As Trump continues to erode the diplomatic thread between the United States and Western Europe, our NATO allies’ faith substantially weakens. Jen is joined by Tim Mak, live from Bucharest, to discuss how Trump’s isolationist foreign policy in alienating our European friends while hurting American interests in the long run.
Mak and Jen also analyze the consequences of the U.S.’ NATO withdrawal on our European allies and the threat it poses to international stability at large.
Tim Mak is an international journalist and the founder of Counteroffensive.News — a Kyiv-based publication that uses human interest stories to relay the news of the war in Ukraine. Their journalism tells the personal stories of individuals threatened by authoritarianism.
The transcript has been edited slightly for formatting.
Jen Rubin
Hi, this is Jen Rubin, editor-in-Chief of The Contrarian. Where in the world is Tim Mak? He’s in Bucharest. Tim, good to see you.
Tim Mak
It’s very, very good to see you, Jen.
Jen Rubin
What are you doing in Bucharest?
Tim Mak
Well, so I’m here ahead of a NATO industry forum, a conference that kind of brings together ministries of defense and alliance members, government officials, and the defense industry. And this is really important because you know, the NATO alliance is in this very perilous moment where American guarantees and assurances are not as strong as they once were, and what that means is Europe needs to spend a lot of money fast to kind of, back up their own militaries and ensure that they’re in a better position should they face any sort of, defensive challenges.
Jen Rubin
And what in particular is giving them difficulty? Is it the speed? Is it the lack of bandwidth that they started with? Is it the difficulty in coordinating with one another? What are the big challenges there?
Tim Mak
There are a lot of challenges now that… now that you put it to me like that. I mean the Europeans are not like Americans in this way. You know, the American, you know, American military commander in New York would never say, I’m not gonna buy something that’s made in Ohio. And the Ohio commander is never gonna say, that New Jersey equipment, I’m not sure, I want to buy in Ohio. So, Europe is obviously much more fragmented than the United States. And so, the German manufacturers, want the French to buy from them, and the French want to buy from the French, and the Germans want to buy… so that becomes this… that becomes this kind of mess within the European members of the NATO alliance.
There’s that problem, there’s the problem of having the funds, but then buying the right… the wrong things, you know? Not really learning the lesson of the war in Ukraine, and not focusing on emerging technologies like drone technology, electronic warfare, automation and still being stuck in the 20th century with tanks and armored vehicles and big, expensive stuff. Europe, and European governments are prone to loving wheeling out these big, gigantic, expressive pieces of military hardware.
But what we’re learning in Ukraine is that if a $1,500 drone can destroy your $8 million armored vehicle, it makes a lot more sense to spend a lot more money on drones and a lot less money on armored vehicles.
Jen Rubin
Absolutely. Now, as the Europeans figure this all out, which is this gonna harm the American defense industry? Obviously, we’re, in essence, losing some of our customers.
Tim Mak
Well, yeah, I mean, I think one thing that’s been really difficult to convey to Americans, to the full extent, is just how alienated Europeans feel, and how betrayed they feel by the Trump administration and his threats, his, you know, his, you know, longing eyes at Greenland, which is a territory of Denmark, a fellow NATO alliance member. And the degree to which that extends to European governments really not wanting to do business with the United States, not trusting… because when you buy a tank, let’s just say you buy a tank, you don’t just buy the tank itself. You buy services, you buy parts, you buy components, you buy into a long-term relationship where you have to trust that your counterparty is gonna be with you for a long period of time.
And until Trump emerged on the scene, there was really no doubt that the United States would back its European allies. If the Europeans bought a fighter jet, they wouldn’t need to believe, as some Europeans now believe, that the United States has a master button where they can turn off, you know, the F-35 jet. I mean, so there’s this suspicion, there’s this wariness of doing business with the Americans, and that’s going to hurt things with, with the United States for a long time to come.
Jen Rubin
Absolutely. Fascinating, fascinating point in our mutual histories. Let’s switch a little bit to Venezuela. What are the Europeans saying and thinking about this? As Trump goes kind of careening around without any congressional authorization, blowing up boats, the identities of which we’re not exactly positive who they are, what they’re doing. What’s the reaction been to that?
Tim Mak
Well, you know the USS Gerald R. Ford the aircraft carrier is headed right now for the Caribbean. And the place it’s leaving is the Mediterranean, right? So it’s leaving Europe where it had been set up in the Mediterranean, probably for operations related to Turkey, Syria, Russia, Ukraine, those types of operations. And it is now, instead, joining this fleet, which has been assembled, that is the largest, American naval presence in the Caribbean since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
And you wonder, I mean, what the Europeans think about it. They’re deeply puzzled and troubled by this. But they’re also… there’s also this kind of danger that as Trump puts all these assets in place, that he gets locked into a limited number of trajectories, where it becomes more and more likely that he uses the thing, that he’s spent so much effort, spent so much effort putting into place. I’m not saying there are no ways out. Of course, he can decide, as he often does, to just totally change his mind and not do anything.
But the more chips he puts into the center of the table, the more trapped he becomes into a more and more limited number of options. And I worry that it just goes down this slippery slope, where not everything always goes according to plan. Someone might get injured, someone might get killed, someone might get taken hostage. These, these, these operations are tricky at the best of times, with the most intelligent and capable and knowledgeable people. And that’s not what we’re looking at here.
Jen Rubin
Exactly.
Tim Mak
And particularly with the occupant of the White House. And so, I’m very worried that all this bluster is going to lead to some real violence and some second and third-order consequences we don’t really understand. And the thing is that the United States, under the Trump administration, has been so dead set against refugees and people, migrants, crossing across the southern border. But if he starts a war in Latin America, if he strikes targets in, in Venezuela and destabilizes the Venezuelan government, and or destabilizes Cuba, Nicaragua, Colombia, there’s been some talk about attacking Colombia, which has been a staunch an American ally, for the most part. There’s been talk about strikes in Mexico. I mean, these are things that are going to not only lead to a huge amount of suffering, but also create exactly the sort of problem that the Trump administration said it’s trying to stop.
Jen Rubin
Absolutely. I think that analysis is, so right on. And as you say, once Trump, gets in a bit, mission creep sits in. He starts firing these weapons, Americans potentially get injured, or worse. And suddenly, we’re involved in a full-fledged war. It would be nice if we had a United States Congress that actually authorized military action, and actually exercised the power of the purse to control this president. But so long as Congress remains completely compliant, and even indifferent to what Trump is going, is going to do, I think, Americans should be very, very worried, and Europeans as well.
Tim, thank you so much for your expertise and analysis. It’s always enlightening if also alarming, but Americans should be alarmed, and they should be focused.
And, next time we talk, perhaps we’ll talk about what happens if Trump’s big tariff scheme gets blown up by the Supreme Court. Talk about egg on his face then. But that we’ll save for another day. Thank you so much, Tim. Safe travels, enjoy your journeys, and we’ll see you soon.
Tim Mak
Thanks so much, Jen. Good to see you.
