron is a MAGA Warrior.”
Outlook: Likely R
ON OFFENSE
Arizona - 02
Covering a big swath of northeast Arizona, the second district encompasses many tribal lands, and nearly a quarter of the residents are Native American. Democrat Jonathan Nez has served as president of the Navajo Nation and ran a strong race against incumbent MAGA Rep. Eli Crane in 2024.
Crane is a former Navy SEAL and Shark Tank participant — he sold bottle openers made from bullet casings called “Bottle Breachers.” In Congress, he’s a member of the extreme-right Freedom Caucus. Crane infamously called on Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act during the ICE incursion into Minnesota, calling protests there a “communist insurrection,” adding: “I do believe President Trump should send in the troops.”
Outlook: Likely R
Arizona - 06
This district covers a southeast portion of the state including most of Tucson and a stretch of the border with Mexico. The Democratic challenger is JoAnna Mendoza, a daughter of farm workers who grew up picking cotton. She served in the Marines before becoming a “proud single mother by choice.” She’s recently been the executive director of the advocacy group VetsForward.
GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani is the incumbent. Trump gave Ciscomani his “Complete and Total” endorsement for helping to “Stop Migrant Crime.” The Congressman, a father of six, thanked Trump for his “leadership,” adding: “Proud to stand with you.”
Outlook: Toss Up
California - 22
California’s 22nd district is in the southern Central Valley and encompasses part of Bakersfield. Two-thirds of voters are Hispanic. The Democratic nominee is Randy Villegas, a political science professor who serves as a trustee of a local school board. He has endorsements from Dolores Huerta and Bernie Sanders. He’s running as a champion of working families, painting the incumbent Rep. David Valadao as a servant of corporate interests.
Valadao has been voted in, and out, and back in to office in this true swing district. In civilian life, Valadao was a dairy farmer whose family’s business collapsed into bankruptcy and stiffed its workers. In office, he’s been a fierce abortion opponent, receiving a 0% score from Reproductive Freedom For All. (To his credit, Valadao was one of only ten GOP House members to vote for Trump’s second impeachment.)
Outlook: Toss Up
WILD CARD
Alaska - At Large
Alaska sends only one statewide representative to Congress. Its last Democratic rep, Mary Peltola, is running for Senate. The current GOP rep, Nick Begich III, hails from an Alaska political family; his grandfather served in Congress, and an uncle was a U.S. Senator. Begich has Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement,” because, Trump posted: “Nick knows the America First Policies required to Create Great Jobs.”
Alaska has a unique, four-way, ranked-choice general election. The strongest contender to Begich appears to be an independent candidate — Bill Hill, an Alaska Native, longtime fisherman, and a school administrator who was recently named Alaska Superintendent of the Year. Hill has prominent labor backing, and his “Alaskans First” agenda includes a populist pledge to “make billionaires and big corporations pay their share.”
Outlook: Likely R
Tim Dickinson is the Senior Political Writer for The Contrarian
With the political landscape changing so rapidly right now, a repeat of this type of article in 2 weeks would be useful. But there, a nationwide list of possible Democratic pickups would be a better idea. I have a little cash in my donations jar held for the last moment and a late push to help some of the deserving candidates seems a good thing to do.
Now if we can just do a West Coast clean sweep including Alaska! Support the Dems out there so that they know we NEED them.